The top-seeded Ravens will face the fourth-seeded Houston Texans in the AFC’s divisional round at 4:30 p.m. Saturday in Baltimore. Here are predictions from The Baltimore Banner’s sports staff.
Kyle Goon, columnist
There are better teams left in the playoffs than the Texans, and yet somehow this feels like the crucial hump to get over. It’s been a while since the Ravens’ best players all lined up, including Lamar Jackson, and that hasn’t always translated to sharp performances. There is a mound of pressure on Jackson and this generation of Ravens to break through into the AFC championship game, where contemporaries such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow have been before. Even though the team has looked loose, it’s hard to discount the mental toll of trying not to repeat the 2019 disappointment.
All that being said, this is a team that is more mature and more versatile and it has not just shown up for big games but blown opponents out. The Texans might be able to slow the Ravens’ rushing attack and they might get a few big plays through Nico Collins on offense, but they probably can’t account for a rested, scheming Ravens team that has destroyed opposing QBs. As for Jackson, he’s been nearly impossible to scheme against this season. He’s never had a better opportunity to get over the divisional-round hump, and this feels like the weekend he finally graduates to the stage where he clearly belongs.
Ravens 27, Texans 17
Jonas Shaffer, reporter
So much has changed since the 2019 playoffs, when the Ravens flopped at home as huge favorites over the Tennessee Titans. So much has changed since Week 1, when the Ravens won comfortably, if not convincingly, against a rebuilding Texans team. What hasn’t changed is the pressure on Lamar Jackson, John Harbaugh and this Ravens franchise.
So, yeah, a little tightness early in Saturday’s game would not be surprising. The Ravens haven’t scored a point in the first quarter of Jackson’s four playoff starts, and they’ve allowed 26. But water finds its level eventually. The Ravens have the better offense, the better defense and the better injury situation. They’re also playing at home. Over the course of a 60-minute game, those advantages matter.
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Ravens 28, Texans 24
Giana Han, reporter
C.J. Stroud is on a roll. Lamar Jackson is on a roll. Stroud has shown continuous improvement. Jackson has shown he can shine when the test is toughest. Despite the weather, I don’t expect this to be a low-scoring game because those two players will find a way.
It just so happens that the Texans’ strength, their passing offense, matches the Ravens’ strength, their passing defense. The Texans have a stalwart run defense, and the Ravens have a stout running offense. The Texans don’t have a good running offense, and the Ravens’ run defense hasn’t been a highlight. The area where the two teams don’t align is the Texans’ passing coverage and the Ravens’ wideouts. Although the Ravens haven’t had one star, they’ve seen contributions from up and down the roster. If Jackson’s targets make the catches, I think they run away with it. But both of these teams will rise or fall with their quarterbacks.
Ravens 30, Texans 24
Chris Korman, editor
I think the layoff is a big deal. Football is a game of rhythm and synchronicity, and as much as plays can be practiced they can only be perfected at full speed, with everything on the line. We saw a very polished Ravens team dispatch the 49ers and Dolphins and ... I’m just not sure this group, after an extended layoff for many of the key players, can possibly hope to get right back to that level.
So it’s on the coordinators. Mike Macdonald and Todd Monken spent time over the last week talking to other NFL teams about head coaching positions. But they also needed to be scripting the early part of this game, crafting plans that were complex enough to surprise while being well worn enough to give players a chance to acclimate to the moment.
The Texans aren’t afraid and don’t know better. It’s going to be cold Saturday. Ravens fans will be frothing. And Houston, I’m guessing, will shrug at all of it and throw deep and then throw deep again. The Texans have swagger. Earned swagger.
But I think the Ravens are a mature group with nearly impeccable leadership. They’ll stagger through some early rough patches but ultimately pull away.
Ravens 31, Texans 22
Brandon Weigel, editor
You have to throw out the regular-season results when it comes time to for the playoffs. And you should really, really, really throw out the Week 1 Ravens-Texans game when you start to think about this divisional-round matchup.
It was rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud’s first game as a pro, and he was held to 242 yards on 44 attempts, or 5.5 yards per attempt, and zero touchdowns. He was sacked five times (11 of the 38 times he’s been sacked came in his first two games). He’s gotten much more acclimated to the NFL since, throwing for 4,108 yards (8.2 yards per attempt) and 23 touchdowns on the season, making him the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Although the Ravens won 25-9 in September, there are some negative aspects about Baltimore’s performance you have to set aside, too. Quarterback Lamar Jackson, the favorite to win MVP, had only 169 passing yards and an interception. And he fumbled twice. Remember all those early-season fumbles? They’re much less of a problem now.
As good as the Texans looked against the Joe Flacco-led Cleveland Browns, I think the Ravens get a leg up with the bye week off, even if the return of tight end Mark Andrews doesn’t materialize. Already missing wide receivers Tank Dell and Noah Brown, Houston is banged up coming into Saturday, with three players missing practice this week and seven others limited in their participation — many of the walking wounded are on the defensive line, including key contributors Will Anderson Jr., Sheldon Rankins, Maliek Collins and Jonathan Greenard.
Baltimore wins upfront, and it’s on to the AFC championship game.
Ravens 28, Texans 20
