Like a lot of people, my mind is on my air conditioner right now.

It’s incredibly hot out and has been for weeks. We have a newborn and are mostly confined to our South Baltimore rowhome. The difference between comfort and happiness and absolute misery rides on an air conditioning unit that quite possibly would be of legal drinking age if it were a person. It uses a coolant that’s no longer manufactured, and was already repaired once in the spring.

Every time my house feels a little warm, or the unit is running the fan as opposed to blasting cold air through the vents, a small part of me wonders if this is the end. It has been working hard, pretty much nonstop all summer, but hasn’t broken yet. It still may. I’m not the kind of person who is going to replace it on the fear that it may soon break beyond repair, and it’s not the best way to live to spend my time wondering when it will.

That’s kind of where I remain with the Orioles’ pitching staff, too, though that’s been challenged over this last month. And while I can just swallow hard and figure out a way to get a new air conditioning unit if ours croaks in August or September, Mike Elias only has two weeks until the July 30 trade deadline. He has to decide whether he wants to lay out the player capital required to do something big to keep these Orioles on track to play deep into October, or let it ride, because for most of the year, this has been working.

It remains true that before Kyle Bradish’s elbow injury put him on the season-long shelf alongside John Means and Tyler Wells, the pitchers who remained in the rotation — Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Dean Kremer, Albert Suárez and Cole Irvin — still ranked among the league’s best rotations even without their injured peers’ success factored in. There was some regression looming, as I noted here, but not the level we’ve seen since.

In the month since I wrote that, the Orioles’ rotation hasn’t been nearly as good. Since June 17, the rotation (comprising those same holdovers plus rookie Cade Povich) has a 5.60 ERA, a 5.44 FIP, and a 4.54 xFIP. We’re talking about two-plus months among the best rotations in baseball, and one month as one of the statistical worst. For the season, those six starters have a 3.67 ERA, a 4.05 FIP and a 4.05 xFIP, which rank ninth, 15th and 18th, respectively, in the majors.

No one is planning a parade based on that, especially not when the offense isn’t at its best and the bullpen remains short on consistent bat-missers. I personally think the bats aren’t a major issue, even after this week, and believe the cost of adding the kind of high-end bullpen help the Orioles might require is so high that they’ll continue to rely on their pro scouting department to sift through the mud for some low-cost solutions, the likes of which are now popping up at Camden Yards with increasing frequency.

The rotation is tricky, though. Based on recent evidence, improvements are in order. It seems like the Orioles could use more of a floor-raiser than a ceiling-raiser, because how much higher can the ceiling of the rotation led by Burnes and Rodriguez get? Those two have eight of the team’s 10 quality starts since Bradish last pitched. It’s the noncompetitive starts from others that can do the team in.

The price for a veteran floor-raiser might be a reasonable one, and considering the Orioles were willing to pay that kind of price for Jack Flaherty last year, that feels like a route they could go down again for a similar caliber starter.

They can afford, in prospect capital, to do much more, and acquire any starter that’s available, rental or otherwise. That would be the equivalent of just getting the new air conditioner now and not having to worry about it, other than lamenting the cost.

Shopping in the rental starter market is more akin to replacing the motor on the unit and hoping it gets you to October, when hopefully everything goes well and you have an entire winter with a whole new resource base to figure out what to do next summer.

Meoli’s Mailbag

When Mike Elias was in Houston, the Astros spent the No. 1 overall picks in 2013-2014 on pitchers, Mark Appel and Brady Aiken, neither of whom panned out. I’ve always wondered whether that experience persuaded Elias to focus primarily on drafting position players, then later pursuing pitchers via trades.

— Martin K., Dunedin, Florida

Martin’s email came in response to this column on the Orioles’ first-day draft picks — all hitters, all with incredible upside if the Orioles’ player development department is as strong as they think it is. Cue the Taylor Swift memes: I can fix him, no really I can.

But Martin’s question is valid. Ahead of Elias’ first draft, we talked about all of Houston’s first-round picks, and he referred to the pitching busts as “just horrible luck.”

What the Appel and Aiken picks illustrate, though, is the risk in using significant draft capital on pitchers, given the injury risk and uncertain developmental tracks that come with mound talent. Conversely, position players — specifically college ones — are a bit more knowable, and it’s unlikely that with good data and scouting there are going to be many surprises with highly-rated hitters in the draft. As such, they’re taken quickly, so the Orioles participate in taking the best available at their pick and then rely on their confidence in identifying and developing later picks to fill out the pitching side. The results are promising so far, and the process of bringing such pitchers along is sound. That said, no pitcher the Orioles drafted under Elias has thrown a major league pitch yet, so that remains a work in progress.

The Talent Pipeline

Justin Armbruester got off to a disastrous start at Triple-A Norfolk, with a 10.40 ERA, a 1.88 WHIP, and a 1.019 OPS against in his first 12 starts of the season. Since then, the 25-year-old right-hander has righted the ship. He struck out a season-high 10 batters in six shutout innings Thursday in Memphis, Tennessee, with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and 33 strikeouts over 31 innings in his last six starts. It takes a while to bring an ERA down from 10, but he’s on his way — and he’s been showing what makes him an intriguing candidate to potentially be the first pitcher drafted by Elias’ front office to reach the majors with the Orioles.

By the numbers

.118

The Orioles’ struggles with runners in scoring position this week were stark, and almost meant they ended the first half with a winless six-game homestand as a result. When Colton Cowser’s line drive early in Sunday’s game was snagged at second base to end another threat, it felt like it was just bad luck. Turns out, on the whole, it wasn’t. Their expected batting average in that span was just .118, so it wasn’t as if the quality of contact in those situations was great. That’s an execution issue, as is the one walk. That needs to be corrected.

For further reading

🌟 Hey now, you’re an All-Star: Anthony Santander being an All-Star is a great thing. He’s established a consistent high level of performance by staying on the field the last few years, and Danielle Allentuck’s story on how was a good one. (The Baltimore Banner)

📊 Data is cool now: Michael Baumann had a cool story at FanGraphs about how plugged-in college pitchers are on the data-driven aspects of pitching that was once the realm of just nerds. This is everywhere in the college ranks now, not just the top of the draft. The Orioles have a deep pond to fish in when looking for these types on the amateur side now. (FanGraphs)