It was an ugly game that raised a lot of concerns, but the Ravens’ 37-31 win Sunday over the Los Angeles Rams accomplished an important goal: It moved the team one step closer to the playoffs.

At 10-3, the Ravens are almost guaranteed to make the postseason, according to The New York Times’ playoff picture, which has their chances at over 99%. Only four other teams are virtual locks: the San Francisco 49ers (10-3), Miami Dolphins (9-3), Philadelphia Eagles (10-3) and Dallas Cowboys (10-3).

But it’s not just about making the playoffs. The NFL’s elite are also battling for a first-round bye and home-field advantage. And after losses Sunday by the division-leading Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) and Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5), the Ravens and Dolphins are now heavy co-favorites to claim the AFC’s top seed. According to the Times, each team’s odds are about 43%; the Chiefs are a distant third, at 11%.

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Here’s a look at how the Ravens and their competitors in the AFC stack up entering Monday.

AFC East: Dolphins (9-3)

Playoff berth: Over 99%

Division title: 97%

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First-round bye: 43%

Remaining schedule: vs. Tennessee Titans, vs. New York Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, at Buffalo Bills

The Dolphins’ odds will change once they play the Titans on “Monday Night Football,” but if they win, as expected, they’d tie the Ravens atop the AFC. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s high-powered offense will face a great test against the Cowboys in Week 16, but their New Year’s Eve matchup against the Ravens could decide the AFC’s pecking order. Should the two finish with the same record, head-to-head results would the all-important tiebreaker.

AFC North: Ravens (10-3)

Playoff berth: Over 99%

Division title: 87%

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First-round bye: 43%

Remaining schedule: at Jaguars, at 49ers, vs. Dolphins, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

From offense to defense to special teams, the Ravens have a lot to figure out if they want to avoid another grinder of a game against their daunting schedule. A division title, meanwhile, is far from assured, especially with the Cleveland Browns (8-5) lurking, just two games behind in the division. If they tie for the AFC North’s best record, the next applicable tiebreaker would be divisional record. Both teams are 3-2 in the AFC North, so a lot could ride on Week 18, when the Browns face the Cincinnati Bengals and the Ravens take on the Steelers.

AFC South: Jaguars (8-5)

Playoff berth: 92%

Division title: 84%

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First-round bye: 2%

Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, vs. Carolina Panthers, at Titans

While the Jaguars have a good chance of making the playoffs and winning their division, they’re not really in the race to claim the conference’s top seed. On Sunday night in Jacksonville, however, they can still hurt the Ravens’ chances at home-field advantage. If quarterback Trevor Lawrence is healthy (or healthy enough), the Jaguars should take care of the rest of a manageable schedule.

AFC West: Chiefs (8-5)

Playoff berth: 98%

Division title: 91%

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First-round bye: 11%

Remaining schedule: at New England Patriots, vs. Las Vegas Raiders, vs. Bengals, at Los Angeles Chargers

Early Sunday night, the Chiefs were among the teams with 99% playoff odds — and then they lost to the Bills. Taylor Swift will still probably get the chance to watch some playoff football, but she might have to travel outside Missouri for the games. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City were once thought to be the Ravens’ biggest obstacle in the AFC, but then his receivers stopped making plays. The Chiefs have just one team with a winning record left on their schedule — the Joe Burrow-less Bengals — so they could roll into the playoffs on a winning streak. They’re not the Chiefs of 2022, but they’ll still be someone to keep an eye on in the playoffs.

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