A chain-link fence and barren asphalt lots surround what used to be the Hunt Valley Inn. The northern Baltimore County hotel, which for decades hosted proms, weddings and conventions, has stood vacant since closing in October 2023.

As soon as this week, a prominent local developer could submit a plan to raze the structure on Shawan Road, just off Interstate 83, and replace it with nearly 300 high-end townhouses.

But a key question remains: Will most residents be able to afford them?

The plan by developer Steve Keelty, whose family has built homes in the Baltimore area for more than a century, includes a mix of townhomes priced up to $600,000 and single-family attached units that could rise into the $800,000 range, a consultant for Keelty said. Both price points far exceed The median home sales price in Baltimore County was $341,000 last month.

The proposal comes as the county faces an urgent need for affordable housing, yet has limited space to accommodate it. And proposals to develop more affordable homes are often met with resistance.

At public meetings, residents have warned that the proposed new townhouses in Hunt Valley would be too expensive for many prospective homebuyers, who have already seen median sales prices in the county rise 5% over the last year. Meanwhile, advocates note the county is under a federal consent decree to add 1,000 new affordable housing units in certain areas by 2028. They worry luxury projects like this one raise concerns about meeting that obligation.

“When there is a development of this sort — high-end, certainly not affordable housing — going up, there are questions about whether this is evidence that furthers the argument of non-compliance,” said Roland Patterson, first vice president of the NAACP’s Baltimore County branch, which is a party to the 2016 agreement seeking to remedy the county’s legacy of discriminatory housing practices.

Gary Berman, Keelty’s consultant, acknowledged concerns at a recent community meeting about the townhomes’ affordability but expressed optimism that they would be “obtainable for a lot of people.” Keelty, he added, is willing to reduce the home prices to move it forward.

Berman said he and Keelty are pursuing the redevelopment because they live near the vacant hotel, which is close to two light rail stops and a large shopping center. They see the site’s potential to thrive.

“Honestly, it was a personal thing,” Berman said. “Steve Keelty lives here. I live here. And we wanted to make sure something nice got built there.”

Some community leaders have voiced support for the proposal.

Eric Rockel, president of the Greater Timonium Community Council, said that while the housing market should offer a range of options, developments aimed at homeowners provide certain benefits.

“There’s a lot of positives in terms of the occupants of the townhouses really being concerned about their community and not having just a passing interest that some apartment dwellers might have,” Rockel said.

He added that the county has “other opportunities for affordable housing.”

After announcing a plan in December to replace a Towson motel with over 100 reduced-price apartments, the county is on track to meet about 90% of its obligation to provide “geographically dispersed” affordable housing under the voluntary consent agreement.

But there are limits on how much time and land are left to achieve full compliance. The agreement upheld the county’s urban-rural demarcation line, which protects agricultural land and steers the required 1,000 affordable units toward existing population areas.

The county isn’t required to build the additional housing itself, but it is supporting private developers in such efforts. Some County Council members, however, have since slowed progress toward adding affordable housing in their districts — including at Lutherville Station shopping center, a few miles to the south.

The council has been much more enthusiastic about the Hunt Valley project. Last year, councilmen passed a bill by Wade Kach, a northern Baltimore County Republican, that amended zoning regulations to permit residential development there.

Then-County Executive Johnny Olszewski Jr. issued a rare veto of the legislation, which the county attorney claimed granted a special exemption for the hotel’s redevelopment unlawfully. But the council overrode the veto, 5-1.

In a statement, County Executive Kathy Klausmeier affirmed the county’s commitment to addressing its housing needs.

“Baltimore County is one of many jurisdictions across the state and country experiencing a shortage of housing, and we’re committed to an open and holistic development process that will continue to improve our neighborhoods and make Baltimore County a more welcoming place for all,” the statement said.

Along with affordability, residents have raised concerns that the Hunt Valley project, which abuts eight lanes along Shawan Road, would lead to increased traffic, pedestrian safety issues and more crowded schools.

In response, Berman cited a study showing that traffic would not reach the point where intersections were “failing.”

Matt Bishop, a project manager with the civil engineering firm Kimley-Horn, outlined plans for fencing and sidewalk renovations to improve pedestrian safety along Shawan Road.

The affordability question did prompt Keelty to have Berman and Bishop present an alternate, mixed-use plan for the hotel site to a sparse crowd of community members last week. The second proposal calls for 360 condominium units, which Berman estimated would sell in the $500,000 range, along with 19,000 square feet of retail space.

Keelty did not attend the community meeting, Berman said, because neither he nor his family are enthusiastic about the condominium proposal.

“They don’t want to do this, and they don’t want to represent to you that they are going to do it,” Berman told the few in attendance.

Instead, Keelty is treating the condo plan as a backup and moving forward with the townhome proposal, Berman said. After he submits a detailed development plan to the county, agency heads would provide public comments within three weeks. Interior demolition activities at the site would commence within 30 to 60 days.

The townhome plan, Berman said, is “going full steam ahead.”