Across the country, NFC team after NFC team sealed its playoff fate Sunday, with three teams clinching and three eliminating themselves. But, until the final hours of Sunday football, no AFC teams had secured a spot.
Then, at 11:26 p.m., the Ravens completed a 23-7 win over an AFC opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars. They became the first AFC team to clinch a postseason berth.
However, the battle is far from over for the Ravens. They don’t just want to get into the playoffs; they want to head in with the division title and the conference’s top seed in hand.
“[I] love being in the playoffs, but that’s part of it,” inside linebacker Roquan Smith said. “We’re not done.”
Getting the first-round bye became even more critical after the Ravens suffered a series of injuries Sunday. The opportunity to rest, heal and stay at home is enticing.
With three weeks to go, here’s how the race for the AFC is looking. Playoff odds are approximations based on The New York Times’ simulator.
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AFC East: Miami Dolphins (10-4)
Playoff berth: 99%
Division title: 77%
First-round bye: 15%
Remaining schedule: Dallas Cowboys (10-3), Ravens (11-3), Buffalo Bills (7-7)
After a fourth-quarter collapse against the Tennessee Titans, leading to a one-point loss, the Dolphins stormed back with a 30-point shutout over the New York Jets. Although the Jets aren’t the most formidable opponent, the Dolphins won without star receiver Tyreek Hill. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for 224 yards. A bunch of players, including Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle, showed this team can be dangerous in multiple ways.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
Playoff berth: 100%
Division title: 95%
First-round bye: 74%
Remaining schedule: San Francisco 49ers (10-3), Miami Dolphins (10-4), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)
The Ravens have clinched a spot in the playoffs. Now the question is what that spot will be. There is still a scenario in which they could lose the AFC and the division. If the Ravens win just one more game and not the game against the Steelers, and the Cleveland Browns win out, the Browns would win the AFC North. Both would have 12 wins, but the Browns would have more division wins. However, the Ravens won’t have to worry about that if they lock this up with two more wins.
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars
Playoff berth: 82%
Division title: 63%
First-round bye: <1%
Remaining schedule: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7), Carolina Panthers (2-12), Tennessee Titans (5-9)
The Jaguars were solidly in the lead of their division to start the season. And then suddenly the others started winning while the Jaguars started losing. Two of the first three losses were to teams at the top of their conferences, the Chiefs and the 49ers. But now the Jaguars have lost three in a row, all to AFC teams. Suddenly, their chances don’t look so good. They still have a good chance of making the playoffs, but their odds of winning a division title have dropped 11 percentage points. They’re also tied with the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts at 8-6.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
Playoff berth: >99%
Division title: 99%
First-round bye: 21%
Remaining opponents: Las Vegas Raiders (6-8), Cincinnati Bengals (8-6), Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)
The Chiefs played another sloppy game, but for the first time in two weeks they overcame their mistakes to win. The New England Patriots were a weaker opponent than the two they lost to, the Green Bay Packers and the Buffalo Bills, but the Chiefs played with more energy and some desperation. Their lead in the AFC West had shrunk to one game over the Broncos, but with their victory Sunday, they boosted their chances of winning their division to 99%. They also knocked the Patriots out of playoff contention.
