Zach Eflin is a lot of things to the Orioles: their top veteran starter, an example of how to swing a good trade, and maybe even the guy who’s going to take the ball on opening day.
A couple of years ago, though, he was a bit too risky.
And his presence on the Orioles’ roster at a moment when the potential for real spending means there’s a chance he’s supplanted atop the rotation by the new year, signals to me the makings of a shift in philosophy and approach that might be a sign of the changing sands at the highest levels of the Orioles.
You’ll recall that the winter after the 2022 season was the liftoff one, when the team was meant to push on from its first winning season in the Mike Elias era and start contending. That ultimately happened but not because of any big splashes in the winter.
Eflin was one of the first big pieces to move that winter, signing a three-year, $40 million free agent deal with the Rays. That the Rays — a smart team that doesn’t spend frivolously — were aggressive and signed him early suggested it was a good move, and to me it felt like a baseline had been set for the Orioles’ offseason. If the Rays could spend that on pitching, so could the Orioles.
It didn’t work out that way. The Orioles’ rotation additions that winter were Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10 million deal and Cole Irvin via trade. They were intrigued by Eflin for all the reasons that a fellow smart team like the Rays were, but Eflin’s impressive stretch and playoff run with the Phillies in 2022 were preceded by three months on the injured list with a chronic knee issue.
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For a team that was, in the John Angelos era, not operating on a robust budget, the idea of committing dollars and years to a player with any kind of injury risk didn’t make sense, even when there was a lot of upside attached.
Instead, Gibson signed into the proverbial Toyota Camry role that Jordan Lyles had occupied the previous season: unremarkable and durable. The Orioles were spending more on these pitchers than anyone else on their roster, and they needed to know what they were getting.
Even trading last year for Corbin Burnes, definitely not a Camry, was the addition of a known quantity. He never missed time for an injury (though he went on the injured list in 2021 without a reason specified as the Brewers’ brass said they were following MLB’s health and safety protocols), and had made 33 and 32 starts the two seasons prior to coming to Baltimore.
A Cy Young winner who takes the ball every five days is the kind of player even the most conservative team would push their chips in on for one year, and the Orioles at least did that, acknowledging it was a considerable pile of chips.
I’ve received pushback in the past for referring to the Orioles as risk-averse. To them, it was just being practical and operating in the most efficient and logical way, given the circumstances. Now, those circumstances have changed.
Elias said last week the Orioles were looking over the entire menu of starting pitching options, with reports connecting them to a reunion with Burnes and to former Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Lefty Max Fried is also a potential target.
Snell has pitched 180 innings twice in his nine-year career, and he won the Cy Young Award both years. He was quite good in 2024 while making just 20 starts (104 innings), and he is in the 120- to 130-inning range most other seasons. Fried’s only medical blemish is a left forearm strain in 2023, but he’s made at least 28 starts in the last four full MLB seasons otherwise.
The Orioles aren’t going to be frivolous in signing a deal that would top Ubaldo Jiménez’s four-year, $50 million contract as the club’s largest to a free agent pitcher — and anything to upgrade the current group would probably require that. But it seems as if the threshold for being worth that money may be lower given the resources available under the ownership group led by David Rubenstein and Michael Arougheti.
That opens a lot of possibilities for Elias and his group to improve the rotation. Maybe, as the reports suggest, they are willing to pay for 130 really good innings of Snell a year, with the potential for more if everything goes well. Perhaps someone coming off an injury like Shane Bieber could be enticed by a deal that allows him to rehab and get right, pitch in the second half and make a nice salary in 2026.
There’s also the chance they could pursue another durable innings-eater type while separately going for the high-upside type. And, if the idea of the Orioles signing two free agent pitchers puts you on the floor, know that for at least one offseason, until proven otherwise, we can think such things are possible.
After all, a couple of years ago, Eflin was considered too risky. He’s pitched 343 innings on that contract he signed with the Rays and is holding up well. The risk calculus changes when you’re only on the hook for part of the contract and have him for two playoff runs, but so too have the Orioles’ circumstances.
We know they’re looking at areas of the menu they haven’t before. Anyone can look. The next month or two will determine what they have the stomach for.
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