Think about it this way: As the Orioles’ executives are making and taking phone calls in the next week-plus leading up to the July 30 MLB trade deadline, there are probably more names that other teams might ask for than there are major leaguers on other clubs who could help these 60-39 Orioles for the rest of 2024.
In that context, it’s hard to keep track of all the young talent the Orioles can offer if they identify pitchers they want to bring into the fold by the deadline. There might be dozens of names, but they fit neatly, to me, in a handful of buckets.
Here they are, mostly in order of talent, to help keep track of what levels of talent the Orioles could be trading from in the coming days, should they make any moves, big or small.
Too young, too good: Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo
This trio of prospects atop the Orioles system is, quite simply, too good at too early an age to be traded for anything other than the highest-impact acquisition. And that’s because they can be so good so early in their careers that the net benefit of acquiring anyone for them would be lower because of the value going out, even if we’re heavily weighting deals toward contending in 2024.
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Here’s what I mean by that. Let’s say these young prospects end up being Jordan Westburg-level, three-plus-win players in their first full seasons in the majors and that’s the floor going forward. Trading that, even for a high-level pitcher who would be here for multiple seasons beyond this one, naturally cuts into the value that pitcher would bring while he’s under contract in Baltimore — and that’s assuming he stays healthy and it’s not factoring in the salary disparities or the fact that there would still be multiple seasons left of the prospect the Orioles trade being on the other team once said pitcher leaves in free agency.
The Orioles could decide the values add up, but given what we know about how they value their prospects, they’d have to hold whomever they trade for in very, very high esteem.
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Some real big leaguers: Colton Cowser (I guess), Heston Kjerstad, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby
Cowser is in his own category here because, although his bat is not as hot as it was in April, he is a bona fide major league outfielder and is proving increasingly valuable to the Orioles. Trading him would be a big move for the present and future. But he represents the kind of high-floor major league talent that makes trades easier for selling teams to justify in that you feel confident you’re getting a player your fans are going to be watching on television and enjoying almost immediately. Kjerstad and Stowers’ power potential from the left side and Norby’s potentially steady offensive production at second would be hard to part with. It’s hard to imagine any deal that helps the Orioles in 2024 being executed without one of these players.
High-minors/high-ceiling pitchers: Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott, Seth Johnson, Justin Armbruester, Brandon Young, Trace Bright, Luis De Leon, Michael Forret, Jackson Baumeister, Zach Fruit, Cameron Weston
These pitchers represent the Orioles’ next-best chances at bringing a high-caliber major league starter into their major league rotation, which means they’re also the arms teams are going to ask for the most. De Leon’s name came up a lot in last year’s trade talks (from other teams, with the Orioles obviously refusing). But this group has the demonstrated bat-missing ability teams covet, has advanced pitch mixes that will screen well to the data-inclined teams, and more likely than not pitched well when scouts came into town in the first half.
Trading any of them means the Orioles will just probably be in this position again in the coming years, trying to cover deficiencies in starting pitching depth in the trade market as opposed to filling those holes from within. They may not want to do that. But there’s firepower in this group, probably paired with someone in tier two, to bring an impact arm to Baltimore for the remainder of 2024 if the Orioles want to.
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Next-wave hitters: Dylan Beavers, Jud Fabian, Max Wagner, Enrique Bradfield Jr., Mac Horvath, Matthew Etzel, Frederick Bencosme
This is basically the fruits of the last few drafts on the hitting side with the team’s first-day picks (plus international signee Bencosme to make the group complete), the profiles of which we outlined last week after the first day of the 2024 draft added similar players to their minor league depth chart. All of them are great at something at the plate, be it their raw power, contact ability or plate discipline, and can probably be major leaguers based on what they do well already. The Orioles are betting they can help close whatever talent gap they have and make the upside that much higher.
Considering they just added another draft class of similar players, the Orioles may be willing to move one or more for the rentals they’re looking for. One of these players was sought for a rental starting pitcher last year in a straight-up, one-for-one deal, so who’s to say teams won’t ask again? And maybe this time the Orioles will acquiesce.
The rest of the pitchers (aka the Rule 5 eligibles): Kyle Brnovich, Trey McGough, Moisés Chace, Edgar Portes, Juan Nuñez, Carlos Tavera, Nolan Hoffman, Kade Strowd, Luis González, Keagan Gillies, Dylan Heid, Kyle Virbitsky, Daniel Lloyd, Peter Van Loon, Alex Pham, Ryan Long
This is a long list of talented pitchers, many of whom could help the team this year or next if given a chance but who could also be plucked in next year’s Rule 5 draft if they aren’t added to the 40-man roster this winter. For the high-minors players like Brnovich, McGough, Tavera, Hoffman and Strowd, that might put them in the mix to be moved a la Easton Lucas a year ago. For the younger guys such as Chace, Portes and Nuñez — all higher-ceiling, younger players, whose risk of being taken is lower because they’re farther away, but they’re all far too talented to lose for free. Any of these pitchers could be used to get a deal over the line.
The lottery tickets: Elvin Garcia, Emilio Sanchez, Stiven Martinez, Leandro Arias, Luis Almeyda, Thomas Sosa, Joshua Liranzo, Aron Estrada
Basically anyone the Orioles have signed in the last few seasons in the international market under senior scouting director Koby Perez fits this bill. Basallo is the crown jewel of any of those classes, and Bencosme moved quickly as well, but beyond them the fastest risers out of the international ranks are on the mound. All of these hitters signed for large bonuses, have performed well in the complex leagues or are putting it together some at Low-A Delmarva. There’s a long way to go for all of them but a lot of upside as well. These types of players end up rounding out deals all the time — and for the handful that teams deeply regret moving, there are plenty more who aren’t heard from again.
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