The phenomenon is fresh in the Orioles’ minds, because they fell victim to it last October. A wild-card team got hot in the playoffs and knocked off a heavily favored division winner.
That was the Texas Rangers, who blew through the 101-win Orioles with a three-game sweep in the American League Division Series en route to a World Series title. Texas defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks, another wild-card team, marking the third time two wild cards faced off in the Fall Classic.
As the Orioles prepare for October as the top wild-card seed — with the series against the Kansas City Royals beginning Tuesday at Camden Yards — they are taking heart in the recent history of wild-card runs. In late September, manager Brandon Hyde pointed to the Rangers as a blueprint for his Orioles to make their own deep run.
“Texas finished the season terribly, flew across the country and all of a sudden got pissed off and started swinging the bat and we ran into it,” he recalled. “They rolled it all the way to the World Series. So it’s definitely possible, and we’ll see.”
The idea has merit: Get hot at the right time, and a team’s regular-season performance hardly matters. When October begins, postseason games can be fluky. Just about any team can win a three-game, five-game or seven-game series against any other team.
But Hyde’s recollection is a bit off. After reinforcing their roster heavily ahead of the trade deadline, acquiring aces Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery and relievers Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton, the Rangers posted winning records in August and September. And, although they lost three of their last four games to miss out on winning the American League West, the Rangers returned to form in the postseason, winning five straight games to land in the American League Championship Series and, eventually, the top of the baseball world.
That, of course, is different than what Baltimore has done. The Orioles added right-handers Zach Eflin and Seranthony Domínguez and left-hander Gregory Soto, but they lost more through injuries and their position-player pickups haven’t panned out. One of their top acquisitions, left-hander Trevor Rogers, was demoted to the minors due to poor performance. And, compared to Texas’ winning record in the final months of the season in 2023, Baltimore finished 33-33 in the second half, with losing records in July and August.
The Orioles have, however, shown promising signs lately. With five wins in its last six games, Baltimore ended September with a winning record (13-12). By finishing with a .500 record since the All-Star break, the Orioles avoided an attempt to join a small group.
Over the last decade, just one team has made the World Series after compiling a losing record in the second half of the season: last year’s Diamondbacks. They’re an outlier in multiple ways. The World Series matchup primarily has featured division winners who finished the season strong. Fourteen of the 20 teams over the last 10 years were division winners, and they collectively posted a .615 winning percentage in the second half.
The five other wild-card teams that advanced all the way to the World Series, on the whole, also performed better than the Orioles in the final months of the year:
- 2014 Kansas City Royals: After finishing the first half slightly above .500, the Royals went 41-27 in the second half and reeled off eight straight wins in the playoffs — including a four-game sweep of the Orioles in the American League Championship Series — to reach the World Series, where they faced the ...
- 2014 San Francisco Giants: The eventual champions were actually a better team in the first half with a .552 winning percentage. But their 35-31 record after the break was good enough to get them a wild card, and they rode a dominant stretch by ace Madison Bumgarner to win a ring in seven games.
- 2019 Washington Nationals: Washington went on a tear in the second half with a record of 46-27, finishing four back of the Atlanta Braves in the National League East with a record of 93-69. A three-run eighth-inning comeback got the Nationals past the Brewers in the wild-card game, and they took down the Dodgers and the Cardinals to face the Astros in the World Series. It went to seven games, with Washington winning all four games on the road.
- 2022 Philadelphia Phillies: A 22-29 start led to the firing of manager Joe Girardi. Under new skipper Rob Thomson, the Phillies went 65-46, including a 38-32 record after the break. That was a slight improvement over their first-half performance but not nearly enough to catch the Braves and Mets, who finished with 101 wins apiece, in the National League East. In the playoffs, however, Philly overpowered the Cardinals, Braves and Padres before losing to the Astros in the World Series, four games to two.
- 2023 Texas Rangers: Texas finished the second half of the season 38-33 to end the year with 90 wins. And, although the Rangers tied for first place in the American League West, Houston held the tiebreaker and Texas was forced into the wild card. Then the Rangers steamrolled to a ring, taking the World Series in five games.
The 2023 Diamondbacks are the closest comparison for this year’s Orioles. Like Baltimore, they posted a strong first-half record before stumbling. Arizona went 52-39 before the break and 32-39 after it. But they showed signs of life over the final month and posted a winning record of 15-13. The 2024 Orioles did the same, getting healthier before finishing one game above .500 in September.
They have received a boost with the recent return of regular players Ramón Urías, Ryan Mountcastle, Jordan Westburg, Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb, along with prospect Heston Kjerstad.
Those hitters could provide a jolt to the Orioles’ sluggish second-half offense. Baltimore’s team average before the All-Star break was .253, good for ninth in the majors. Entering Sunday, the Orioles’ .246 average in the second half was 14th. Other wild-card teams to make runs performed better on offense in the second half. The 2019 Nationals went from 13th to second in batting average, and the 2022 Phillies jumped from 13th to third. The 2014 Giants leaped from 26th to third, and the Royals marginally dropped from fifth to ninth.
That’s another area where the 2023 Rangers and Diamondbacks offer a glimmer of hope. Both were hit by offensive regressions. The Diamondbacks fell from ninth to 23rd and the Rangers from first to 17th between the first and second halves. In the postseason, they turned it around.
Hyde and others believe, if the Rangers and Diamondbacks did it last year, the Orioles can too.
“No doubt,” Hyde said. “We have the offensive ability. We showed it in the first half. We have the ability to do it. We’re throwing the ball well. Our pitching’s been good. Our starting pitching has given us a chance almost every game.”
