Before things went completely sideways in the Orioles’ 2023 postseason run, the games started like so many of the rest of their games had. The Orioles were trailing Texas 3-2 in Game 1 from the sixth inning on. In each of the next three innings, they put the leadoff man on and anyone who had experienced much of that magical season crept to the edge of their seat. The comeback was on.
That the Orioles didn’t break through ran counter to how they’d won so many times on their way to last year’s 101 victories and division title. They were never out of a game, and both they and their opponents knew it.
This year’s club feels as if it’s getting back on track after salvaging a split in Cleveland to give the team a 5-3 week. It is boasting some post-deadline tailwind with a new-look roster. But that element of its game hasn’t come back yet. In fact, it’s been missing for an alarmingly long time.
The last time the Orioles won a game they were trailing after six innings was May 25, when Ryan O’Hearn, Anthony Santander and Jordan Westburg homered in the eighth inning to turn a 3-0 Chicago White Sox lead into an eventual 5-3 Orioles win. It was their sixth win when trailing after six innings this year and fifth when trailing after seven. They have played 62 times since, and they have not flipped a single game beyond the sixth inning in their favor.
If the Orioles are leading early, they almost always hold on. If they’re not, well, that feeling that a comeback is imminent hasn’t proven right in over two months.
Since that game against the White Sox, the Orioles have trailed 24 games after six innings, 26 after seven and 25 after eight. They’ve gone on to lose every one of them. That they had six such wins barely two months into the season is notable, considering they had nine wins when trailing after six all last year, though they played far more games that were tied in the late innings in 2023. There have been only a handful of those this year.
Read More
There are a few explanations for this disappointing development. One is just random baseball sequencing. As a whole, the 2024 Orioles offense is better than last year’s group, almost exclusively due to an uptick in slug. The 2023 Orioles hit .255 with a .321 on-base percentage and a .421 slugging percentage for a .742 OPS. This year’s team entered Sunday with a .255 average, a .319 on-base and a .452 slug for a .771 OPS. They could eclipse last year’s home run total of 183 this week.
That they’re doing that with a .732 OPS and a 98 wRC+ in high-leverage, late-inning plate appearances this year, compared to an .852 OPS and 130 wRC+ in the same subset last year could be a bit of noise. Among their regulars, Adley Rutschman, Santander, Westburg and O’Hearn are faring well in such situations. Ryan Mountcastle, Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser are not.
As a group, it simply might come down to batted-ball luck. The 2023 Orioles had a .382 batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations late in games, which was the best in baseball. This year’s club’s .256 BABIP in such situations ranks 23rd in the league, even as the hard-hit rates and ground ball rates are about the same, suggesting at least a similar batted-ball profile.
The uneven performance of the pitching staff probably has something to do with it. The rotation has been challenged by injury all year. Especially since Danny Coulombe’s elbow injury, there’s just not the depth in the bullpen there was last year. That means games are getting away from the Orioles in the middle innings, eliminating those opportunities for the relief corps to keep it close and the bats to regain the lead.
There’s no one correct way to win baseball games, so that the Orioles are two-plus months out from their last late comeback win fades into the background when a team is 67-46 and tied for first place with eight weeks left in the season. These wins are the kind, though, that can spark winning streaks, or keep them alive, or otherwise energize a team as the summer drags on. They can also make the difference between home-field advantage in the playoffs and traveling for most of it.
At the least, they’re fun to watch and can be a reminder of something the Orioles felt until recently they needed reinforced: They’re a good team capable of more than they showed in July. We’ll know when we see a win like this that they’re truly recapturing last year’s magical form.
