As the first real concerns about the Orioles’ offense started popping up in late August, Gunnar Henderson was a part of that. He homered four times in the five games ending Aug. 18, then went quiet — no home runs and just one extra-base hit in his next 12 games. For the first time since mid-May, his OPS dipped below .900.
The offense as a whole remains inconsistent, and it’s reaching the level that it’s concerningly so. They’re missing some key pieces, and as a result talented role players are being miscast as something more while a few cornerstones are being asked to carry larger loads.
Henderson, though, has stepped up in a big way in September — and even with that lull in late August has still been well above average throughout the second half. He’s hit three home runs with a 1.096 OPS, and with an .801 OPS and eight home runs since the All-Star break, he still checks in with a wRC+ of 131 — 31 points above league average.
No one needs to be told at this point how challenging it is to produce at elite levels throughout the season; the Orioles roster is littered with evidence of that. Some of the team’s hottest hitters to start the season have been average or worse in the second half, while those who started slowest are among their better hitters now. There have been light stretches, but Henderson has been largely steady this year.
And as we ask for more from so many of the Orioles this year, at least at the plate, it’s hard to ask for much more from Henderson.
If it feels as if that’s not true, that’s probably only because of the standard he set early. He ended April with a .980 OPS, had a brief quiet patch in the second week of May, then rebounded to homer in four straight games from May 17-20. He didn’t reach base on May 21, then did in each of his next 36 starts. During that stretch, he had a 1.072 OPS with 10 home runs, then things cooled from there. He had a .686 OPS in 12 games entering the All-Star break, then didn’t hit his first home run after the All-Star break for 16 games, a spell when he still managed a .791 OPS.
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Overall, he had a .751 OPS in July and a .709 OPS in August. By wRC+, that was still 10% better than league average; even when Henderson isn’t at his best, he’s still better than most. And that’s how you end up where he is now, pushing his OPS back above .900 (to .903 entering Friday’s game) and, even if he hasn’t kept pace with Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. in the AL MVP race, Henderson’s main responsibility is to the Orioles.
They need their best players to be at their best as often as they can. Understanding that’s not always possible, Henderson has done the next-best thing and at least kept the valleys relatively high when his production has fallen. FanGraphs charts players’ wRC+ over 15-game rolling windows, and there were just 11 games when Henderson’s trailing 15-game wRC+ was below league average: once on May 15, four games from July 27-31, five games from Aug. 30-Sept. 3, and again for one game on Sept. 7. Judge has had 10 such games, as has Witt.
Two months being only above average as opposed to elite makes a difference at the end of the season, but to consistently apply the Orioles’ prescribed hitting approach — to make good swing decisions and hit the ball hard in the air — is going to lead to consistently strong results. Henderson has demonstrated that.
It’s clear that, particularly of late, that’s been hard to do for some in the Orioles lineup. Part of that is because they’re literally not available, with regulars Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle on the injured list, leaving an added burden on others. That’s come as veterans Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander have enjoyed some of their most productive form, but others, including Adley Rutschman and Ryan O’Hearn, have looked like they’ve been pressing to cover for those who are lost. (Colton Cowser, the team’s other remaining regular, has hovered around league average since the middle of August).
Rutschman, at least, has come alive a bit with four hits in three games in Boston after he was moved down in the lineup. There’s no lack of consensus around how much the Orioles need him to regain his best form to help them down the stretch. And, after these last couple of weeks, there’s no need to say that about Henderson.
In so many measures, he’s been outstanding all year. He’s doing it again now, when the Orioles need it most.
