Remember Orioles general manager Mike Elias’ quote about “liftoff”? It meant many things to many different people and will not be re-litigated here.
Imagine a world, though, where the impact of Cedric Mullins’ groin injury was mitigated by the arrival of another former first-round pick in Colton Cowser — a player who could give the Orioles an exciting replacement for the left-handed hitting center fielder they just lost, and signify that the player development machine was doing what it was meant to and helping the Orioles win games and push for the playoffs.
That would have signaled the upward trajectory here as well as anything that’s happened in these last four-plus years: top prospects up to supplement when top players go down. Instead, Cowser is on Norfolk’s injured list and the Orioles brought in Aaron Hicks, recently released by the Yankees, to help fill the massive centerfield-sized void Mullins will leave.
Players, coaches and executives alike have touted the Orioles’ status as contenders this year and stated their postseason goals pretty plainly. Now is the time for them all to show it, because the short-term solution doesn’t match the magnitude of the potentially significant problem they could be facing.
“Good teams are able to deal with some adversity and have other guys step up, and give other guys some opportunities,” manager Brandon Hyde said.
The Orioles were a good team with Mullins. There are good teams all around the game who are driven by their stars, and there are good teams who have stars and do as much as they can around the margins to supplement wherever they’re light.
Bringing in Hicks is a hefty dose of the latter, leaving the burden on the stars that remain. One day in, they showed they can handle it. Adam Frazier, replacing Mullins in the leadoff spot, had a pair of hits and scored twice. Adley Rutschman reached base three times, Anthony Santander had three extra-base hits, and Gunnar Henderson drove in three runs.
Hicks was present and in uniform, but didn’t play. Expecting that kind of impact from him would be asking a lot. He had season-ending wrist surgery in 2021, and since he returned the following year, Hicks has a .621 OPS with minimal power. A team with tremendous resources in the New York Yankees took stock of Hicks’ trajectory and decided to eat $27.6 million in committed salary to move on from him.
Rougned Odor and James McCann and now Hicks all reinforce that the Orioles like the idea of paying the minimum for an established big leaguer, and executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias said their scouting and data analysis “see stuff with Aaron Hicks that we like, that feels like a good fit for us and I think — I hope — this is a shot in the arm for him.”
Even without affecting the baseball much, it’s clear his plate discipline and low chase rate are among them. They also feel his speed is still intact. They believe he can play center field at least at the level of Austin Hays, even though Hays’ ability to play center field meant they could have opted for a left-handed hitting corner outfielder instead. Hicks is a switch-hitter, but given the Orioles’ glut of right-handed options, it’s hard to see him supplanting any of them; Elias said they want to keep Ryan McKenna in the lineup against lefties, and rightfully so.
That left-handed leaning avenue could have been filled internally, as evidenced by Tuesday’s lineup with Hays in center field and Terrin Vavra in left field. Adam Frazier’s corner outfield ability hasn’t been required much, but was touted as an added benefit of his signing. Using them in those roles without signing Hicks would have allowed for a more significant infield role for Joey Ortiz and Jordan Westburg, who frustratingly remain in Norfolk.
The Orioles though, are hoping that Hicks can have a bit of a bounce back here; that they won’t need him for long; and that his .616 OPS and an 82 wRC+ (100 is league average) since the start of last season in 386 plate appearances off right-handed pitching will improve to the point that he’s worth having around.
Elias cited the Adam Frazier and Kyle Gibson signings as ones where the Orioles’ internal evaluations were brighter than the consensus — and paid off. He’s right on both fronts. The Orioles have found value at the margins up and down their roster, which isn’t to say this is that at all.
This is a simple, low-cost gambit that’s less attractive than the alternatives but also doesn’t shake up a team that’s off to one of baseball’s best starts too much.
Signing Hicks, who they kicked the tires on before Mullins’ injury, is clearly taking the path of least resistance. That would imply there’s some kind of resistance to giving someone like Ortiz or Westburg an extended run in the lineup, even if it means the Orioles don’t have the strongest outfield defense, but that feels flimsy to me.
One day soon, the Orioles’ Triple-A prospects — both the healthy and injured ones — will contribute to this playoff push somehow, be it with their presence in Baltimore or in acquiring a starting pitcher to help the stretch run. But for whatever reason, Elias decided the loss of Mullins would not accelerate any timelines.
Until then, they turn to Hicks, who isn’t an inspiring alternative because he really isn’t meant to be. If they stay on this torrid pace and continue to play like a team destined for the playoffs in October, it will be because the stars step up to fill Mullins’ production void. That’s not just what good players do on good teams, it’s what makes the good teams great. The assignment is clear, and having Hicks play a couple times a week isn’t going to change it.
