In promoting infield prospect Jordan Westburg, the Orioles put in motion a major reshuffle to their infield. The group has underperformed of late, particularly Jorge Mateo and Adam Frazier at the plate, and Westburg’s offensive upside could serve as a stimulant for the team as a whole.
The 24-year-old Westburg has risen to this point because of his consistent approach, his ability to hit for power and average, and his knack for getting on base.
In 67 games for Triple-A Norfolk, he’s hitting .295 with a .939 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. Although there’s no guarantee Westburg will adapt immediately to the higher level of competition, those numbers are strong indicators of continued success.
But it’s already a crowded infield in Baltimore, which raises the question as to where the Mississippi State product will feature most. He’s expected to be in the lineup Monday against the Cincinnati Reds, and his placement against a left-handed pitcher could offer the best hint as to Westburg’s future usage.
There’s a reasonable assumption, though, that Westburg will be in the lineup frequently. Because he is the third-best prospect in Baltimore’s system, according to MLB Pipeline, this promotion is more akin to Gunnar Henderson’s and Adley Rutschman’s advancements — that is, the Orioles don’t promote top prospects unless they’re going to receive regular plate appearances.
Before Westburg’s promotion is officially announced, there will need to be a 40-man roster move, as well as a transaction on the active roster.
Those remain to be seen, although it’s possible infielder Joey Ortiz is the player to make way for Westburg. Should it be Ortiz — who has played just four times this month — it will be the fourth of his five allotted options this year. But, with Ramón Urías, Henderson, Frazier, Ortiz and Mateo all vying for playing time in the infield, one of that group likely will depart for Westburg.
Beyond that, though, comes the question of how Westburg will be used. Westburg can play second base, third base and shortstop, although the latter is his primary position. With the Norfolk Tides, he also played six games in left and right field.
Westburg could feature mainly at second and third base early in his time with Baltimore, though, because of how the rest of the infield shakes out. Against left-handed pitching, Westburg is a logical second baseman to replace the left-handed Frazier. Against right-handed pitchers, Westburg can shift to third base, Henderson can move to short and Mateo can take a seat.
The logic there is that Westburg historically hasn’t been impacted by which handedness a pitcher is; this year in Triple-A, he’s actually hitting better in right-on-right matchups (.313) than right-on-left (.243). Frazier, meanwhile, is hitting just .196 against southpaws. Overall, Frazier is hitting .227 — he’s producing better against right-handers, so he could be reduced to more of a platoon role at second.
The same goes for Mateo, who could see his playing time decrease mightily as a result of the Westburg promotion, even if Westburg doesn’t play shortstop frequently. Against right-handers, Westburg’s slide to third base would allow Henderson to occupy shortstop, placing two young stars on the left side of the infield.
According to Baseball Reference, Mateo has 0.8 wins above replacement — a metric that factors all parts of a player’s game to determine whether he’s more valuable than the average replacement player with 0.0 WAR. FanGraphs, however, breaks down WAR by baserunning, hitting and defense, and it paints Mateo’s production in a more complete light. He’s a high-level baserunner and defender (2.5 and 5.6 WAR, respectively), but Mateo’s offensive WAR is negative-6.6.
After a strong April in which Mateo’s average soared to .347 by the end of the month, that number has dropped to .224 with an on-base percentage of .265.
“I just seem a little bit anxious, just trying to find ways to get on base, ways to get a hit,” Mateo said through team interpreter Brandon Quinones. “At the end of the day, it’s a business and the team is always going to look to make certain decisions, but I don’t get involved with that.”
Meanwhile, Westburg has cranked 36 home runs in 158 Triple-A games between this season and last. In 2023, the first-round pick from 2020 has 35 extra-base hits and he ranks as the No. 34 prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline.
Henderson’s defensive WAR is slightly below average (negative-0.9), but his offensive production (8.3 WAR) largely makes up for it. Urías, who earned a Gold Glove for his work at third base last year, will still be in the mix there, at second and at first.
And, even though manager Brandon Hyde said “shortstop defense does” a lot for keeping Mateo in the lineup, the offensive upside from Henderson and Westburg on the left side of the infield is enticing.
However the playing time unfolds, promoting Westburg now offers reinforcement for an Orioles club playing strong baseball. After Sunday’s win, they enter a three-game series with the surging Cincinnati Reds with the third-best record in the majors. They’re firmly in the postseason hunt as the All-Star Break approaches. They’re still within sight of the American League East pennant.
And Westburg should only aid the hunt for more.
