Corbin Burnes, who excelled in his first — and perhaps only — season with the Orioles, is set to become the most coveted starting pitcher available in free agency this winter.
For years, history in Baltimore showed the reluctance of the front office and ownership group to shell out massive contracts to pitchers. Under general manager Mike Elias, the Orioles have yet to sign a pitcher for more than one guaranteed season.
But Burnes’ departure from Baltimore might not be as much of a foregone conclusion as expected — the new ownership group, led by billionaire philanthropist David Rubenstein, could open possibilities for spending in its first offseason.
For the sake of this story, however, we’ll assume Burnes is headed elsewhere. The expected interest of every contending franchise in the Scott Boras client will drive Burnes’ price high. The bidding war that could erupt for the 30-year-old right-hander should give Burnes his pick of the litter, and there’s no telling whether the Orioles will be that pick.
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Burnes only solidified his place atop the free-agent market with his 2.92 ERA in 194 1/3 regular-season innings. He never missed a start, showing dependability and consistency throughout. Apart from a difficult August, during which he allowed 28 runs in five starts, Burnes dominated enough that he will likely be a finalist for the Cy Young Award for the fifth straight season.
As such, Burnes will pace the market. According to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, Burnes could be in line for a seven-year, $247 million contract. According to an industry source who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid on the state of the potential negotiations, Burnes could draw $300 million, depending on the structure and length of the deal.
So, if Burnes departs, there will be a massive hole in the Orioles’ rotation. Zach Eflin, acquired at the trade deadline and under contract for $18 million in 2025, will join right-hander Grayson Rodriguez as locks atop the staff. Right-hander Dean Kremer and left-hander Cade Povich will likely be in, as well, particularly as Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells recover from elbow surgeries.
Baltimore could do with another addition. That may come via free agency, another trade or belief in internal options to take a step forward. Here are two players the Orioles could target in each category.
Free agents
Left-hander Max Fried
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Behind Burnes, left-hander Max Fried might be the second-most highly coveted starting pitcher to hit the market. The Atlanta Braves stalwart finished his second All-Star season with a 3.25 ERA in 174 1/3 innings. Fried has dealt with his share of injuries, missing time in July this season; a forearm strain held him to 14 starts in 2023.
But Fried has a track record of success — his ERA in 2024 was his highest since he posted a 4.02 ERA in 2019. And adding Fried to Baltimore’s rotation would provide another southpaw to a right-handed-heavy mix.
Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi
There’s no guarantee right-hander Nathan Eovaldi will be available on the open market. By pitching more than 300 combined innings in 2023 and 2024 for the Texas Rangers, Eovaldi unlocked a player option worth $20 million for 2025. Or he could choose a $2 million buyout and seek a longer deal in free agency.
Should he opt out, the 34-year-old makes sense in Baltimore, given his proven postseason success. In 2023, he allowed 12 runs in 36 2/3 innings as Texas won the World Series. And he finished 2024 with a 3.80 ERA in 170 2/3 innings. Eovaldi might sign for a shorter deal than Fried, which could be attractive to Elias, given the lack of long-term contracts he’s given out during his time in Baltimore.
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Trades
Left-hander Jordan Montgomery
This season couldn’t have gone worse for Jordan Montgomery. He signed a one-year, $25 million deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks on the back of his 2023 postseason heroics and stumbled to a 6.23 ERA. After that display, Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick called the signing a mistake and said he hopes Montgomery doesn’t pick up his player option, which is worth $22.5 million for 2025.
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After the worst season of his career, though, Montgomery will likely exercise his player option, because it guarantees more money than he otherwise would receive in free agency. And then Arizona might look to trade him.
Here come the Orioles into this. Baltimore’s farm system is deep, but many of the MLB-ready players were used in trades to acquire players this year. But if the Orioles believe in their ability to bring Montgomery back to his best — and his best is quite good — they probably wouldn’t need to send any of their top prospects in a deal that amounts to a salary dump for Arizona.
Right-hander Luis Castillo
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The Seattle Mariners have one of the best rotations in the sport but have yet to make the most of it. Right-hander Luis Castillo is a major part of that dominance, and with several more years on his contract, the Mariners could look to shed salary in pursuit of balancing their roster elsewhere.

Castillo, who’s signed through 2027 with a vesting option for 2028, will make slightly more than $24 million next season. That’s about the going rate for a quality starter. He’s coming off a season in which he held a 3.64 ERA in 175 1/3 innings, and only once since 2017 has his ERA driven north of 4.00. Castillo offers the stability and years of control Baltimore could use.
Internal options
Left-hander Trevor Rogers
The Orioles didn’t use as much trade capital as they did to acquire left-hander Trevor Rogers at the deadline not to give him a chance. Baltimore sent outfielder Kyle Stowers and infielder Connor Norby to the Miami Marlins for Rogers, a 26-year-old who hasn’t found anywhere near the same success as early in his career.
He was an All-Star in 2021 with a 2.64 ERA. In four starts for the Orioles after the trade, Rogers allowed 16 runs in 19 innings. He was optioned and finished the year in Triple-A, where he struggled at times as well. If the Orioles opt to hold out until Bradish or Wells returns late in the season, Rogers is a candidate.
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Right-hander Chayce McDermott
With Povich breaking through to the majors, right-hander Chayce McDermott is the Orioles’ top pitching prospect now. He made his debut this year, pitching four innings against the Marlins, before returning to the minors. His stats for the Norfolk Tides were good, led by a 3.78 ERA in 100 innings and an average of 13 strikeouts per nine innings.
McDermott should have every opportunity in spring training to show he can be a breakthrough candidate in 2025.
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