It’s really hard to do what the Orioles, time and again, are betting on themselves to do with the hitters they select at the top of the draft.

Maybe that’s why they keep doing the same things, and adding similar profiles to the same handful of buckets they’ve been stocking in the last few drafts. If even one or two of them reach their ceilings, the whole concept will prove worthwhile in the form of impactful major league talent.

They see the best in players and the player development staff, seemingly in equal doses, so the tantalizing sluggers who don’t make enough contact can be taught how to cut down on their whiffs and chases, and the contact merchants who put the bat on the ball and control the strike zone can develop some power to go along with it.

Vance Honeycutt, the No. 22 overall pick Sunday, joins the likes of Jud Fabian and Mac Horvath in the former group. Griff O’Ferrall, the shortstop taken 10 spots later, goes into the latter bucket with Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Dylan Beavers.

Vice president of player development and domestic scouting Matt Blood has said throughout this process — his first helming the draft after four years on the development side — that the team is trying to make the best bets possible with these picks.

They’re betting on true carrying tools with each selection. But their drafts are increasingly also bets on the player development apparatus that has brought along All-Stars like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Jordan Westburg, plus other major league contributors in a few short years, and its ability to do the same with a new generation of players.

Now that they’re a winning team, the Orioles are making their picks with the understanding that these draft classes, by virtue of not having a top-of-the-first-round pick, have different levels of talent available. Having taken Henderson, Westburg, and Connor Norby in either the competitive balance round or the second round, the front office has demonstrated an ability to hit further down the board.

They deserve credit for betting on the talent the way they do. In a way, it protects the downside with such picks. Like Fabian before him, Honeycutt boasts advanced power and hard-contact ability to go with the skills to play a true, standout center field and steal some bases. Even if he can’t improve his whiffs and swing decisions, those types of guys typically make it to the majors, and if the Orioles’ developmental emphasis on only swinging at pitches you can drive in the air takes hold, the upside is immense.

Similarly, they acknowledge the value in O’Ferrall’s bat-to-ball skills and low chase rates, which provides an offensive floor as they seek to enhance his ability to drive the ball, as well as his ability to make plays at shortstop. Like Bradfield in center field from last year’s draft, there are undeniable traits that can carry him to the majors, and now he’s in a system that is adept at helping to add the coveted power element to that.

Bradfield, you’ll remember, boasted elite speed, defense, and contact ability, with little power to speak of. The Orioles took him 16th overall, and someone with another team referred to the pick as a “heat check” for an organization that, since Mike Elias was hired in late 2018, has constantly demonstrated its ability to get the most out of the hitters they’ve drafted.

Because of the lengthy, standard developmental timeline in professional baseball, all of those examples are concentrated in Elias’ first few drafts with Rutschman, Henderson, Kyle Stowers, Joey Ortiz, Heston Kjerstad, Westburg, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser, and Connor Norby.

Jackson Holliday, the No. 1 pick in 2022, arrived in the majors far ahead of schedule this year, but that draft and the subsequent ones feature far fewer sure things than those first few did. All that really means is development is occurring at a relatively normal pace. Beavers and Fabian, the two picks after Holliday in 2022, are both at Double-A Bowie. They have done well chipping away at their developmental goals over the last two years, though their results are flagging a bit for the Baysox in the last month. Similarly, Bradfield and Horvath are progressing well at High-A Aberdeen, and are likely to end their first full seasons in Bowie.

There’s nothing in any of these players’ performances that suggests the Orioles’ view on how they can help them improve is invalid. And there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to help Honeycutt improve his contact ability, or O’Ferrall to add some pop, or 61st overall pick Ethan Anderson gain the experience and skills behind the plate to give him a valuable place for his advanced switch-hitting offensive profile to shine.

You only need to look at the fact the Orioles are giving themselves this many rolls of the dice with these respective profiles to know it’s not an easy thing to hit on. All it takes is one or two such players to truly pop for there to be even more high-end, impact talent to add to the roster in Baltimore.

I’ve stood in the tunnels and seen how they try to impart such changes on their young hitters. I’ve seen the drills and the challenges and the progress for so many of them, and I’ve seen hitters of each of these polar profiles make significant improvements to develop into complete hitters.

I don’t blame the Orioles for betting on themselves. I would, too. It just feels fair to acknowledge that these bets are not easy ones by any stretch.