No one is going to stick their nose up at a meaningful series in the last week of September at Yankee Stadium.
The stakes of this one, however, are going to be turned way down thanks to the events of the last few weeks.
Both the Orioles and Yankees had 83 wins on Sept. 10 — just two weeks ago — with the Orioles a half-game back due to having one more loss. The Orioles won three of their next 10, and the Yankees won nine of 11 to ensure that only the hosts can win the division this week in the Bronx. Brandon Hyde’s club can still clinch a playoff spot with a win combined with losses from Kansas City or Minnesota on Tuesday, but they’ll have to win out and the Yankees will have to lose out for the division to be in play.
Dropping a pair of series to Detroit and one to Boston and San Francisco in that span hasn’t helped the Orioles’ cause. But what’s proven more damaging, honestly, was that as the Orioles were playing their best baseball of the season through May and June, the Yankees were too.
The two teams were tied for first place on May 13, and the Yankees pulled ahead by a half-game when the Orioles and Blue Jays were washed out on May 14. Remember the Orioles’ first time being swept in the regular season in forever when they went to St. Louis and lost three straight from May 20-22? The deficit ballooned the three games at that point.
From there, the Orioles went on arguably their best run of the season. They swept the terrible White Sox in four games to kick off a stretch that encapsulates so many of the best performances of their season. The Orioles had a four-game sweep at Tampa Bay in early June. The Braves and Phillies came to town, had their best starters battered, and left with series losses.
That brought the Orioles, winners of 21 of their last 31, to Yankee Stadium. The Yankees went 23-9 in that same span of time. We remember that they seemed to always win and lose on the same day all summer, and it started then.
And yet when the Orioles visited the Yankees in mid-June, they were still 1.5 games back and even though the Orioles won that series, it only brought them a half-game behind New York.
Then, despite having lost so many of their top arms to injury, the Orioles were in first place in early July. They went out west on July 2, tied for the division lead, and came back with a three-game cushion. The Orioles were not particularly imposing that month — they went 12-13 and allowed 19 more runs than they scored — but spent all of it in first place because the Yankees went 11-13.
That changed in August when it was more back-and-forth. From July 27 through Sept. 11 — 46 days, accounting for basically a quarter of the season — the division was within 1.5 games either way. The Orioles entered Sept. 11 a half-game back when Keegan Akin allowed that monster walk-off home run to Tyler O’Neill, and the deficit grew from there.
We know why. The Orioles stopped hitting with runners in scoring position, for starters. The bullpen feels unsettled despite now being Craig Kimbrel-less and thus featuring a lot of pitchers who have had good seasons and pitched well.
Unless there’s a disaster in the next week, the Orioles will be in the playoffs. There’s a pretty good chance they’ll be back in New York for the American League Division Series if they get that far. The Yankees are about to claim the spoils of a long season in winning another division title. They were at their best at the same time the Orioles were, and now when it matters.
Who will be at their best in October in a short series? That would be worth the box-office hype.
Meoli’s mailbag
“Obviously, I am not near the team, so I can’t fairly judge team chemistry. But it is my opinion that Jordan Westburg has the most impact on team chemistry … day-to-day on the field, and perhaps overall. If I’m the opposing manager, he’s the guy I least want to face with a tie game, bases loaded and two out in a key spot. … Others may be more of a threat to hit one “out” but the O’s have missed Westburg more than any everyday player. Your opinion on the intangibles?”
— Jeff LeVine
Jeff sent this last week before Jordan Westburg returned, and I just nodded as I read it. I’m not in the business of caring about leadership or clubhouse chemistry — winning fixes most of that and this team hasn’t won consistently for months — but on the field, they’ve missed Westburg a ton. He was an All-Star for a reason, and his consistency was a big factor. When I wrote about how he does the same thing pregame every day last summer, it was to demonstrate how reliable he wanted to be and would ultimately become. If you are consistent in your swing, your approach and your preparation, those moments where the game can swing feel no different than those low-leverage ones where some of his teammates have feasted. That’s what makes Westburg special. This team is lucky to have him back.
📫 Have a question? Write to me here.
Talent pipeline
Samuel Basallo, the Orioles’ 19-year-old catching prospect, became FanGraphs’ top prospect this week after some graduations and reshuffling. That’s the high-water mark for Basallo in the national rankings, but certainly isn’t crazy. He had an .820 OPS with 16 home runs in 446 plate appearances at Double-A Bowie, then finished with a .638 OPS in 21 games at Triple-A Norfolk as the youngest player at the level. He’s improving behind the plate and makes a serious impact at it. It’s going to be a coin flip for me between him and Coby Mayo atop the organization’s top prospect rankings this fall.
Stats
96
Keegan Akin is in a unique season in Orioles history. He’s at 96 strikeouts with a 0.930 WHIP with a week to go, and if he gets to 100 punchouts, he’ll be the second Orioles pitcher ever to fan that many batters exclusively out of the bullpen while carrying a sub-one WHIP in at least 70 innings. Stu Miller did so in 1965. Félix Bautista had 110 strikeouts last year in just 61 innings before his elbow injury — and in far higher-stakes situations than Akin has this year — but this just feels noteworthy to me. Keegan Akin. Who would have thought?
For further reading
⚾️ Santander the slugger: There was another great edition of FanGraphs’ Talks Hitting series last week, this one with Anthony Santander. He deserves all the positive attention he’s getting. (Fangraphs)
😥 It’s been a slog: The Orioles’ inability to clinch this weekend at home highlighted just how hard pretty much everything involving this team has been, as Kyle noted. He also notes there’s a case they’ll be better for it. (The Baltimore Banner)
🔎 Their best minor league pitcher? Big Brandon Young guy here, and it was really cool to see him honored by the organization. I didn’t see him pitch fully healthy until this year, and it made sense why I heard so much about him. Andy has his story here; I still reserve the right to put him in the hallowed halls of Arms on the Farm. (The Baltimore Banner)
