Finally, after a five-day layoff, the Orioles are set to return to action in the American League Division Series against the Rangers on Saturday.
This break, though, has given everyone plenty of time to think. How will the Orioles match up against Texas? What are their weaknesses? And, perhaps most pressing, how is this thing going to play out?
Our team of experts sorts it out.
What did you learn about Texas from the wild-card series?
Orioles reporter Danielle Allentuck: The Orioles should be worried. The Rangers’ pitching staff — without Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom — shined. Their lineup, to no surprise, produced at a high rate. And the bullpen, often described as their weakness, didn’t blow any games. I think the Orioles’ best bet is to try to wear down the Rangers’ starters as quickly as possible, forcing them to throw out their relievers earlier than they want.
Orioles reporter Andy Kostka: The Rangers’ lineup has been formidable all year, so it wasn’t a shock to see Corey Seager and others produce at a high level in two games against Tampa Bay. What impressed more was how left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Nathan Eovaldi carved their way through the Rays. The pitching staff is full of questions in Texas, and it remains to be seen whether right-hander Max Scherzer will be available this postseason, but the first two starts of the Rangers’ October run were stout. And the bullpen behind them — an area of even shakier history for Texas — allowed one run over those two games.
Sports Audience Engagement Editor Paul Mancano: Last year’s Phillies proved you can go far in October if you have two big-game pitchers, and Montgomery and Eovaldi appear up for the task. But what surprised me the most was the play of rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter, who combined for six hits and four RBIs in two games. We knew about the Rangers’ top-end talent, but the play of their youngsters is adding significant depth to their lineup.
Orioles columnist Jon Meoli: My takeaway from that series is less about Texas than about how little surviving the crucible of the AL East meant. Texas smoked the Rays, and Toronto got swept out of Minnesota. You’d have hoped that playing in the AL East would be some kind of advantage, given its quality, but the Rangers were playing meaningful games against playoff-caliber teams down the stretch as well, and the team-specific takeaway is that they’re hot at the moment. They solved the Rays’ pitching staff in a way the Orioles struggle to at times, and I’m not sure the Orioles want to get into any slugfests in the coming week.
Who do you see as the X factor for the Orioles?
Allentuck: DL Hall spent half of this season in Florida, de-loading and building strength back up. He returned to the major leagues in late August and has been key to a bullpen surviving without closer Félix Bautista. As with most on this young team, the playoffs are a new animal for Hall. But he has the high-powered stuff to thrive in late innings and to strike guys out. They will need a reliable Hall, especially if this series goes long.
Kostka: The Orioles will need right-hander Tyler Wells in a big way this series. Postseason baseball tends to lead to shortened starts due to the high-pressure situations from the first pitch, and Wells is capable of filling multiple roles in Baltimore’s bullpen.
The starter-turned-reliever for this October experience could cover multiple innings or serve as a makeshift closer. He’s done both. Early in the year, when Kyle Bradish left his start with an injury against the Rangers, Wells entered in relief and threw five perfect innings. He earned the save last week that clinched Baltimore’s American League East championship. Wells can do it all, and the Orioles need a versatile reliever in this series.
Mancano: Game 1 on Saturday will be the first postseason game for most of these Orioles, but it will also be Brandon Hyde’s first as manager. Hyde was the first base coach in Chicago when the Cubs won the World Series in 2016, but he’ll be pulling the levers this time. Will he tinker with the starting lineup as often as he did during the regular season? And how aggressive will he be in using his bullpen?
Meoli: Besides Hall, who I tapped as such this week, I am going to go with the Orioles’ rebuild survivors as a group: Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle. They have spent the entire season alternating who is hot and who isn’t, and have waited their entire careers for this weekend. None can truly say he’s in his best moment as the playoffs begin, but if one or two of them can answer the bell offensively, that will deepen the Orioles’ lineup significantly.
What should be Brandon Hyde’s biggest worry?
Allentuck: This offense has shown a tendency to go quiet for a stretch. With the way the Rangers’ pitching staff looked against the Rays, this would be a very bad time for another scoreless streak. No one in their projected starting lineup has playoff experience. We don’t know yet if that’s a good or bad thing, but, if they are unable to produce, it’s natural for frustrations to start to boil. How they handle that under the spotlight will be very telling.
Kostka: More than anything, a short outing from one of Baltimore’s starters could tax a bullpen that is otherwise fully rested entering the ALDS. The five days between Game 162 and Saturday helped to ease a relief corps that was used heavily during a stretch of 17 straight days with a game, but all of that could be hindered should Saturday or Sunday require a parade of relievers.
The built-in off days during the postseason and the presence of a few starting pitchers in the bullpen could help avoid this, but putting pressure on the bullpen early in the postseason would be an inauspicious start.
Mancano: The rest vs. rust debate is as old as time. The five days off between the end of the regular season and the start of the ALDS will certainly benefit the Orioles’ beleaguered bullpen. But how sharp will the O’s hitters be? Hyde is doing his best to walk a fine line between relaxation and preparation by holding workouts at Camden Yards this week, but if Baltimore comes out flat Saturday and Sunday, fans will inevitably blame the long layoff.
Meoli: I won’t argue with Hyde’s assessment that his players are made for the moment. I just think it’s a moment that is hard to prepare for without experiencing it, and I wonder whether the offense is going to stay in its approach and grind out at-bats when the crowd is going insane and one big swing will make it even wilder. That’s a tough trap for young players to resist falling into, and I think it is something he and his staff will have to monitor this weekend.
How do you expect this to play out?
Allentuck: Game 1 will be very telling. I see the Rangers, red hot, coming in and taking Game 1. I predict the Orioles, behind a fiery Grayson Rodriguez, will take Game 2. From there, it’s anyone’s control. I expect the Orioles to come out on top in five games.
Kostka: The Orioles and Rangers split their season series at three games apiece, and this series has the makings of another close affair. Prepare for Game 5 at Camden Yards next week. And, once there, Baltimore should have Kyle Bradish back on the mound after his anticipated Game 1 start, which figures to tip the hand in the Orioles’ favor.
Mancano: Those who have doubted the 2023 Orioles have done so at their own peril. This team’s ability to recover from devastating losses was evident from its first series of the season in Boston. I could see the Rangers taking the opener before the O’s go on a run to win the series in four games.
Meoli: I am envisioning, despite Texas’ offensive outbursts against the Rays, a series in which the Orioles’ starters largely keep them in check and create tense, low-scoring games as the offense finds its playoff footing. That’s a lot of pressure on the Orioles’ bullpen, but it might feel familiar to a team that has won so many close and late games.
