Maryland’s Senate race is one of a handful of federal races poised to decide which political party wins control over Congress. That means there’s plenty of polling, as the candidates and other interested parties search for indications of which way voters will go.
Republican former Gov. Larry Hogan and Democrat and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are vying for the open seat, along with Libertarian Party candidate Mike Scott.
The Baltimore Banner will keep a running compilation of polling. We’ll summarize recent polls, tell you what to know about how and why they were conducted — and who paid for them — and what they tell us about the state of the Senate race.
As the season charges toward the November general election, here’s a running list of the latest surveys.
UMBC: Alsobrooks leads Hogan, 48% to 39%
Who did the poll: The University of Maryland, Baltimore County’s Institute of Politics conducted the poll. Results were released on Oct. 9.
What they found: In the head-to-head matchup, Alsobrooks leads Hogan, 48% to 39%, among likely voters. Another 6% preferred another candidate and 5% were undecided.
Of those who made a choice, 78% said they were “set” in their decision, while 20% were open to changing their mind. Read more.
Methodology: The university polled 863 likely voters from Sept. 23-28. Individuals were reached by landline, cell phone and text-to web. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Key takeaways: In this campaign, Alsobrooks has pushed a message that Democrats need to control the Senate, while Hogan has professed independence from Republican leaders. Of the likely voters who were polled, 56% said they want a senator “who compromises to get things done” — a potential boost to Hogan. But 54% of those polled said they want Democrats to control the Senate — which would favor Alsobrooks.
Alsobrooks has been disciplined in her messaging about control of the Senate, not something that Maryland voters typically consider, said Mileah Kromer, director of UMBC’s Institute of Politics.
“The race is not just between Angela Alsobrooks and Larry Hogan, but between Angela Alsobrooks and Republican control of the Senate,” Kromer said.
Hogan has said that to win, he needs to win nearly all Republicans, most of the independent voters and about one-third of Democrats — a feat he accomplished twice running for governor. This poll shows he’s falling short in all three areas, with 76% of Republicans, 51% of independents and just 14% of Democrats.
“It’s been difficult for him to rebuild that winning coalition,” Kromer said.
Washington Post/University of Maryland: Alsobrooks leads Hogan, 51% to 40%
Who did the poll: The University of Maryland’s Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement conducted the poll in partnership with The Washington Post. Results were released on Sept. 26.
What they found: Alsobrooks holds a 51% to 40% lead over Hogan, with Scott gaining 3% support and 4% undecided.
Asked for their “general impression” of the leading candidates, 55% had a favorable view of Hogan, to 27% unfavorable, and 50% had a favorable view of Alsobrooks, with 22% unfavorable.
When it comes to which party should control the Senate, 60% said Democrats, 32% said Republicans and 8% had no opinion. Read more.
Methodology: The university polled 1,012 registered voters via landline, cell phone and text-to-web survey from Sept. 19-23. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points. Though the poll was of registered voters, 88% said they were certain to vote and 7% said they would probably vote.
Key takeaways: Michael Hanmer, director of the University of Maryland center that conducted the poll, told the Post that while Alsobrooks has made “headway,” many voters hold a favorable view of Hogan. Hogan has room “to rally people” who have voted for him in the past for governor, including Democrats who crossed party lines to support him, Hanmer said.
Hogan also performs much better than fellow Republican candidate Donald Trump, who is trailing Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential race, with 31% support compared to 63% for Harris.
Public Policy Polling: Alsobrooks leads Hogan, 50% to 33%
Who did the poll: Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning firm out of Raleigh, North Carolina. Results were released on Sept. 19.
What they found: Alsobrooks holds a 50% to 33% lead over Hogan, with Scott at 6% support and 12% undecided.
With Scott excluded, Alsobrooks leads Hogan, 52%-37% with 11% undecided. Read more.
Methodology: Public Policy Polling surveyed 543 registered voters on Sept. 16-17. The margin of error is 4.2 percentage points.
Key takeaways: Alsobrooks is building on a lead that Public Policy Partners found in a June poll, where she was ahead 45% to 34%.
Hogan and Alsobrooks have similar favorability ratings, 44% for Hogan and 43% for Alsobrooks. But a significant portion of those polled, 33%, weren’t sure whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of Alsobrooks — a sign that she’s still not well-known to Maryland voters.
Hogan continues to show some crossover support from Democrats, which is necessary for a Republican to win statewide in Maryland. This poll found that 15% of his supporters had voted for Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 election, in line with Emerson’s poll earlier this week and below what most analysts believe Hogan needs to win statewide.
Emerson College: Alsobrooks leads Hogan, 49% to 42%
Who did the poll: Emerson College in Boston conducted the poll in partnership with media organizations DCNewsNow and The Hill. The poll was funded by the parent company of the news organizations. Results were released on Sept. 17.
What they found: In the matchup between the two candidates, Alsobrooks has 49% support to 42% for Hogan, with 9% of those polled undecided.
Methodology: The poll questioned 890 likely Maryland voters on Sept. 12-13, using text-to-web and an online panel of voters. The margin of error is 3.2 percentage points. Read more.
Key takeaway: This Emerson poll tracks with one conducted by the college in May, just before the primary election, when a then-hypothetical Alsobrooks-Hogan matchup came out with Alsobrooks leading, 48% to 38% with 14% undecided.
Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Hogan is getting some support across party lines, with 15% of those voting for Democrat Kamala Harris for president also supporting the Republican Hogan for Senate. (In the presidential race in Maryland, Harris leads Republican Donald Trump, 63% to 32%).
With Democrats outnumbering Republicans and independents, Hogan would need that cross-party support to beat Alsobrooks.
Gonzales Research & Media Services: Alsobrooks ahead by 5 points
Who did the poll: Gonzales Research & Media Services is one of a handful of premier Maryland-based polling firms. They perform election polls and opinion surveys for politicos, special interests and trade associations. The poll was released on Sept. 4.
What they found: This poll puts Alsobrooks ahead of Hogan by 5 percentage points, 46% to 41%, which is still within a statistical margin of error. Eleven percent of voters said they’re still undecided.
Hogan scored better with white voters, 59% to Alsobrooks’ 29%, but Alsobrooks performed overwhelmingly better with Black voters, 78% to Hogan’s 16%. There was just a 2 percentage point difference between the candidates when it came to male voters — which is a good result for Alsobrooks.
Methodology: Gonzales surveyed 820 Republican, Democratic and unaffiliated voters by landline and cellphone who said they were likely to vote in the general election. The results have a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.
Key takeaway: Unaffiliated voters are inching toward Hogan. To win Maryland’s Senate seat, Hogan will need all of the Republican vote and help from Democrats and unaffiliated voters. The poll shows 41% of unaffiliated voters surveyed said they’d vote for Hogan if the election were held today, while 31% chose Alsobrooks.
Alsobrooks has 72% of the Democrats surveyed in her corner, according to the poll, but 21% of Democrats said they were going with Hogan. Hogan won Maryland twice with the help of moderate Democrats.
Alsobrooks also has a name recognition problem with more than one-third of those surveyed saying they didn’t recognize her name, including nearly three-quarters of those who are undecided.
AARP: Hogan, Alsobrooks in dead heat
Who did the poll: The AARP commissioned a bipartisan team of polling organizations to conduct the poll, Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research. The poll was released on Aug. 27.
What they found: Alsobrooks and Hogan are tied, with each earning 46% support among those polled. Just 1% picked another candidate and 7% were undecided.
As for candidate favorability, 59% had a favorable view of Hogan, compared to 28% with an unfavorable view — giving Hogan a positive spread of +31 points.
Hogan had a net positivity across the board among Republicans, Democrats and independents.
Alsobrooks was seen as favorable by 41% and unfavorable by 16% — for a net positive of +25 points. But the remaining 43% were unable to rate her favorability either way.
Alsobrooks fared well with Democrats and independents, but just 12% of Republicans gave her a favorable rating.
Methodology: Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research polled 1,258 likely voters, which included a statewide sample of 600 likely voters 18 and older. They also oversampled an additional 482 likely voters 50 and older and an additional 176 Black likely voters 50 and older. The statewide sample of 600 voters had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Respondents were reached via landline, cell phones and text-to-web. Read more.
Key takeaway: This poll shows the election may be closer than previous polling indicated. Both candidates are likely to work hard to shore up their areas of support and sway the relatively small batch of undecided voters.
Alsobrooks suffers from poor name identification, with many voters unable to offer an opinion of her. And her support among Democrats — 68%, compared to 26% for Hogan — is lower than expected for an elected county leader with a well-funded campaign.
Hogan’s support mirrors his two successful runs for governor, and he’ll want to maintain it through election day. Hogan’s weak areas are among women voters (-8 points to Alsobrooks) and Black voters (-18 for those younger than 50 and -52 for those older than 50).
Public Policy Polling: Alsobrooks holds double-digit lead over Hogan
Who did the poll: Public Policy Polling, a Democratic-leaning firm out of Raleigh, North Carolina.
What they found: Alsobrooks leads Hogan by 11 percentage points — 45% to 34%.
Methodology: The poll surveyed 635 Maryland voters by phone and text on June 19 and 20 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
Key takeaway: Alsobrooks has a better net favorability than Hogan (+27 points to Hogan’s +17). While Hogan is well-liked by voters, he’s also viewed unfavorably by one-third of the electorate.
And Maryland Republicans who aren’t keen on Hogan a third time around are hurting his chances. The poll reported that 26% of Republicans view Hogan unfavorably. In a state where Democrats double the number of Republicans, party defectors make Hogan’s hill steeper. About 8% of Democrats view Alsobrooks unfavorably, a smaller proportion of a much larger voting bloc.
The Alsobrooks versus Hogan spread hasn’t changed much since May, when Public Policy Polling found Alsobrooks had a 9-point lead over Hogan.