If the 2026 gubernatorial election were held today, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore would handily defeat former Gov. Larry Hogan, according to a poll out Tuesday.

Hogan, a Republican, has not yet said he’ll run for governor in 2026. But in the hypothetical posed by Gonzales Research and Media Services, Moore, a Democrat, defeats Hogan 52% to 38%. Ten percent said they were undecided.

Hogan earned a similar share of voters, 42%, in his November bid for U.S. Senate, losing to former Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who cleared more than 54% of the statewide vote. Alsobrooks was sworn in as Maryland’s senator on Friday.

The Gonzales survey covered multiple topics including what voters thought of Moore’s job performance and whether they’re for or against paying more taxes to help fill the state’s nearly $3 billion budget hole.

Moore’s approval rating ranked 61% among those surveyed — registered voters who said they’ll likely vote in the next gubernatorial election. This is a 3 percentage point drop from a September Gonzales poll.

Moore maintained strong approval among his party, 79%, and with 59% of unaffiliated voters and 33% of Republicans. Fifty-two percent of Maryland Republicans gave Moore’s job performance a thumbs-down.

Heading into his third year as governor, Moore faces a mammoth budget deficit he must resolve with lawmakers. That could mean some mix of spending cuts and raising revenues — yes, possibly taxes.

Raising taxes was broadly unpopular. The majority of survey respondents opposed hikes on property taxes — 77% — and 76% opposed boosting income taxes. Seventy-three percent opposed raising the state’s sales tax, with 55% strongly opposed.

Gonzales surveyed 811 registered voters statewide by cellphone and by landline from Dec. 27 through Jan. 4. The results have a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.