The best time for the Orioles to figure out their second-half slide was weeks ago. The next best time is now — because there’s only 12 games left.
Baltimore begins a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday at Camden Yards. The Orioles then face the Detroit Tigers at Camden Yards, followed by the New York Yankees and Minnesota Twins on the road, to finish the regular season.
The offense, which once was one of the best in baseball, has collapsed since the All-Star break. Their .240 team average in that span is 19th in the majors. While the pitching staff has performed well in recent weeks, the group is still missing some of its best arms due to injury.
The lack of consistency has led Baltimore to a 26-28 record since the break. But they still are in control of their playoff destiny. The Orioles’ magic number to clinch at least the third wild-card spot is six, and they can secure that as early as Thursday. The division will be a bigger challenge, as they are now three games behind the Yankees.
With that in mind, our Orioles experts answered several pertinent questions heading into the final stretch of baseball.
What has been the biggest factor — inexperience, coaching, roster construction — in their second-half struggles?
Andy Kostka, Orioles reporter: The lack of strong leadership in the clubhouse could play as large of a role as the roster construction. Most of these players have never experienced losing this much in their lives — least of all losing while in the spotlight. Baltimore has seemed to be at a loss for how to break out of this rut. Of course, there’s no one thing — injuries have hampered the lineup and pitching staff; the coaching staff has stuck with approaches and plans that don’t seem to be delivering results; and a surprising lack of depth in the roster construction has been apparent. But at a certain point, it’s up to the players in the clubhouse to dig deep. Instead, they seem to be digging a hole with little time left to climb out.
Danielle Allentuck, Orioles reporter: I think it can be all of the above. The coaches haven’t been able to get information across to the healthy players, the roster wasn’t constructed to account for certain injuries and the inexperienced players haven’t been able to handle prolonged slumps. The Orioles have up to four rookies — Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo, Liván Soto and Colton Cowser — in their lineup on any given night. Gunnar Henderson is still only 23 years old and Adley Rutschman is only in his third season. There are veterans in the Orioles clubhouse who excel in one-on-one conversations, but the team does seem to be lacking that strong voice.
Kyle Goon, columnist: As loud as the noise is around the coaching staff right now, the Orioles’ struggles are due to injuries and a crisis of confidence among the hitters. Over the last 30 days, Cedric Mullins has the highest OPS (.885) of anyone with at least 40 at-bats. Adley Rutschman is still slumping. Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo may one day be stars, but they aren’t playing like it right now. I tend to think that confidence is built through experience and steering your own way out of a slump. Manager Brandon Hyde has stabilized the pitching staff and often makes the right calls for pinch hitters. I don’t think it’s his fault that he can’t take at-bats for his young guys who need to figure some things out for themselves.
What is the biggest problem facing the team heading toward the postseason?
Kostka: The collapse of the offense has been particularly worrisome, and after last year’s American League Division Series sweep to the Texas Rangers, another tepid offensive display is a concern. The Orioles were second in on-base-plus-slugging percentage entering the All-Star break (.764) but have a .728 OPS since mid-July. Ryan O’Hearn, Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander have all faced tough stretches. Why is this happening? Some of it is pressure, players and hitting coaches say, as players try to overswing in search of a solution.
Allentuck: It has to be the offense, and at some point you have to stop blaming the injuries and find a way to move forward. The pitching staff has come together nicely despite losing three starters to season-ending elbow surgeries, with another, Grayson Rodriguez, who may not make it back in time for the playoffs. This team will get nowhere in October if the offense can’t get out of this extended rut.
Goon: Flat-out, these guys need better results when their teammates are on base. Last year, the Orioles had the highest average (.287) and OPS (.837) with runners in scoring position. This season, they’re down to 18th (.249) and 19th (.741) in those marks. Some of that has to do with injuries, but some of the key run-producers last season, especially Henderson and Santander, have cooled off this season in those situations. Offense has been so hard to come by lately that Baltimore has to find ways to maximize it.
Which set-to-return injured player could make the biggest impact?
Kostka: There’s no guarantee that a player will return with his timing intact, but adding infielder Jordan Westburg ahead of the playoffs would be a major boost. As Jackson Holliday slumps (with a .197 average since returning at the end of July), the Orioles could use a right-handed-hitting middle infielder. Ramón Urías could also be a boost, but Westburg’s overall offensive numbers are a major part of what’s missing (.269 average, .815 OPS).
Allentuck: Danny Coulombe is already on a rehab assignment, and his return will be very welcomed. He’s not only a key high-leverage left-handed reliever — he had a 2.42 ERA when he had elbow surgery in June — but also a needed leader in the clubhouse.
Goon: For the sake of variety and maybe a little pie-in-the-sky optimism, I would love to see Grayson Rodriguez back for the postseason. He bounced back in a major way from his playoff disappointment against the Rangers last year, and got injured at a truly inopportune moment. He’s running out of runway to get back, just like a bunch of these injured O’s, but getting a starter with his stuff back in the rotation would be a needed emotional boost to the whole squad and give him a shot to redeem himself for last October.
Can the Orioles still catch the Yankees? Will they?
Kostka: They can catch the Yankees for the AL East division title, but the reality is the task may be too difficult now for Baltimore. Should the Orioles enter three games or fewer behind the Yankees when they head to New York for the penultimate series of the year, a strong showing at Yankee Stadium would allow Baltimore to seal a second straight title. But the Orioles are 3-7 in their last 10 games and don’t look as though they’ll make up the ground.
Allentuck: Mathematically they still can, and anything can happen down the stretch. It’s going to take a winning streak, and they’ll need some help. My gut is saying that won’t happen, but remember the Rangers didn’t win their division last year and still went on to win the World Series.
Goon: I don’t expect them to. At this juncture, these games are all incredibly impactful, and the Orioles haven’t been able to rise to the moment in three straight series losses. The most reasonable path to getting there is to sweep the Yankees in the Bronx next week, but that feels like a reach. The Yankees’ biggest bats have done more damage over the last month, especially Aaron Judge. Now it feels like the focus should be on getting this team mentally straightened out for a wild-card series, rather than chasing the Yankees in a race the Orioles are already losing.
