The wild card matchup is set.
The Royals are coming to Baltimore on Tuesday to play the Orioles in the best-of-three series. Game 1 is Tuesday at 4:08 p.m. on ESPN2, followed by Game 2 Wednesday at 4:38 p.m. on ESPN and Game 3, if needed, Thursday at 4:08 p.m. on ESPN.
The winner advances to the American League Division Series to face the Yankees.
What are the Orioles’ chances of making it to the Bronx? Here are three things to know about the matchup.
The Orioles won the season series.
Baltimore went 4-2 against Kansas City this season, but they haven’t faced each other since April.
Much has changed since then. The Orioles lost four starting pitchers — Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells, John Means and Grayson Rodriguez — and infielder Jorge Mateo to season-ending injuries, in addition to a laundry list of other players who were sidelined for part of the season. They went through a second-half offensive slump, but, with reinforcements such as Jordan Westburg and Ryan Mountcastle back, they have won five of their last six.
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The Royals haven’t been immune to injuries either — they are currently without first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who could return for the wild-card series — and they too struggled down the stretch. They went 11-18 in their last 29 games, averaging under three runs a game.
The Royals’ starting pitching duo is deadly.
Left-hander Cole Ragans is expected to start Game 1, followed by right-hander Seth Lugo in Game 2, and they have a 3.14 and a 3.00 ERA, respectively. Michael Wacha, who has 38 innings of postseason experience, could be in line for Game 3.
Lugo started one game against the Orioles this season, allowing four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Ragans started two, in the first allowing no runs in 6 1/3 innings and in the second lasting just 1 1/3 innings as he gave up seven runs.
The Orioles are weaker against left-handed pitching but have refuge with the right-handed bats of Westburg and Mountcastle back. Even so, their lineup for Game 1 will likely still include Austin Slater (averaging .188 against left-handed pitching this year, .250 overall since being traded to the Orioles) and James McCann (.238 season average with a .761 OPS in the second half). That would potentially keep Cedric Mullins and Heston Kjerstad on the bench until a right-handed pitcher enters the game.
The Royals are dangerous on the basepaths.
If Corbin Burnes has had one Achilles heel this season, it’s been his inability to hold runners. He’s allowed a career-high 41 stolen bases.
That’s something the Royals will look to take advantage of. Maikel García (37 stolen bases), Dairon Blanco (31) and Bobby Witt Jr. (31) rank in the top 20 in the league.
Witt is dangerous all around. The shortstop, who was picked second overall in 2019, one spot behind Adley Rutschman, will win the batting title this season after averaging .332. He has 32 home runs and a .977 OPS.
This article has been updated to correct the ERAs of Kansas City starters Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo.