What does it look like when Mike Elias is freed from the constraints of his previous bean-counting owner?
Don’t let the crazy influx of eight new Orioles sway you. So far, things look fairly similar.
It’s not that the Baltimore Orioles, still jockeying at the top of the American League, haven’t made an effort to get better. It’s not that they haven’t added payroll. It’s not that their flurry of trade deadline moves won’t help the Orioles down the final two-month stretch and into the postseason.
But if you look closely, the Orioles haven’t changed all that much in the kinds of moves they look to make. They add depth, hold onto their most prized prospects and seize on pieces that they think they can improve and keep under team control.
The Orioles have called this season “The Next Chapter,” but from a roster and payroll management perspective, it looks pretty similar to the last.
With the Orioles sitting at 63-44 as Tuesday’s trade deadline passed, no one is under closer scrutiny than Elias. The ownership group led by David Rubenstein and Michael Arougheti has infused new energy and promise for the long-term future of the Orioles and Camden Yards, but it has made as clear as possible through all channels, both public and private, that Elias has all authority in baseball decisions. The group is there to support him.
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For all intents and purposes, we’re seeing Elias in his most empowered form yet. But if you expected it to be a huge divergence from how he did things under John Angelos, who cast gloomy forecasts about the team’s ability to pay stars, we’re still waiting to be knocked over.
When you look at the incoming players the Orioles got at the deadline — Zach Eflin, Eloy Jiménez, Trevor Rogers, Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto ranking as perhaps the most consequential — the pure volume of newcomers is what stands out the most. There’s a lot of new faces, but most of these players have clear-cut pros and cons. Several of them are deeply flawed, fringe-y big leaguers. All in all, it feels a bit of an underwhelming infusion, not the kind of moves that push the Orioles over the top of the foes hot on their heels.
Discussing the deal for Rogers in the Camden Yards press box, a colleague remarked how similar it seemed to the Orioles 2022 deal for Cole Irvin: a big left-hander with a relatively low velocity and a high ERA who might have some upside. Given that Baltimore just designated Irvin for assignment on Tuesday, it wasn’t the most flattering comparison about a new addition who is supposed to shore up the rotation.
The Orioles added payroll, but Eflin ($18 million in 2025) is the only one who definitely seems hooked in for big money for next season. The last two seasons and $35 million of Jiménez’s contract is controlled by team options — while some observers have called the trade a “salary dump,” the Orioles taking on the pro rata of his final year of guaranteed money (along with cash considerations) isn’t really all that costly. It’s more of a rental for a right-handed outfielder who could help them down the stretch, or be cut inconsequentially this offseason.
Rogers is still in his arbitration years through 2026. Soto has one year of arbitration left. Domínguez is on a one-year deal. None of the remaining bats the Orioles acquired at the deadline seem destined to upend the youth movement flowing upward from the farm system, and some of them may not even be Orioles for long.
If you take for granted that Corbin Burnes does not return to Baltimore, and that the O’s let Anthony Santander walk next season, you begin to realize that very little about the Orioles’ place in the MLB hierarchy has changed (they’ll shed their three highest contracts, in fact, if they don’t pick up Craig Kimbrel’s $13 million option). No one expects their spending to rank up with the Dodgers, Yankees or Mets. But they haven’t really moved up much at all.
This is a team still in the bottom third of MLB payroll, yet enjoying the second-largest rise in per-game attendance, a boost in TV ratings and ownership with deeper pockets. But that increased profitability and theoretical backing for the front office has not yet resulted in long-term extensions for stars. The deadline moves that the Orioles made, while important, still feel somewhat marginal. Eflin is the most likely to help this season, but almost everyone else feels like a lottery ticket or an incremental improvement.
It’s hard to say the Orioles could have been a lot more impactful without giving up top prospects like Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo — who most fans would rather see in orange anyway.
The idea of landing Detroit’s Tarik Skubal or Chicago’s Garrett Crochet, widely considered the impact arms of the deadline, was probably fantastical to begin with. Other deadline movers such as Toronto’s Yusei Kikuchi or Miami’s Tanner Scott went for steep prices that Baltimore historically isn’t willing to pay.
But it has to be noted: The Orioles didn’t grab the kind of addition that might tilt the scales. After a slow, injury-riddled beginning to the season, lefthander Blake Snell has been mowing down opponents for just two earned runs in his last four starts, including a 15-strikeout appearance on July 27. Adding a World Series starter could have made a seismic impact on the Orioles rotation, but adding a $38.5 million player option to next year’s payroll would have definitely made an impact on the Orioles’ bottom line.
In Houston, Elias’ Astros needed to add Justin Verlander midseason to get over the top in 2017. The Orioles are still looking for a deadline move that feels that consequential.
The wait to see what new ownership has brought to Elias and the front office now shifts to the offseason. The Orioles are still in good position. But the lack of long-term contracts for the stars and the reticence to acquire expensive talent still lingers as a question if he can make Baltimore a great postseason performer.
As much as salaries, contract years and prospect rankings matter, the numbers that should be motivating everyone in Baltimore’s front office are last year’s playoff record: 0-3.
So much about the franchise has changed since then, but the front office’s ambitions still feel stagnant at best.
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