When you write for broad consumption, be it at a newspaper, a newsletter, a digital news service or, in my case, a newsletter again, consistency is vital. My gag reflex won’t allow me to brag about what I feel I’m being consistent with (insight? Laughs? Both at the same time?).
Hopefully, you’re just nodding.
And I say that because as I was digesting news of yet another Orioles player going on the injured list—this time Ryan Mountcastle — I immediately wanted to dismiss some data analysis I came across recently because it just didn’t feel right.
But I know how that’s not how it works. You can’t ignore data that disagrees with your priors.
The study I’m referring to was about the impact of the 15 different Orioles who have been on the injured list for a combined 20 stints and, according to Baseball Prospectus, 764 games and counting. That feels like a lot because it is. And yet, the impact of those lost games feels far more significant than what both BP and FanGraphs have quantified it as.
A couple weeks ago, FanGraphs ran an analysis of potential wins above replacement, per their ZiPS platform, for games lost. Nineteen teams had lost more potential WAR than the Orioles’ 4.70 in that Aug. 14 analysis, and that number has presumably climbed in the weeks since, but so has the number of all the other teams with long-term injuries.
Similarly, at BP, their injured list ledger (subscription required) has the Orioles missing 4.54 WARP, based on their preseason projections, though some of their projections were made acknowledging that players would miss time, so that could dampen the impact of not having said players on a longer-term basis.
To contextualize a bit, Gunnar Henderson has been worth 4.7 WARP, per BP. There’s no easy equivalent in FanGraphs’ WAR, given Henderson has been worth 6.7 fWAR, but you can roughly approximate the impact of the players lost by that forecast by subtracting the combined impact of Colton Cowser (3.3 fWAR) and Cedric Mullins (1.3 fWAR).
Perhaps because of the sheer volume of injuries at this point, and the concentration of them in the starting rotation — where Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells are out for the season and Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin are hopefully just out for now — that feels like it’s somehow still underselling the impact of injuries on this Orioles season.
Then again, maybe that’s ignoring the reality of where they are. Despite missing all those pitchers, they’ve had plenty of able deputies at one point or another this season to keep them afloat. They’ve had a top-five offense in baseball all year, and have utilized their position-player depth well, with the likes of Ramón Urías stepping up as Jorge Mateo and Jordan Westburg went down.
Perhaps the surprisingly light quantifications of how the Orioles have been impacted by injuries makes them being where they are — 76-56, with a 99.1% chance of making the playoffs according to FanGraphs, and a roughly 1-in-4 chance to repeat as division champs — feel more reasonable. It makes sense that this is where they are. They entered the season with a ton of depth and have had to use it.
And now, with 30 games left, it’s all in front of them. Their remaining opponents have a .495 winning percentage, and that will go down once they leave Los Angeles after this three-game set with the Dodgers, who own the best record in baseball. They then have six games against the Rockies and White Sox — absolute basement dwellers — and then play the Tigers twice and the Rays, Red Sox and Giants for one series apiece, with each of those teams hovering around .500. All that leads up to a three-game set in New York from Sept. 24-26. They need to capitalize on the chance to enter that series in a month’s time in position to take the division that week.
Getting some injured players back will help that. So, too, will not losing anyone else.
Ballpark chatter
“Of course, we’d want to see more walks. Other teams would probably like to see us hit less homers, too. That’s just the way it goes.”
— Offensive strategy coach Cody Asche
This newsletter began back in May by noting that the Orioles’ high-flying offense in the first six weeks of the season was working despite not drawing many walks, and the Orioles have walked more as a group since but aren’t slugging as much.
More specifically, their sluggers (outside Anthony Santander and more recently Gunnar Henderson) aren’t slugging, and it’s affecting the lineup’s overall production. It’s been fascinating to see how the team has sought to balance those things out at the major league level over the last few years and also try to create hitters who don’t have to choose between power and patience for a future version of their lineup. It’s clearly a work in progress, and it should be noted that the players are the ones who ultimately make these final decisions. If someone has been selling out for power, they’re likely doing so on their own accord.
📫 Have a question? Write to me here.
🚀 Talent pipeline
A handful of 2024 draftees are off to strong starts at Low-A Delmarva, which is to be expected given their college pedigrees at that level. Catchers Ethan Anderson (second round) and Ryan Stafford (fifth round) enter the week with a .939 and .931 OPS, respectively, while outfielder Austin Overn (third round) is at .892 and 32nd overall pick Griff O’Ferrall is at .736. Top pick Vance Honeycutt joined them late last week, but it wouldn’t be surprising if the whole group had one more week in Delmarva before moving up to High-A Aberdeen to see what next season will be like.
By the numbers
88.1
I went digging through the Statcast data from Norfolk on Sunday to see if there was anything noteworthy in terms of potential tweaks with Trevor Rogers as he allowed 10 runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings in his first outing since his demotion. There appeared to be some difference in how his change-up moved that could prove beneficial long-term, but Rogers’ sinker averaged 88.1 mph and his four-seam fastball averaged 88.8 mph — down over 3 mph from his season averages. Triple-A is quite a step down in atmosphere for someone who has been in the majors for so long. But whatever the reason was, he’ll need to get his velocity back to work on what’s required to get back to Baltimore.
📖 What I’m reading
🛠️ Roster construction: As the discourse about this Orioles offense and its consistency goes on, this very ‘90s-kid breakdown on FanGraphs of how teams with consistent hitters versus more boom-or-bust ones fare in the postseason feels particularly relevant. (FanGraphs)
📣 Bringing the hype: I love that Westburg is using this time on the IL to be a hype man. I think he’s got it in him. He’s much more than the no-frills guy he’s made out to be, but that said, he is pretty no-frills. And here’s a free idea: In contrast to the Cowser Milkman T-shirt giveaway, the Orioles should do a plain giveaway shirt that just says “Jordan Westburg” in block letters. It would be an instant hit and the kind of shirt you see around town 10 years from now. (The Baltimore Banner)
🤡 Chill out, gamblers: I never know what to tell people who win or lose sports bets other than, “That’s awesome,” or “Oh no, what a bummer,” so I’m not sure what anyone expects when they tell the athletes they’re betting on about their successes and failures. Kyle’s column at least sets up what gamblers are likely to hear if they share their thoughts. (The Baltimore Banner)
