Training camp in Owings Mills has wrapped up. The preseason is (mercifully) over. The Ravens’ initial 53-man roster is set. What better time, then, to imagine everything going right in their 2024 season?
Oh, wait. Sorry, we did that Wednesday. Time to imagine worst-case scenarios. With the Ravens’ Week 1 game against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs less than a week away, here are 10 reasons this season could be a train wreck.
1. Their offensive line could be a disaster.
After three preseason games, the line’s performance might have filled you with dread. Sure, it was the preseason, and not every projected starting lineman played. But not many opposing starters played, either. Those were defensive backups who were making some Ravens first-stringers look bad. They struggled with every facet of their game, from run blocking to pass protecting.
There’s still a chance this year’s line could turn out to be great. There are a lot of young guys who have room for growth. Only starting left tackle Ronnie Stanley, Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum, and the versatile Patrick Mekari and Josh Jones have significant NFL experience. But young, inexperienced players such as guard Andrew Vorhees and guard-tackle Daniel Faalele will be called upon to fill significant roles. Linderbaum and Stanley didn’t play in the preseason, so their return could make a big difference. But will it be enough? Can the group come together amid the tragic death of offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris?
If not, the Ravens will expose their most important player, quarterback Lamar Jackson, to huge injury risks. They’ll also risk wasting their investment in running back Derrick Henry, who struggled last season behind a dreadful Tennessee Titans line. And, if offensive coordinator Todd Monken can’t get the run game going, it’ll be harder to succeed through the air.
Everything starts with Jackson and the offensive line in front of him. It was one of the NFL’s best units last season, and the offense was one of the NFL’s best, too. But there’s a chance the Ravens misjudged their in-house options this offseason, as well as their evaluation of how quickly second-round pick Roger Rosengarten could contribute at right tackle.
2. A slimmer Lamar Jackson could face a higher risk of injuries.
Injuries are always a concern for Jackson — or any quarterback, really. But this year the risk and the fallout could be far greater than normal. If the Ravens’ line can’t do a good job protecting Jackson, he’ll be susceptible to more high-risk hits. Jackson lost a lot of weight during the offseason, which means he could be better equipped to evade those collisions. It also means he has a slighter frame, with potentially less padding to protect him.
Injuries come in all shapes and sizes, as Jackson’s history has shown. He could suffer a season-ending injury or a short-term injury or none at all this season. But, given their options at backup quarterback, the Ravens can’t withstand an absence of longer than two games. Even that might be too long. If the Ravens are in a playoff race that comes down to the final two weeks and Josh Johnson has to step in, it’s not a given that he’ll walk away with even a 1-1 record.
Jackson has to stay healthy. The Ravens’ season depends on it.
3. Their defensive coordinator is (almost assuredly) a downgrade.
This is not a knock on Zach Orr. It would be hard for anyone to replicate what Mike Macdonald pulled off last season. His innovative defense, which disguised coverages and utilized players at various positions, made history with its triple crown, finishing first in the league in sacks (60), points allowed (16.5 per game) and takeaways (31). The Ravens not only had the NFL’s best defense in 2023, according to FTN, but they were also far and away the best team against elite offenses.
Orr might have the potential to be as good or even better than Macdonald, but he has a lot of catching up to do. Macdonald was hired as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator in 2022 after leading a turnaround of Michigan’s defense. Even with that play-calling experience, he had growing pains in Baltimore before he settled in against NFL schemes.
Orr, meanwhile, was elevated from his job as a positional coach and does not have play-calling experience. The Ravens built in play-calling practice during camp, and he gained experience during preseason, but those are games where coaches on both sides are careful not to show their hands. Orr will need time to get the hang of the job on game days. His first test won’t be an easy one, though: Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs await in prime time.
4. The organization experienced a brain drain.
Macdonald, now the Seattle Seahawks’ head coach, wasn’t the only talent to depart the Ravens’ staff. In addition to their numerous free-agent departures, the Ravens saw an exodus of coaches and front-office personnel. In a way, the exits were a compliment to general manager Eric DeCosta and coach John Harbaugh, who’d helped build one of the NFL’s best regular-season teams in recent memory.
But the losses, particularly on defense, are significant. Besides Macdonald, the Ravens said farewell to associate head coach and defensive line coach Anthony Weaver, who was hired as the Miami Dolphins’ defensive coordinator, and defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson, who was hired as the Tennessee Titans’ defensive coordinator. Both units were impressive all year, and Wilson’s ability to help get the most out of the team’s reserves boosted the Ravens when their secondary depth was tested.
Many of Harbaugh’s other new hires this offseason — notably defensive line coach Dennis Johnson, inside linebackers coach Mark DeLeone and secondary coach Doug Mallory — came from the college level. Like Orr, they might face growing pains at the NFL level.
The Ravens also lost director of player personnel Joe Hortiz after last season. The front office has a good draft record, and Hortiz, who was named the Los Angeles Chargers’ general manager, has been a big part of their success. DeCosta said the Ravens felt his absence during the predraft process. Another top official, director of college scouting David Blackburn, left after the draft, hired by the Washington Commanders as their director of player personnel.
5. Their pass rushers and wide receivers are question marks.
Outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and his 9.5 sacks are gone. Replacing that production will be a group effort for the Ravens and pass rush coach Chuck Smith. They re-signed outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy, who had a career-high nine sacks last season. They brought back defensive lineman Justin Madubuike (team-high 13 sacks) on a lucrative contract extension. They picked up the fifth-year option for outside linebacker Odafe Oweh (five sacks). They drafted outside linebacker Adisa Isaac in the third round. They helped work outside linebacker David Ojabo back to health. And they continued to develop young pieces such as outside linebacker Tavius Robinson and defensive lineman Travis Jones.
If Van Noy and Madubuike repeat what they did last year, if Ojabo and Isaac contribute, and if Oweh finally breaks out, the Ravens can make up for the loss of Clowney, who signed with the Carolina Panthers. But none of that is certain. Isaac dealt with injuries through the entire preseason, and even once he comes back, he’ll be behind schedule. Ojabo began to look explosive at the end of camp, but he could prove inconsistent — or get hurt again. Van Noy is 33; there’s no guaranteeing his trajectory will continue upward. Madubuike might not replicate his 2023 production, which was a 7.5-sack jump from his 2022 production. And Oweh’s game may not click the way the Ravens are hoping.
There’s similar angst over the Ravens’ wide receivers, who struggled to get open against the Chiefs in last season’s AFC championship game. Top wideout Zay Flowers had a record-breaking rookie season, but his upside will be limited if he can’t emerge as a reliable downfield target. Rashod Bateman is still developing chemistry with Jackson, and injuries have been a persistent problem for the 2021 first-round pick. Nelson Agholor is 31 and hasn’t topped 500 receiving yards in a season since 2020.
The Ravens’ depth beyond their top three — Tylan Wallace, Deonte Harty and rookie Devontez Walker — is largely unproven, too. Wallace and Harty, more valued for their special teams contributions, combined for 161 receiving yards last season. Walker, a speedy fourth-round pick, didn’t have a great camp or preseason.
6. Derrick Henry is old for a running back. Very old.
Henry turned 30 late last season, just as he was finishing a 280-carry campaign for the Titans. Here’s how the last five running backs fared in the season after they rushed at least 280 times at age 30 or older:
- Minnesota Vikings’ Adrian Peterson (2016): 37 carries for 72 yards (1.9 per carry) in three games before tearing his meniscus and suffering a knee sprain
- Chiefs’ Thomas Jones (2010): 245 carries for 896 yards (3.7 per carry) in 16 games
- New York Jets’ Thomas Jones (2009): 331 carries for 1,402 yards (4.2 per carry) in 16 games
- Atlanta Falcons’ Warrick Dunn (2007): 227 carries for 720 yards (3.2 per carry)
- New York Giants’ Tiki Barber (2006): 327 carries for 1,662 yards (5.1 per carry) before retiring after the season
- Jets’ Curtis Martin (2005): 220 carries for 735 yards (3.3 per carry) before missing the 2006 season with a knee injury and retiring
At Henry’s introductory news conference, DeCosta called him “kind of a unicorn, to be honest, [with] his combination of speed, power, durability.” But at some point every running back reaches the age cliff. In 2021, Pro Football Focus found that they tend to plateau after reaching 1,500 career carries. Henry hit that mark two years ago.
7. Their schedule could be another nightmare.
An optimistic Ravens fan might say the team’s schedule is easier than it was last season, when it rated as the NFL’s fifth hardest, according to FTN.
A pessimistic Ravens fan might say, no, actually, the schedule is still brutal. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Ravens have the league’s fourth-hardest slate in 2024. And strength of schedule does matter. Just four of the teams with a top-17 schedule last season advanced to the postseason, the analytics site found.
The Ravens’ trouble could start close to home, with the AFC North projected to be perhaps the NFL’s strongest division. The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, playoff teams a year ago, could again have elite defenses. The Cincinnati Bengals, with quarterback Joe Burrow back, could have an elite offense and a solid defense. If Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson or Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson — or Justin Fields — finds his footing, the Ravens could easily be overtaken in the division.
The Ravens are otherwise saddled with the challenges of a first-place schedule: road games against the Chiefs, defending NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys, AFC South champion Houston Texans and NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and home games against the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills and talented Philadelphia Eagles.
8. Last year’s luck with opposing quarterbacks will probably fade.
The Ravens created a lot of their own luck on defense last year. They were fast, physical and well coached. They also benefited from others’ misfortune.
Just look at some of the quarterbacks they faced (or missed) last season:
- Week 1 (Texans): C.J. Stroud was making his first career start.
- Week 2 (Bengals): Burrow was limited by a calf injury.
- Week 3 (Indianapolis Colts): Starter Anthony Richardson was ruled out because of a concussion. The Ravens still lost to Gardner Minshew.
- Week 4 (Browns): Watson was ruled out because of a shoulder injury. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson didn’t find out he was starting until hours before kickoff.
- Week 6 (Titans): Ryan Tannehill was knocked out of the game in the third quarter with an ankle injury.
- Week 8 (Arizona Cardinals): With Kyler Murray recovering from the torn ACL he suffered in 2022, backup Joshua Dobbs started.
- Week 10 (Browns): Watson played through a severe ankle injury and a broken bone in his right (throwing) shoulder, which ultimately required season-ending surgery. The Ravens still lost.
- Week 11 (Bengals): Burrow was knocked out of the game in the second quarter with a wrist injury that later required season-ending surgery.
- Week 15 (Jacksonville Jaguars): Trevor Lawrence entered the concussion protocol after the game. Coach Doug Pederson speculated that Lawrence might’ve hurt his head with about five minutes left in the game, when the Ravens were already well in control. But his head also appeared to bounce off the ground after a hard third-quarter hit by Madubuike.
- Week 16 (San Francisco 49ers): Brock Purdy was knocked out of the game in the fourth quarter with a shoulder stinger. The Ravens were leading by 19 points at that point.
9. Their turnover differential and red-zone success aren’t sustainable.
The Ravens tied with the Giants for the league lead in turnover differential last season (plus-13). That doesn’t mean much for 2024.
Sure, it helps to have a quarterback like Jackson, who tied a career low last season with a 1.5% interception rate. But turnovers are largely random. A 2014 study in the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective found that over half of the variance in a team’s season-to-season turnover differential appeared related to luck. And turnovers account for much of a team’s success in the NFL.
Even if the Ravens have one of the NFL’s best defenses this season, they probably won’t lead the NFL in takeaways again. Before finishing with 31 last season, they had 25 in 2022, 22 in 2020 and 25 in 2019, all years when their defense was one of the NFL’s best.
A 2014 study in the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective found that over half of the variance in a team’s season-to-season turnover differential appeared related to luck.
Regression could come for them in the red zone, too. The Ravens were fourth in the NFL in offensive success rate inside the 20-yard line last season, according to TruMedia, an efficiency that could be difficult to sustain with their reworked offensive line.
On defense, the Ravens ranked second in success rate in the red zone in 2023. Forcing five turnovers inside the 20 again will be a challenge. Maintaining their elite run defense will be, too. On run plays outside the red zone last season, the Ravens were below average in average yards allowed before contact per carry. Inside the 20, no one set a stingier line of scrimmage.
10. There are real injury risks on their defense.
The Ravens have one of the NFL’s most talented defenses. But how reliably healthy are their stars?
Safety Kyle Hamilton is maybe the defense’s most important player; its on- and off-field splits with him last season were night-and-day different. But, over his three years at Notre Dame and first two years in Baltimore, Hamilton has accumulated a handful of minor injuries that could leave him more vulnerable to further wear and tear: a sprained ankle in 2020, a knee fat pad impingement in 2021, another minor knee injury in 2022, a minor knee sprain last year and a seemingly minor hip injury last week.
Fellow safety Marcus Williams, who never missed more than two games in any of his five seasons with the New Orleans Saints, has played just 21 games over his first two seasons in Baltimore. A wrist injury limited him to 10 games in 2022, and he played through a pectoral injury for most of his 11 games last season.
Cornerback Marlon Humphrey missed a career-high seven games last year because of foot and calf injuries. In 2021, he missed the final month of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Over his first four seasons in Baltimore, he sat out just three games total.
The Ravens are maybe most injury-prone at their least proven position: outside linebacker. Oweh missed four games last year with an ankle injury. Ojabo missed most of his first two seasons while he recovered from Achilles tendon and knee injuries. Isaac missed most of the Ravens’ preseason and camp work because of the recurring hamstring issue. And Van Noy, while durable over his long career, could run into trouble at age 33.
