What would your opponent say?
In addition to actually believing what you have to say, one of the main parts of having an opinion is the ability to defend it. So as I maintain my tenuous hold on the stance that these Orioles, despite a half-season’s worth of .500 baseball, have the talent to play better and make noise in October, I have spent a lot of time thinking about what the opposite side of that is.
It’s often easy to see this side of things, and a few weeks ago, this newsletter outright acknowledged the need to plan for the worst with this team. For every spell where the Orioles look like they’re back on track, there are others where they look like a team that might duplicate last year’s three-and-out in the playoffs.
I’m not blind to any of that. And I figured if I was going to spend any more time walking around town defending this team for much longer, I should know why it’s getting me funny looks — and what I might say to counter it. So this is me arguing for why the Orioles are cooked.
They’ve stopped hitting when it counts
Moving Adley Rutschman down in the lineup Monday certainly got him going, but didn’t change the part where the Orioles left opportunities to score runs on the table. It’s not been a thing for long, but it’s a real thing now, and above anything else it has the potential to take this team’s postseason run and end it quickly. There are no low-pressure at-bats in the playoffs; even the opportunity to jump on teams early isn’t really as abundant given you aren’t going to be facing bad starters anymore.
It seems like from the outside, as well as the inside, that the Orioles are gripping their bats too tight — and that’s not going to lessen at any point going forward. It’s a here-and-now issue that will be exacerbated with playoff seeding on the line in New York and Minnesota during the last week of the season, and then will be heightened even further come October.
Perhaps the returns of Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, and Ramón Urías will improve things — if and when they occur. But right now, it’s clear the few producers left in the Orioles’ lineup are putting far too much pressure on themselves and not producing as a result.
They’ve had too many injuries in the rotation
This is an obvious one. As Cade Povich was finishing up his gem last week and the MASN camera cut to a group of pitchers, including Corbin Burnes, Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells all looking at an iPad and cheering the rookie on, I couldn’t help but think of the rotation turnover already this year. Zach Eflin’s acquisition was a season-saver, whether the season goes deep into October or not, but without knowing where Rodriguez is health-wise, it’s fair to wonder beyond Burnes and Eflin if this rotation is good enough to win in October. It would definitely feel better if the Orioles were guaranteed to roll out some combination of Burnes, Bradish, Means, and Rodriguez in the first four games of a playoff series, and the absence of that possibility is rightfully hard to get excited about.
They’re missing a dominant closer at the end of games
Félix Bautista’s absence has loomed large on this team for over a year now, and what he’s left in his wake is a group of pitchers who are largely miscast in their current roles. There’s a reason Yennier Cano was an All-Star last year as a set-up man but hasn’t been as dominant when asked to do more, and why Gregory Soto and Seranthony Domínguez all have closing experience but were available at the trade deadline. It’s because it’s incredibly hard to close consistently, and not everyone can do it.
And other than actually winning the games, it’s valuable to have a reliable and dominant one because it lets the rest of the bullpen make sense. When Danny Coulombe comes back, the Orioles will have him, all the aforementioned relievers, plus lefties Keegan Akin and Cionel Pérez to help them get out of jams in the late innings. But no one feels obvious for the ninth inning, and that creates unease for everyone.
And to all this I say …
Fair points, to be sure. I’m definitely more bullish on the offense figuring it out than anything else, because over the course of a long season players typically find their levels and there are just too many Orioles hitters not at them right now. Rutschman getting hot again will be a difference-maker. But the games when the Orioles hit well are the games when everyone hits, and they can’t just rely on a few guys to do so anymore. Lengthening the lineup will help.
So, too, will shortening up the pitching staff. With an off-day between Games 1 and 2 in the ALDS, the Orioles can use three starters that series if needed, and shift rotation arms to the bullpen to raise the level out there.
None of this is a given. Yet last year, we saw their playoffs crater when a couple things didn’t go the Orioles’ way. October baseball is just different, and it would be foolish not to consider how quickly that could flip, given the talent still available to this team.
If that’s not your position, I hear you. And by virtue of writing this, at least that much should be clear.
Ballpark chatter
“I don’t think what they did would make sense as a copycat here in Baltimore. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t components of it that we couldn’t look into in terms of, ‘How do we continue to reinvest and make sure that we’re creating an amazing experience?’ But I don’t think it’s going to be a copycat of that.”
— Orioles president of business operations Catie Griggs on Georgia’s ballpark village, The Battery
While the fanciful charade of a ballpark village around Camden Yards on the scale of the one in Georgia seemed to die when John Angelos sold the team, I’m thrilled to see someone with the authority to influence such decisions say so out loud. I can’t wait to see what happens in and around the ballpark in the next few years. My great hope is that whatever happens with those oft-empty left field upper reserve seats doesn’t relate in any way, shape, or form with the potential relocation of the press box.
The talent pipeline
The seasons at Delmarva and Aberdeen wrapped up Sunday, and it’s clear to see who is standing out among the next wave of young Orioles pitchers. Six pitchers spent the entire season in the low minors and struck out over a batter per inning in at least 90 innings: Trey Gibson, Braxton Bragg, Edgar Portes, Michael Forret, Blake Money, and Zach Fruit. Fruit and Forret particularly stood out to me this year. All had ERAs in the threes and sustained their success all season long. The Orioles traded some good young pitchers in Jackson Baumeister and Moisés Chace, among others, but this group is anything but lacking.
By the numbers
29%
Colton Cowser is putting a cap on what could be an award-winning rookie season, but if there’s one drawback, it’s his contribution to the Orioles’ situational hitting woes. He’s worst among the team’s regulars in scoring the runner from third with less than two outs, having done so 31 times and bringing him home nine times (29%). He’s also near the bottom of the team’s rankings in advancing a runner from second with nobody out (40%). That feels like the kind of thing that will turn out to be year-to-year noise, though Cowser’s overall strikeout rate (30.1%) is high this year and it’s even higher in those situations. Just something to monitor going forward.
For further reading
💪 Adley’s struggles: It was pretty illuminating hearing what Rutschman had to say about this stretch he’s been in at the plate. I felt good about the process of getting him out of it after reading this from Andy. (The Baltimore Banner)
🚑 So many injuries! This article at FanGraphs focuses on more recent injuries, as in injuries from the last few days, but boy is it grim out there. The Orioles aren’t alone in their health issues, and for once, theirs aren’t getting worse. (FanGraphs)
