It is difficult to remember, but once upon a time — back in the halcyon days of February and March — the Orioles’ pitching staff was poised to be a juggernaut.
The rotation almost didn’t feel fair. Kyle Bradish coming off a career season. Grayson Rodriguez finally throwing gas in the majors. A young group of scrappy hurlers, including Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells, as well as a healthier John Means.
Adding Corbin Burnes to the mix? The Orioles would have one of the best rotations in the majors. And, for a short while, that was how it worked out.
Now it feels as though the Orioles are attempting to scale a mountain just to get to the end of the season — missing goggles, gloves and a hiking boot as they crawl upward, inch by painful inch.
The latest announcement that Zach Eflin — one of the team’s key acquisitions at the trade deadline, who has been nothing but steady in orange — is hitting the IL with shoulder inflammation feels like the Baseball Gods grinding Baltimore under their heels.
There is no quicker way to reevaluate the last few months of up-and-down, often dissatisfying Orioles baseball than considering how much the pitching staff has changed from its projection. Although it is difficult to quantify exactly what could have been, the seven pitchers currently on the IL had a 3.32 collective ERA this year (the Orioles have a 4.71 ERA since the All-Star break).
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You could convincingly argue the guys they are missing — Bradish, Rodriguez, Means, Wells, Eflin, Jacob Webb and Danny Coulombe — would be a better staff than the pitchers who are healthy.
As good as this front office has been at aligning depth, there is no plan that insulates you from seven pitchers on the IL at the same time. While I identified points of concern in April about the health of Baltimore’s pitching staff, the deluge at this point is punishing to an almost comedic level. I’ve consistently advocated for the front office to make aggressive moves to improve the team, but the injury treadmill almost renders every effort moot (this is all before noting the Orioles have been without All-Star Jordan Westburg due to a fractured hand).
Given these grim circumstances, it is almost shocking that the Orioles are in such a good position, jockeying with the Yankees for first place in the division and (as of Wednesday morning) sporting one of the five best records in baseball. They’re almost assured a spot in the postseason, with a 96.7% chance according to Baseball Reference. It’s reassuring that their lineup, which has struggled over the last two months or so, is showing signs of returning to early-season form with Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson rediscovering some power lately.
But, if the Orioles don’t improve on last year’s 0-3 playoff showing, what could have been will be a bitterly intoxicating dream. If Bradish or Means were in this rotation, if Félix Bautista could have been closing games all year, would the Orioles be running away with the AL again?
On June 12, they were 45-22 — on track to exceed their 101-win total from last season. Three days later, Bradish was on the IL and on track for Tommy John surgery; honestly, the whole season hasn’t been the same since.
Not to minimize the efforts of Albert Suárez or early-season Cole Irvin, but the year wasn’t supposed to hinge on their arms.
Rodriguez, Eflin, Coulombe and Webb could all make it back in time for the postseason — frankly, the Orioles may not get far if they don’t. But, given the bad breaks so far, it’s hard to imagine all of them back by October. Meanwhile, the O’s have to worry about the healthy pitchers fatiguing. Burnes is coming off one of the worst starts of his career, and the closer situation is unnerving to say the least.
It’s difficult to describe the Orioles’ dire situation without sounding fatalistic. The season is not over, and we’ve seen this team has more upside than it is showing now. Given that no one is dominating this MLB season — no team is on pace to win 100 games, which hasn’t happened since 2014 — a World Series is still possible for this battered ballclub.
But, given all that’s befallen the Orioles, it’s impossible not to think back, envisioning the formidable pitching staff they assembled last offseason, trundled with all the hope this baseball town could muster. Foul luck has made it a struggle simply to reach the finish line.
