Starting at 7a.m. Tuesday, polling places across Maryland open their doors to voters for the state’s 2022 primary Election Day.

In some of the state’s deep blue strongholds, like Baltimore, results from Democratic primaries will all but determine the slate of new leaders. In other cases — such as the parties’ tight primaries to nominate candidates for governor — this summer’s results could tee up competitive and consequential November contests between Democratic and Republican opponents.

But experts and elections officials are cautioning Marylanders to prepare for days, or even weeks, of waiting before winners are clear in some of the state’s most anticipated primary races. The combination of a midterm primary in the vacation season of mid-July with this year’s surge in the popularity of voting by mail means the results of some races — such as the gubernatorial primaries, the Democratic race for attorney general and the battle for the State’s Attorney’s Office in Baltimore City — may not come into focus until after thousands of mail-in ballots have been tallied, a process that can’t even begin until Thursday morning.

Heading into Tuesday, hundreds of thousands of Marylanders have already cast their ballots at early polling sites or by mail. On the Democratic side, 116,358 voters participated in early voting and 151,230 had returned ballots by mail or dropbox as of Monday morning. At least 220,000 mailed ballots hadn’t yet been submitted. For Republicans, 51,604 voted in early voting and 34,989 had returned ballots by mail or dropbox. At least 51,000 ballots sent to Republicans were still outstanding.

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Four years ago, a total of 621,044 Democrats and 224,282 Republicans cast ballots in the gubernatorial primary.

The Baltimore Banner 2022 Maryland Voter Guide

Election judges at close to 1,500 polling sites across the state will begin tallying votes as soon as the last precinct closes — slated for 8 p.m. After that, the Maryland State Board Elections will begin posting results on the main page of its website.

What’s on the ballot

Tuesday’s elections are closed primaries, which means voters need to be registered Democrats or Republicans to be able to vote on most races. However, there are some nonpartisan races that will appear on primary ballots, including school board in Baltimore City and Baltimore County. All voters can vote in those nonpartisan races.

The headline race is governor, where nine Democrats and four Republicans are seeking to follow term-limited Republican Gov. Larry Hogan. Republicans have won three of the past five governor’s races despite Democrats holding a significant registration advantage over Republicans.

Two other statewide offices, attorney general and comptroller, are also open seats.

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One of Maryland’s U.S. Senate seats will be decided this year, as will all eight members in the state’s newly-redrawn U.S. House districts.

All 188 General Assembly seats are on the ballot this year — 47 state senators and 141 members of the House of Delegates.

And several local races will be decided, including state’s attorneys in both Baltimore City and Baltimore County and Baltimore County executive.

Vote-by-mail surges

As of Monday morning, more than 363,000 Maryland voters had cast their ballots, with over half that number coming by mail. A total of 498,444 ballots had been sent out to Maryland voters this year, most by mail but some via email and fax. That’s a larger mail-in voting volume than Maryland has handled at any point prior to the 2020 primaries, when the onset of the pandemic forced an exclusively mail-in election.

Of the mail-in ballots provided this year, 190,955 or about 38% had been returned. The Democratic primaries are likely to rely much more heavily on mail-in ballots that the Republican primaries. Registered Democrats account for close to three quarters of the mail-in ballots provided this year, at 371,468, compared to the 86,090 ballots sent to Republicans.

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If you opted to vote-by-mail, there’s still time to cast your ballot. For a mailed ballot to be counted, it must be placed in a ballot drop box or postmarked by 8 p.m. on Tuesday.

The waiting is the hardest part

The surge in popularity of mail-in voting could mean that Marylanders are left hanging for days or even weeks before the most competitive races are settled.

Under Maryland law, election officials can’t begin processing mail-in ballots until 10 a.m. Thursday, July 21, meaning a potentially decisive share of votes won’t be factored in until long after polls close their doors.

And in some of Maryland’s largest counties, mail-in counting could drag into August. Local election boards will hold a second canvass for late-arriving mail-in ballots 10 days after primary day, on July 29, but Maryland State Board of Elections Deputy Administrator Nikki Charlson told The Banner that large jurisdictions often need even more time to finish processing their mail-in volume.

That means some races might not be decided until early August.

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By far the largest number of mail-in ballot requests this year came from Montgomery County, at more than 115,000. Baltimore City requested nearly 50,000 mail-in ballots, and Baltimore County asked for more than 72,000.

How to follow the results

The first numbers to roll in Tuesday evening will be from early voting. As soon as polls have closed, election judges will be hard at work tallying Tuesday’s in-person returns as well.

It’s possible the combination of results from early voting and traditional election day will decide some elections, particularly in parts of Maryland with relatively little reliance on vote-by-mail. But elections administrators and experts have stressed that in many races, the leaders at the end of Tuesday night may not be the same at the end of Thursday night or beyond.

Once mail-in canvassing has kicked off on Thursday morning, the state plans to post new vote totals at the end of each day. Some jurisdictions will finish sooner than others, officials caution.

The next batch of counting will be provisional ballots, which will be reviewed starting July 27, with the final canvass of late-arriving mail-in ballots beginning two days later. Provisional ballots are cast by voters who may be in the wrong location, had previously requested a mail ballot or who need further review to ensure they are properly voting. Officials must review each to determine if the ballot is counted in whole or in part.

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Though winners may be apparent based on vote totals at different points in the process, the state doesn’t anticipate certifying the election results until the week of Aug. 8. Some candidates may be willing to concede their race while other may want to wait until final results are official.

adam.willis@thebaltimorebanner.com

pamela.wood@thebaltimorebanner.com

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