Between his preparation for Sunday’s regular-season finale in Cincinnati and his treatment for a sore right shoulder and the constant stream of Damar Hamlin-related updates, Ravens quarterback Tyler Huntley had a busy week.

So busy, in fact, that the news of the Ravens’ new path to a potential home playoff game, announced late Thursday night, hadn’t yet sunk in by Friday afternoon.

“I really haven’t been following it, but everybody has been talking about it and stuff,” Huntley said. “I think it’s crazy. It’s like ‘Friday Night Lights,’ when they had to flip the coin. ... It’s kind of crazy. But God willing, when we win, that’ll put everything in the process, and it’ll take care of everything else.”

With quarterback Lamar Jackson still sidelined by a knee injury, the Ravens (10-6) are long shots to return to Baltimore in the postseason. They’d first need to beat the Bengals (11-4), who’ve won seven straight games and haven’t lost at home since the season opener. Then, should the Ravens get a rematch with Cincinnati in the AFC’s wild-card round next weekend, they’d need to win a coin toss determining the game’s venue.

The Baltimore Banner thanks its sponsors. Become one.

Around their locker room, Ravens players weren’t interested in looking ahead, not after a dispiriting Sunday night loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The newly crowned AFC North champion Bengals were up next. Here’s what to watch in the teams’ Week 18 matchup.

Offense

1. When the Ravens faced Cincinnati in Week 5, they put them away with their running game. Jackson and running back Kenyan Drake combined for 42 rushing yards on the offense’s final drive, setting up kicker Justin Tucker for a game-winning 43-yard field goal as time expired. Overall, the Ravens finished with 150 rushing yards (5.8 per carry) on designed runs in the 19-17 win.

Three months later, two personnel changes have reshaped the matchup: The Ravens won’t have Jackson, one of the NFL’s best runners. And the Bengals will have defensive tackle D.J. Reader, one of the NFL’s best run stoppers.

Without the 348-pound Reader on the field — he missed nearly two months after suffering a knee injury in Week 3 — Cincinnati’s rushing defense is one of the NFL’s worst. According to TruMedia, the Bengals are 24th in yards per carry allowed (4.6), 28th in average yards allowed before contact (1.9) and 31st in run success rate (55.3%) when Reader’s not playing. (A defense’s run success rate is measured by how often it stops an offense from gaining at least 40% of the yards to go on first down, 60% of the yards to go on second down, and 100% of the yards to go on third or fourth down.)

When Reader is on the field, though, the Bengals are nearly impenetrable: third in yards per carry allowed (3.5), sixth in average yards allowed before contact (1.3) and second in run success rate (67.4%). After rushing for 101 yards (4.4 per carry) in a Week 8 win over the Reader-less Bengals, Cleveland Browns star running back Nick Chubb finished with 14 carries for 34 yards (2.4 per attempt) in their Week 14 rematch.

The Baltimore Banner thanks its sponsors. Become one.

View post on X

Reader “didn’t play in our first game — we’re well aware of that — and he’s a really good player,” offensive coordinator Greg Roman said Thursday. “He’s a 350-pound run stopper, knows how to play the run, knows how to take on blocks, knows how to get off blocks, recognizes run schemes really well. So that’s going to be a challenge, and our O-linemen are keyed into that, for sure.”

2. In the aftermath of Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh, coach John Harbaugh criticized the team’s coaching. “Not good enough,” he said, taking accountability for the staff’s shortcomings. A day later, when he was asked to elaborate on the coaching issues, Harbaugh was still frustrated.

“We didn’t do a good job of attacking the commitment they made to stopping the run, probably, on offense,” he said.

The Steelers had all but dared the Ravens to pass deep, often lining up in six-man fronts that left just one safety deep. According to TruMedia, Huntley saw “Cover 1″ (man-to-man coverage with one safety in zone coverage) and “Cover 3″ (three deep zones, four shallow zones) looks on 21 of his 24 drop-backs.

But Huntley couldn’t or wouldn’t look long. He threw just three passes of at least 15 air yards, one of which came late in the fourth quarter, a desperate heave that ended in safety Minkah Fitzpatrick’s arms.

The Baltimore Banner thanks its sponsors. Become one.

View post on X

Asked Thursday about Harbaugh’s critique, Roman acknowledged that the Ravens could’ve passed more, only to then lament the team’s squandered opportunities on the ground. “When you watch the film, there were some plays there, and we just have to make those plays, make those blocks, et cetera,” he said.

If the Bengals don’t fear the Ravens’ depleted receiving corps — or the threat that Huntley and backup Anthony Brown pose on downfield shots — running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards could see a lot more crowded boxes Sunday.

Defense

3. If the Bengals and quarterback Joe Burrow took away anything from their Week 5 loss in Baltimore, it might have been a realization that something with their passing attack had to change.

Over the first month of the season, Burrow struggled against defensive structures with two high safeties in coverage, which are designed to concede space underneath but limit big-play opportunities downfield. From Week 1 to Week 5, Burrow averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt, threw one touchdown and five interceptions and averaged a woeful minus-0.16 expected points added per drop-back against two-high coverage shells, according to TruMedia. (EPA is a measure of efficiency that accounts for situational factors such as down, distance and field position.)

Against the Ravens, he saw a mix of “Cover 2″ (two deep zones, five shallow zones), “Cover 4″ (four deep zones, three shallow zones), “Cover 6″ (a hybrid that can develop into three deep zones) and “Cover 2 Man” (man-to-man coverage with two deep zones) looks. Burrow was accurate (15-for-22) but far from productive (131 yards, one touchdown, one interception and two sacks taken). He finished the night averaging minus-0.26 EPA per drop-back against two-high shells.

The Baltimore Banner thanks its sponsors. Become one.

Those struggles are now seemingly a thing of the past. Since Week 6, Burrow has averaged 8.0 yards per attempt, thrown seven touchdowns and three interceptions and posted 0.26 EPA per drop-back against two-deep coverages, the NFL’s sixth-best mark in that span. A more cohesive offensive line has helped, but so has a willingness to take what defenses give him; Bengals running backs are averaging 52.7 receiving yards per game since Week 6, second most in the NFL.

View post on X

“In terms of how to stop the offense, there are not many answers,” Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald said Thursday. “It definitely has to be complementary [on the] front and back. You’re trying to deny the ball, and then when [Burrow] does get the ball out so fast, you’ve got to eliminate those hidden yardages and be able to stop the run in different front structures and secondary structures. … I’m not sure about their trend over the course of the year, but they’re definitely playing well right now.”

4. Harbaugh said Friday that the Ravens “would play this thing for short-term and long-term considerations.” He wanted to win Sunday, but he also wanted to be as prepared as possible for the playoffs.

Cornerback Marcus Peters’ playing time could be a useful gauge of where those interests stand. In the teams’ first meeting, Peters and Marlon Humphrey played every defensive snap, helping hold Bengals wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd to 10 catches on 16 targets for 82 yards. (Fellow starter Tee Higgins played just 10 offensive snaps and was not targeted before leaving the game with an ankle injury.)

With Peters expected to play for the first time since a Week 15 calf injury, and a rematch with the Bengals in the postseason likely, Harbaugh could play it safe and deploy Peters situationally. Defensive back Brandon Stephens, who struggled mightily through the season’s first three months, held up well in Peters’ place the past two weeks. He allowed just three catches on four targets for 30 yards against the Atlanta Falcons and five catches on 10 targets for 58 yards against the Steelers, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Baltimore Banner thanks its sponsors. Become one.

If Humphrey and Stephens remain the Ravens’ primary outside cornerbacks, matching up Sunday with Chase and Higgins, rookie safety Kyle Hamilton could spend most of the night lined up over Boyd. That wouldn’t be an easy assignment; Boyd is tied for fifth in the NFL in receiving yards out of the slot, according to TruMedia. Against zone coverage, which the Ravens used heavily in Week 5, Boyd has a stellar 85.4% catch rate as a slot receiver — and converts over two-thirds of those catches into first downs.

Extra points

5. As of Saturday afternoon, the Ravens were nine-point underdogs against Cincinnati on the DraftKings Sportsbook. According to Odds Shark’s betting database, the Ravens were last double-digit underdogs in their thrice-delayed Week 12 game against Pittsburgh in 2020.

Despite missing nine starters and seven Pro Bowl players, including Jackson, amid a coronavirus outbreak entering that game, the Ravens put a scare into the then-unbeaten Steelers, falling on the road, 19-14, as 10 1/2-point underdogs.

6. Even if the Ravens win Sunday, they’d likely be rooting for another result to go their way. If the Denver Broncos (4-12) also upset the Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) — in a game that kicks off in the late-afternoon window — the Ravens would jump from the AFC’s No. 6 seed to the No. 5 seed. That would eliminate the need for a coin toss with Cincinnati, as the Ravens would instead travel to the home of the AFC South champions. Atop that division are the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) and Tennessee Titans (7-9), who face off Saturday night in a winner-take-all matchup.

jonas.shaffer@thebaltimorebanner.com