In the contest to become Maryland’s next U.S. senator, Democrat Angela Alsobrooks and Republican Larry Hogan are in a dead heat heading into the fall campaign season, according to a new poll.
Alsobrooks and Hogan are tied at exactly 46%, with only 7% undecided among those who responded to a poll commissioned by the AARP that was released Tuesday.
National elections prognosticators have rated the race as “leans” or “likely” Democratic, but the AARP poll shows that the race is closer than some analysts have predicted.
“We’re hitting Labor Day. We’re hitting the point where more voters are going to engage, where surveys have a little more predictive value than earlier in the election cycle,” said Jeff Liszt, partner with Impact Research, one of the two firms that conducted the poll for the AARP.
The AARP poll marks the first truly independent poll — and the first poll of any kind — in months in the Senate race, and it may help set the stage for the 70 days remaining until the final votes are cast.
Alsobrooks and Hogan are vying not just for their own chance to represent Maryland, but for their party to control the Senate. Maryland is one of a handful of states where the outcome of the Senate race could factor into the balance of power, where Democrats currently hold a slim 51-49 majority.
Alsobrooks, in her second term as Prince George’s County executive, is fresh off a week in Chicago at the Democratic National Convention, where she got a coveted prime-time speaking spot and networked with party faithful from across the country.
She’s been pushing a message that control of the Senate could come down to how Maryland votes in this race.
“The stakes of this race couldn’t be higher,” Alsobrooks campaign spokesperson Gina Ford said in a statement Tuesday. “This race will determine whether Democrats defend our Senate majority or whether Larry Hogan hands Republicans a Senate majority and empowers Republicans to control the agenda for our country.”
Hogan, meanwhile, touted that his campaign hit a milestone of contacting 100,000 Maryland voters since the former two-term governor won the Republican primary in May — and that was before a canvassing blitz this past weekend.
Hogan said in a statement that the poll is vindication that despite being a self-proclaimed “underdog” in a heavily Democratic state, voters are responding to his message.
“The palpable enthusiasm of Maryland voters for independent leadership has given our campaign real momentum, and a chance to defy the odds,” he said.
‘Good news’ for both candidates
Liszt said both candidates can find good news in the AARP poll.
“For Hogan, the good news is he is reproducing a playbook that has been successful for him,” Liszt said.
Democrats hold a significant registration edge in Maryland, with nearly 53% of voters registered as Democrats, 24% as Republicans and 22% unaffiliated or belonging to no party at all.
That party advantage gives statewide Democratic candidates a head start, but Hogan cracked the code to win statewide twice in his races for governor in 2014 and 2018.
Hogan himself often says he needs to win nearly all Republicans, most of the independents and 30% of Democrats in order to win. And the AARP poll shows he’s close to that, with 83% of Republicans, 55% of independents and 26% of Democrats.
Hogan’s biggest advantage over Alsobrooks is among Republicans, independents, men and white voters.
Alsobrooks, conversely, has strong leads among Democrats, women and Black voters.
As for Alsobrooks, the poll identifies areas where she can find gains, Liszt said.
Part of the challenge facing Alsobrooks is that she’s not well-known among voters.
Poll participants were asked to rate the two candidates, with Alsobrooks having a 41% favorable rating and just 16% unfavorable. While the favorability balance is in her favor, it indicates a significant portion of the electorate doesn’t have an opinion of her.
Those are the voters Alsobrooks should reach out to, Liszt said. And many of them already plan to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris. Harris is running a 30-point lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump, the former president.
“There’s also good news for Alsobrooks here, which is that in order to win, what she has to do is win over voters who are already Democrat at the top of the ticket, and that includes a lot of Black voters, Democratic-leaning voters and young people in general,” Liszt said.
Hogan, meanwhile, may have hit his peak of name recognition and favorability. Everyone already knows about Hogan, Liszt said, where Alsobrooks has room to introduce herself to voters and try to get them to her side.
“There are probably more voters who are open to her or changing their minds in her direction, given there are more voters who don’t know her,” he said. “Gov. Hogan is a known commodity and everyone pretty much has an opinion.”
Motivated older voters
With the AARP focused on issues facing older Americans, the poll also posed questions relevant to seniors. The most important issues for those 50 and older who were polled included the economy, threats to democracy, immigration, inflation and rising prices, abortion and social security.
Asked about Medicare’s new ability to negotiate drug prices, allowed under the Inflation Reduction Act, 86% of those 50 and older supported continuing the policy.
The poll also found that 87% of voters 50 and older ranked their motivation to vote at 10 on a 10-point scale, compared to 79% of all voters.
That group of older, motivated voters could be a battleground between the two Senate candidates, Liszt said.
“Older voters have been the majority of the electorate,” he said.
“These voters could tip the scale for any candidate in this particular election,” said Hank Greenberg, state director for AARP Maryland. “If candidates really want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matters to these voters, like protecting Social Security, supporting family caregivers and lowering the cost of prescription drugs.”
AARP does not endorse candidates, but works to educate voters on how to vote, Greenberg said.
The AARP poll was conducted from Aug. 14-20 by Fabrizio Ward, a Republican polling firm, and Impact Research, a Democratic polling firm, by phone and text. The poll of adult likely voters included 600 respondents, with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. The firms polled several hundred additional voters 50 and older for the questions specific to that group.
