As fast as Lamar Jackson is, for much of his career, he’s been chasing Patrick Mahomes.
But, when you’re in pursuit of the top spot, the competition can sneak up from behind. In the eyes of the NFL intelligentsia, Buffalo’s Josh Allen is making a push to unseat Jackson in the hierarchy — and some would argue he’s there already.
A heavyweight Sunday night match in Baltimore finds Allen off to a breezy 3-0 start, showing seemingly newfound impulse control as a passer with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. After powering a 47-10 “Monday Night Football” win over Jacksonville, the Bills quarterback has been heralded as an early MVP favorite.
ESPN’s Mina Kimes said Allen has “clearly been the best quarterback in the NFL this season” on her podcast this week. Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer called Allen the MVP front-runner on “The Dan Patrick Show.”
It’s an interesting development from what Jackson’s and Allen’s NFL peers had to say just this August. An ESPN poll of 100 players voted Jackson the second-best quarterback in the league, running up to Mahomes. Allen rated fourth but also got the most votes for “most overrated quarterback.”
Since neither has won a Lombardi Trophy (or even played in a Super Bowl), Jackson’s two MVP awards are a serious hardware advantage. But that doesn’t stop Allen’s supporters from arguing he’s the superior player.
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FTN Fantasy’s Aaron Schatz’s lone dissenting vote against Jackson’s 2023 MVP award will live on in infamy in Baltimore, but with Allen’s fast start, his viewpoint is gaining steam. When I asked Schatz this week about the perception of Allen “raising his game,” he laughed. Allen has been his No. 2 quarterback behind Mahomes for the past few years.
“To me, the idea ‘Josh Allen has risen his game’ is not as correct as ‘Josh Allen has had three good games,’” Schatz said. “He was always very good. He was this good last year.”
Sunday’s game could be an important data point in a watercooler discussion that seems endless. Every statistical argument seems to spiral into its discussion, rather than drawing us closer to a resolution.
More passing yards? Allen. Fewer turnovers? Jackson. More touchdowns (passing and rushing)? Allen. More rushing yards? Jackson. Who has had the best receiver as a teammate? Allen. Who has been supported by the better overall team? Probably Jackson.
Both are dual-threat quarterbacks, but there’s a wide stylistic gap. Allen has a cannon for an arm but can break tackles like a fullback. Jackson’s electric speed and jazzlike improvisational ability on passing plays has no real precedent.
Key statistical markings have made Allen a darling this season. He’s completed a league-best 75% of his passes. Although he lost top target Stefon Diggs, he’s spread out the ball even more. No one has more than 20% of Allen’s targets.
The debate can go toxic places in online corridors. As ever, racist tropes follow Jackson’s ascent, as they have since he was at Louisville. Jackson was discounted by teams in the same draft as Allen in part because they doubted his ability to play quarterback, even though he had won a Heisman Trophy playing that position. But there are uncomfortable defensive postures related to that, too. Schatz felt online trolls were all too willing to cast him as a racist for picking Allen over Jackson, despite his statistics-based arguments and that Dallas’ Dak Prescott was second on his list over Jackson, too.
Even outside of the unsettling curdling of Jackson-Allen debates, Schatz says, if one guy is ranked above another, public perception seems to amplify the margins between them.
“One thing that’s frustrating to me is that everyone is either elite or they suck,” he said. “Lamar is not my No. 2 quarterback, but he’s really special.”
Jackson is often reticent to talk about opposing quarterbacks in any way, flattering or not. “I really don’t care who’s out there playing [against us],” he said Wednesday. “I’m just trying to get a win.” He’s 2-1 against Allen in the regular season but 0-1 in the playoffs.
Allen was more open to giving Jackson his flowers, perhaps a reflection of how much effort it takes to be considered one of the two-time MVP’s peers. He called Jackson “an inspiration” who has silenced those who doubted he could be this good.
“He’s really changed the way that, I think, guys play the game, but make no mistake about it, he can throw the snot out of the football,” Allen said. “Got a lot of respect for him, a lot of love for him, love watching him play because every play is never dead with him. He’s got a crazy ability to keep plays alive and make guys miss and then get the ball downfield, so he’s a special player.”
The desire to clarify the pecking order could be beside the point. In talking about the matchup, several Ravens offered words of admiration and reverence to be a part of a duel between two high-level QBs in their primes. Coach John Harbaugh said, “These are the things that you’re going to look back on and you’re going to say, ‘Wow, wasn’t that cool to be there for that?’”
Linebacker Kyle Van Noy compared the matchup to years when he played for the New England Patriots, when Tom Brady would face Aaron Rodgers. In his eyes, Jackson-Allen is on a similar plane.
“I think the young guys will look back on it when they’re done playing, kind of like I will, and be like, ‘Man, I got to play with those two young guys,’” Van Noy said. “I think it’s awesome, and it’s going to be special to be there Sunday night at The Bank.”
