With each passing day, it becomes easier to jump off the boat — not bother to watch, let alone buy tickets to, games — when it comes to the Orioles as opposed to going down with it.
General manager Mike Elias delivered what I suppose was a heartening message to those who have faith in some kind of turnaround with updates that Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle and Ramón Urías should be back by the end of the season, giving at least the semblance of hope that the Orioles will be somewhat whole when the records are wiped clean and the playoffs begin.
For those who have already swum to shore and are wondering what’s going to happen going forward, he left plenty of breadcrumbs in his comments as well.
Elias called this a slump that the offense is in and referred twice to things outside the team’s control — in context, that could have only meant injuries. He made it clear they’re a significant factor the front office is taking into consideration as things trend in the wrong direction. He also pointed out that the Orioles were left without the hitting depth they needed and, in defending the team’s infrastructure on that side of the game, seemed disinclined for major changes — which, depending on how the next few weeks go, could be a challenging line to hold.
“This is an organization that, up until the most recent version of this, other executives [were] voting us as one of the top development organizations in the game, that was producing one of the better offenses in the game and won 100 games last year with this group of players,” Elias said. “So we’re aware of the fact that we’re in a slump as a team right now, as an organization, all of us, and we’re working on that, but we don’t want to lose sight of where we are and how we got here.”
In his telling, this Orioles organization as a whole is experiencing what so many of its highly touted young players have — and in some cases are — at the major league level.
“The competition is adjusting specifically to you, and we all need to self-modify and evolve to stay competitive in the major leagues, but that’s different than losing confidence in personnel or a group of people,” Elias said. “I have extreme confidence in this group and these personnel.”
That he keeps the flame alive that this team can figure it out in the next few weeks and get hot in October isn’t exactly groundbreaking. I have noted that I feel dumb saying the same thing, though I have far less incentive to than Elias.
But he gets to make decisions about what happens when that possibility officially burns out. If (and when) it does, it will be an incredibly disappointing and at the same time understandable end to this season.
Expectations were sky-high thanks to last year’s 101-win team and the addition of Corbin Burnes, yet this team is a husk of the one that started the 2024 season — one that didn’t crack 90 wins in many projection systems and was viewed as a wild-card team.
That will likely be the outcome, but considering how well the team started, that would land as a letdown. Not advancing deeper into the playoffs than last year would, too, and the questions would be down to Elias as to what needs to change.
Self-modifying and evolving aren’t exactly the words of someone contemplating meaningful change, and it’s impossible to imagine Elias would telegraph it if he were. Brandon Hyde was his choice as the Orioles’ manager and is the rare rebuild skipper to make it through to the other side; the coaches are tightly woven into the organization’s developmental and philosophical fabric.
Remember that last year, when Chris Holt was shifted from his role as major league pitching coach, a longtime friend and colleague of Holt’s from his Houston days in Drew French was his replacement. The Orioles sought a different voice to deliver a similar message within a similar structure and added Mitch Plassmeyer from their minor league pitching side to the major league staff to ensure further continuity of thought and philosophy.
Similarly, it’s hard to separate the hitting coaches — Ryan Fuller, Matt Borgschulte, and Cody Asche — from the Orioles’ overall hitting philosophy, which was built on the ideals of the front office itself. Adley Rutschman really, really matters, but he’s really the only core Oriole who has experienced any extended period of underperformance at the plate this year. Most of the rest are just hurt.
That’s really the issue with the here-and-now Orioles. Elias admitted that the trade deadline was geared toward adding starting pitching as the staff was cracking in July and that felt like an immediate need. Zach Eflin was a great pickup. The Trevor Rogers trade, which sent Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to the Marlins, left the team’s hitting depth thin as injuries hit.
“We’ve been paying for it,” Elias said.
Time will tell if a bill will come due for anyone else if the Orioles’ season sputters out in the next few weeks. Those decisions will come in the context of a momentous offseason for the Orioles, given that it’s the first under new owner David Rubenstein and in the new financial stratosphere his group can push the team to.
What level of self-modifying or evolving will be sufficient to the uber-successful men whom Elias now answers to? This project, which began under the supervision of an absentee owner and honestly benefited from it, has never had to stray far from its core pillars. Every transaction, trade and comment made in this new world is thus full of meaning as I try to figure out if that’s still going to be the case.
Elias certainly laid the groundwork for tweaks instead of overhauls this winter as he sat in the dugout Tuesday. He also projected the beginning of a turnaround that never came. We know how quickly these things can change.
