SAN FRANCISCO — The Orioles reinforced two things with Sunday’s series-clinching victory against the San Francisco Giants.
On one hand, they became the first team to win 20 road games this season — a sign that this group of up-and-comers aren’t scared of a big moment in front of large crowds at Oracle Park. On the other hand, they showed the potential this team has when its offense and pitching staff are both firing on all cylinders.
On the whole, though, even with the third-best record in baseball (37-22), Sunday’s win was just the sixth game this season decided by five runs or more. It’s a tricky balance Baltimore has going here, although through the first third of the season, it has worked.
The Orioles are slightly over the one-third mark of the 162-game campaign, but it feels like a good time to step back and assess. They’ve played 59 games, many of them competitive and thrilling. With two-thirds of the year remaining ahead of a potential postseason berth, manager Brandon Hyde still sees room for improvement.
“We can still play better baseball, honestly,” Hyde said. “I don’t think we’re playing our best baseball yet.”
The Pythagorean winning percentage backs up that belief. The formula for it estimates a team’s winning percentage based on runs scored and runs allowed; Baltimore held a projected record of 31-27 entering Sunday. That would leave the Orioles in fourth place in the American League East rather than second.
Of course, it’s just a projection for a reason — reality matters, the games matter, and for a third of the season, those games have shown these Orioles know how to win.
So, a little past the one-third mark of the season, here are three questions The Baltimore Banner’s Orioles staff will attempt to answer.
— Andy Kostka
What has surprised you most so far?
Columnist Jon Meoli: I’m honestly surprised that the Orioles’ pitching staff has held up as well as it has. Plenty of that has to do with Yennier Cano emerging to cover up all kinds of deficiencies, but more broadly, Kyle Gibson has been better than expected in the rotation, and for the last month, there have been far more winning starts than bad ones from the entire group. The bullpen really gets credit for how April went, but the rotation fueled the next month, and it’s probably going to be on them to keep it going. Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells seem up for the task. Kyle Bradish does some days. But without really knowing who the next man up is, it’s hard to know whether they’ll be able to absorb a loss to any of them.
Sports audience engagement editor Paul Mancano: How can my answer not be Yennier Cano? It’s hard to overstate the righty’s importance to a bullpen that has been without the always-steady Dillon Tate and free agent addition Mychal Givens for much of the season’s first half. Like Félix Bautista before him, Cano has transformed himself from an afterthought into a dominant, high-leverage reliever. This Orioles coaching staff has shown a remarkable ability to turn unheralded arms into top-notch hurlers. Now, if only they could get better results from their top pitching prospects …
Orioles beat reporter Andy Kostka: Paul has the right idea. The emergence of Yennier Cano has surprised just about everyone, except for Cano himself. He arrived as support for a taxed bullpen partway through April and by the end of the weekend in Chicago, he was already holding down high-leverage situations. He then faced 24 straight batters without allowing a base runner, and 33 batters before he allowed his first hit. It’s such a difference from the 4 1/3 innings he threw in Baltimore last year after he arrived in the trade that sent closer Jorge López to the Minnesota Twins. In that stretch, he gave up nine runs. In 31 innings this year, Cano has just three runs against him. He’s become a near-lock of a setup man.
How good can this team be?
Meoli: Honestly, as good as the front office wants to make them. There are a lot of different ways to get this team over the hump, but they’ve put themselves in position to be in a great spot in the late-season playoff chase and how they supplement that will be the key. Whether it’s prospects like Colton Cowser or Jordan Westburg debuting, pitchers like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall helping the rotation, or trades to bring in legitimate playoff-caliber starting pitching, they can do a lot of things to make this team better than it is. That’s with a short-term view, though, and we really have no way to gauge how the front office will balance that with the long view they so often like to take. The players and coaches have done enough to make me feel good about saying this team can be pretty good. That’s rarely enough come October.
Mancano: It’s hard to imagine the Orioles playing much better than they have through the first two months of the season. Coming into Sunday’s game, Baltimore held the third-best record in baseball, behind only Tampa Bay and Texas, despite owning just a +25 run differential. Now they must prove it’s sustainable, which will be especially difficult without center fielder Cedric Mullins. Still, there are areas in which the team can improve, most notably in the rotation, which came into Sunday ranked 23rd in ERA. It’s difficult to remain competitive in the American League East without an ace, and this team’s success currently hinges on a group of so-so starters.
Kostka: Shortly before spring training started, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias stated the team’s goal was to make the postseason. That was a different message than the one he’s preached since arriving after the 2018 season. He has repeated that notion consistently, and late last month Elias went so far as to say Baltimore is “preparing to be buyers” at the trade deadline. This team could use a front-end ace in the rotation, and if Elias is willing to part ways with some of the prospect capital accrued over the rebuild, a pitching addition could help prod this team to a loftier goal than just making the playoffs.
What needs to happen for the Orioles to reach their full potential?
Meoli: See above, but more broadly, this team reaching its full potential as it currently stands — or being in a position to raise that ceiling and still hit it — probably has a lot more to do with what happens around them in the American League than what happens in Baltimore. I think the Orioles as presently constructed have played to their full potential this season. I think it will take one or two division foes completely falling off and a clear path to the playoffs to emerge for it to feel as good as it should. This team in a vacuum is a fun one that wins plenty of games, probably as many as can be reasonably expected. Other teams are better, and for this season to be the success it should be, it will probably take a collapse or two somewhere else.
Mancano: The Orioles are in the enviable position of having a winning big league team buttressed by a top-flight minor league system. They need to maximize the latter, either by calling up their top prospects or by flipping them for established big leaguers via trade. The club may need significant contributions from the likes of Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser before September rolls around.
Kostka: When Hyde considers the season at large so far, he’s happy. But then he begins to delve into the areas that need improvement — which just so happens to be every area. The offense, the pitching, the fielding: they can all be more consistent. Perhaps there should be optimism in the way Baltimore has won despite not playing its best baseball yet, or the way its bats can bail out its pitching staff and vice versa. To make waves in October, though, the Orioles will need deeper starts from pitchers, clean play behind them and timelier hitting than has been commonplace.
jon.meoli@thebaltimorebanner.com
