The Orioles haven’t exactly inspired confidence in the way they’ve played since the start of July, with a record of 30-33.

Still, their strong first half has set them up with a 99.7% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, despite their injuries, poor performance with runners in scoring position and bullpen blows.

Their magic number to make the playoffs is eight, meaning they could clinch as early as Tuesday. They control their own destiny — at a minimum, they only need to win eight of their last 15 games to get at least the third wild-card spot, regardless of what other teams do.

But what happens if they don’t do that? How do they fall into the 0.3% chance that they don’t make the postseason? Here are the very, very unlikely scenarios.

The Tigers currently have the seventh-best record in the American League, meaning if the season ended right now they would be the first team not to make the playoffs.

On Friday, Detroit will play their first of six games this season against the Orioles. If Detroit wins at least four of the six, they will have the tiebreaker in the event that the two teams end the season with the same record.

With 15 games to go, the Tigers are eight games behind the Orioles. To catch them, Detroit would have to, at a minimum, go 12-3 in its final 15 games — including winning at least four of the six against Baltimore — and the Orioles would need to go 4-11. They would end the season tied, with Detroit having the tiebreaker.

That scenario, though, doesn’t take into account the Red Sox and the Mariners, who are only a game behind the Tigers. For this to work, the Red Sox and Mariners, both 74-73, would need to finish with fewer than 88 wins. The Orioles and the Tigers both have the tiebreaker with the Red Sox and the Mariners, so if they all somehow finish tied and the Tigers win at least four games against the Orioles, then Detroit will get in.

To pass the Orioles, the Red Sox or Mariners, currently one game behind the Tigers, would have to finish the season 13-2 and the Orioles would have to go 3-12 so Baltimore finishes the season with one additional loss.

But, since the Tigers are ahead of the Red Sox and Mariners, this scenario only works if Boston or Seattle go 13-2, Baltimore goes 3-12 AND Detroit doesn’t win more than 11 more games. Got all that?

This all goes to show the Orioles have a 99.7% chance of making the playoffs for a reason. These situations are complicated and require a combination of the Orioles completely falling apart and the seventh- and eighth-best teams in the American League suddenly getting very, very hot.