Don’t give up on Cedric Mullins.
That was the message I received from an Orioles staffer as Mullins was in the worst part of his early-season funk. Mullins was one of the league’s worst regulars and was spending his days doing early work, trying to regain his swing with the Orioles’ hitting coaches, and the results weren’t coming quickly.
Eventually, they did. He entered June batting .185 with a .557 OPS and a wRC+ of 56, well below the league-average of 100. He was striking out in 25.7% of his plate appearances with just a 5.1% walk rate. But Mullins has been much better since then, and it’s come at a time when the Orioles have needed it. He’s hitting .260 since June 1, with a .791 OPS and a 127 wRC+, a 16.8% strikeout rate and a 9.2% walk rate. Since the All-Star break, it’s an .846 OPS, a 13.8% walk rate with a 16.3% strikeout rate, and a 145 wRC+.
There have been a few improvements in there that feel pertinent as frustration around the Orioles’ general offensive philosophy is starting to bubble up, frustration that’s valid but seems like it’s not based on anything the staff actually coaches.
Mullins has improved his chase rate, for starters. He posted his two lowest months by chase rate in July (28.1%) and August (22.2%), which has led to better on-base results. He also, notably, had his lowest in-zone swing rate in August, and did a good job of focusing on the pitches over the heart of the plate he can drive.
He had a 20.3% whiff rate before June 1, and it’s been 19.3% since then, but there’s also been some changes to his quality of contact. Since June 1, Mullins has hit the ball on the ground just 24.8% of the time, down from 38.1%. That’s corresponded with a pretty meaningful drop in his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate (85.1 mph and 29.1%, down from 88.7 mph and 37.3% before June 1), though his actual and expected stats are much better since that dip.
While Orioles coaches didn’t give Mullins an explicit directive to elevate the ball, much of their work in that time focused on his load, and how he gathered his weight to move forward in his swing. When Mullins is right, he naturally hits the ball in the air more.
There are a lot of benefits to that swing work, though. There are hitters on the Orioles’ farm whose development plans are to try and maximize their contact in the air because of how their skillsets play otherwise. Last year’s top pick Enrique Bradfield Jr. is one of them. Mullins’ turnaround has been basically predicated on him hitting fewer ground balls and focusing on pitches he can elevate over the infield.
That may feel counterintuitive — players with Mullins’ speed are often thought to be the type who just need to put the ball in play and let their legs help them get on base. Mullins still boasts that speed to cause havoc when he gets on. But major league infielders are still major league infielders; their skills on the dirt and the advanced information that aids positioning have made it so ground balls are often scooped up and converted to outs.
But even as Mullins was struggling in the first two months of the season, he was faring well on balls in the air — a .274 expected batting average and .516 expected slugging percentage on such pitches. He’s hitting far more balls in the air in the last few months, and the results — a .297 expected batting average against a .323 actual one, and a .511 expected slugging percentage against a .637 actual one — have gone a long way to turning around his season.
Mullins is swinging at more pitches he can elevate and, as a result, doing far more damage, with his increased selectivity also helping him get on base more often overall. He feels increasingly like the best version of himself, and the promise of having that alongside all the other Orioles stars firing on all cylinders feels like a pretty attractive proposition down the stretch.
Ballpark chatter
“I’ve done this long enough I know that when I’m getting weak contact and making good pitches that things are gonna turn in my favor.”
– Corbin Burnes
I’m in the business of trusting Corbin Burnes and am more inclined to chalk up his August to batted ball luck and sequencing than anything more concerning. That said, August had the highest actual and expected batting averages and slugging percentages off him of any month, and among the highest hard-hit rates at 37.8%. Monday was a step in the right direction, and it needs to keep going that way. They don’t have a chance without him in October.
The talent pipeline
Left-hander Tucker Davidson, an offseason waiver claim from the Royals, struck out eight in seven innings of two-run ball Wednesday against Jacksonville to continue a very good season in the Norfolk rotation. He has a 3.61 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and 94 strikeouts in 99 2/3 innings. The 28-year-old has major league experience but hasn’t been called on by the Orioles to this point. Their rotation seems to be finally stabilizing, knock on wood, but I imagine he’s in the conversation if they need another arm.
By the numbers
0.93
Seranthony Dominguez has given up more than his share of home runs since joining the Orioles, but a 0.93 WHIP in an Orioles uniform is exactly what you’re looking for at the back end of a bullpen. His five home runs in 15 innings represent half of the 10 hits he allowed, and he’s walked just four while striking out 19. The home runs have been costly, for sure. It just seems like once the home runs balance out, there’s going to be a very good reliever at Brandon Hyde’s disposal. There kind of is already.
For further reading
😮💨 Aquisition deadlines: The Orioles recently got Zach Eflin back into the rotation (thankfully). But with Trevor Rogers in the minors and Eflin on the injured list, the team had two of their deadline acquisitions inactive for a good chunk of August. Turns out they weren’t alone. (Fangraphs)
💪 Santander breakdown: This is a nice breakdown of Anthony Santander’s power surge on MLB.com. (MLB.com)
📈 A look at September: I found this breakdown of when the Orioles can expect returns down the stretch incredibly useful. It’s hard to keep track of, honestly. But there’s a lot of good context and perspective in here. (The Baltimore Banner)
