Throughout the rest of the offseason, as the Orioles deliberate the best way to add another starting pitcher to the rotation, the calculus could shift the organization’s thinking more toward pursuing a trade than signing a free agent.

The free agent market for higher-end talent has already dwindled in that area, and Baltimore has appeared hesitant to compete with the sort of spending required to attract the services of one of the top arms available.

But the Orioles are in a prime spot to exploit the trade market for starting pitching talent that is under team control for this season — or, even better, beyond — through the use of a deep farm system. For four seasons, the rapid accumulation of prospects through the draft and international signings has put Baltimore in the enviable position of having a surplus.

Now, they could flip that up-and-coming talent for a player who has already arrived and would be ready to prod the Orioles back toward the playoffs.

The exact trade market is tough to pin down. New York Mets right-hander Carlos Carrasco is reportedly available, and the Seattle Mariners were reportedly seeking to trade left-hander Marco Gonzales at last season’s trade deadline. The rest of the picture is hazier. Atlanta Braves left-hander Max Fried could be available, as well as Milwaukee Brewers right-handers Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff and a clutch of hurlers under team control on the Cleveland Guardians and Miami Marlins.

There are options.

First, executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias and his staff will attempt to assess which players are available, and at what cost. This is a more complicated process than it may seem; general managers are constantly discussing multiple players at a time, and the Orioles conduct their own analysis of potential acquisitions, looking at both scouting reports and metrics.

It’s a back-and-forth that could dead-end with some teams and pick up with others. But at this stage, Baltimore finds itself in a position to compete on the trade market if it chooses, leaning on the wealth of the top-ranked farm system in baseball.

“We have the farm system to do it,” Elias said at the winter meetings. “Doesn’t mean we want to lose those guys or give them away, but I think we have the capital to trade for basically anyone who’s on the market.”

It doesn’t mean the Orioles will do so — just that they have the capability. Any trade that would include a starting pitcher under team control through 2023 and beyond would require considerable prospect capital, and potentially an experienced major leaguer as well.

That’s the risk involved, although the Orioles are at a place where the reward of a playoff berth could be well worth it.

“If it does happen, it’s because we like the idea of trading prospects for a pitcher that you’re maybe getting for two or three or even one year, and it just all lines up,” Elias said. “I don’t know that that would cause us to go to the trade route. We’re just trying to find a good deal for us, whether it’s trade or free agency.”

Trade pieces

With the emergence of Gunnar Henderson in the major leagues, there’s likely to be an odd man out of the infield. Five of the Orioles top 11 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline’s rankings, are infielders: Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Coby Mayo and Connor Norby.

Henderson appears off limits, given his immediate success in the majors and potential to be a franchise cornerstone in the future. But the rest of the group creates an attractive set of players for a team willing to part ways with a starting pitcher. Westburg, Joey Ortiz (No. 17) and Norby all reached Triple-A Norfolk by the end of last season and immediately performed.

They create the deepest group in the organization, and it’s within that the Orioles could feel most comfortable subtracting to add a starting pitcher.

But the core of prospect infielders isn’t the lone area Baltimore could exploit. Elias noted how including major leaguers on both sides of the deal might not be ideal for a team on the cusp of a breakthrough. That could be required, however, to create an intriguing enough package for a team to part ways with a starter under team control.

Signing Adam Frazier gave Baltimore infield flexibility. Ramón Urías, fresh off a Gold Glove award, Terrin Vavra or Jorge Mateo could all be pieces that intrigue teams. In the outfield, Austin Hays or Anthony Santander could slot right into another organization’s starting lineup. With right-hander Mychal Givens agreeing to terms on a one-year deal, the Orioles could even delve into their improved bullpen depth.

Look to the past

All that is to say, any trade for a starter who would project as a top-end option in the Orioles rotation will include a hefty package. Most trades for starting pitchers occur at the deadline as a rental, and even those can include multi-prospect packages for partial seasons.

To do it in the offseason, especially for a pitcher with more than one season of team control remaining, would only escalate that.

In 2020, for instance, the San Diego Padres traded away nine players in the trades that landed left-hander Blake Snell, right-hander Yu Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini. Snell is under team control through 2023.

Among those headed to the Chicago Cubs and Tampa Bay Rays were two established major leaguers: right-hander Zach Davies and catcher Francisco Mejía. The rest were prospects, including right-hander Luis Patiño — then-ranked the Padres’ No. 3 prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, and No. 23 in baseball overall.

When right-hander Shelby Miller was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks after an All-Star 2015 season in Atlanta, the Braves received three players, including future Gold Glover Ender Inciarte and future All-Star Dansby Swanson, then the 10th-ranked prospect in baseball.

The Houston Astros parted ways with four players to land right-hander Gerrit Cole in 2018, including pitchers Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, and the Astros’ fifth- and 15th-ranked prospects.

Each took a haul.

The ask

Baltimore is in a position now, though, to offer those sorts of hauls — if they deem the returning value maximizes playoff odds in the present while not throwing away the future.

There’s no clear way to know what package might work for which team.

For the Marlins, with starters such as Pablo López, Jesús Luzardo and Trevor Rogers potentially available, including Hays or Santander could help sway them. Miami lacked much offensive support from of its outfielders in 2022, and Hays and Santander are proven upgrades. And while the Marlins have infielders all over their Top-30 prospect rankings, none of their up-and-coming middle infielders break MLB Pipeline’s Top 100.

The Cleveland Guardians have several starters under team control, including right-handers Shane Bieber, Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie. Whether any of them would be moveable is another question, especially with Cleveland’s strong farm system.

Even if the Brewers don’t want to move Burnes or Woodruff, left-hander Eric Lauer might be more feasible. Then there’s Carrasco on the Mets, Fried on the Braves, and Gonzales on the Mariners. Any one of those clubs could be swayed by a deal that includes a top-level prospect in Baltimore’s system.

It’s all part of the evaluation — then valuation — that each side of a trade will undergo. The Orioles have the pieces to do it. Whether they find the right fit at the right price will be seen.

andy.kostka@thebaltimorebanner.com