The Ravens did what they had to over the first three quarters of Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys: Run the damn ball, over and over.
Then, in the fourth quarter, they did what they couldn’t afford to: Give up one big play after another.
Ultimately, running back Derrick Henry’s big day won out over the secondary’s bad day. The Ravens left AT&T Stadium with a 28-25 win and a sigh of relief.
“We needed it,” outside linebacker Odafe Oweh said. “We weren’t trying to go 0-3. We weren’t going to let that happen, and now we have some good momentum going against another ‘big dawg.’”
The Buffalo Bills, who will enter their “Sunday Night Football” showdown in Baltimore with a 3-0 record and the NFL’s best point differential, might be the biggest beasts in the NFL. They have the early front-runner for Most Valuable Player honors, quarterback Josh Allen, and a defense ranked among the league’s best.
All of which makes the Bills a perfect litmus test for the Ravens’ development on offense and defense. The Ravens probably won’t rush for 274 yards again — but Buffalo won’t discourage a ground-and-pound approach. The Ravens probably won’t allow 379 passing yards again, either — but the Bills have the passing offense to stress them all night.
Here’s a look at how the Ravens’ Week 3 ups and downs could translate to Week 4.
With the Ravens on offense
There might not be an NFL run defense more philosophically opposed to the Cowboys’ Week 3 approach than the Bills’. And that could be a good thing for the Ravens.
On Sunday, the Ravens lined up in two-wide-receiver sets on 30 of their 40 designed-run plays, according to TruMedia, largely forsaking spread looks. The Cowboys, wanting to match their size up front, responded by using “base” personnel (only four defensive backs, leaving three linebackers on the field) on 24 plays. On the Ravens’ six other run plays with heavy formations, Dallas lined up in “nickel” personnel (five defensive backs, two linebackers).
If defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer expected a fairer fight up front, he didn’t get it. The Ravens’ ground game was stronger up the middle and faster out wide. When running out of their two-back and two-tight-end formations, the Ravens had 30 carries for 183 yards and two touchdowns, according to TruMedia. Henry alone had 18 carries for 110 yards and a score against one of the NFL’s worst run defenses.
“To be able to run the ball — we call it ‘must-run’ — when you really want to run the ball and do it out of big groups and protect the edges and all that, that’s something that’s in our DNA a little bit,” coach John Harbaugh said Monday. “Been that way a long time. We definitely want to live in that world if we can.”
The Bills, however, want to live in their own world on defense. Buffalo has faced 42 designed runs against heavy-personnel sets this season — and used base personnel, ostensibly a better matchup when it comes to matching power for power, on exactly none of them. Relying exclusively on five-DB groupings, the Bills have allowed just 143 rushing yards (3.4 per carry) and posted an impressive 61.9% success rate against two-back and multiple-tight-end runs.
Buffalo’s stingy run defense is all the more remarkable because of its extensive injury toll. Linebacker Matt Milano, an All-Pro in 2022, tore his biceps in August and hasn’t played this season. Linebacker Terrel Bernard, who led the Bills in tackles last season, strained a pectoral muscle in Week 2 and won’t play Sunday. Cornerback Taron Johnson, whose physicality in the slot has long keyed Buffalo’s defensive flexibility, will also miss Week 4 with a forearm injury he suffered in Week 1.
How Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken attacks the second level of the Bills’ defense will be one of the game’s more important subplots. Can the Ravens’ offensive line get enough push against a talented Bills defensive front to support another Henry-heavy workload? Will quarterback Lamar Jackson pepper tight ends Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews with targets over the middle after a quiet Week 3? Can the Ravens force Buffalo into base personnel?
More responsibility than ever will fall to Jackson, who’s struggled against Bills coach Sean McDermott’s nickel-heavy defenses over his career. In three starts, including the playoffs, Jackson is 1-2 and has averaged minus-0.22 expected points added per play, a well-below-average efficiency level. As a passer, he’s averaged 150.3 yards per game, thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions and taken six sacks. As a rusher, he’s averaged 49 yards per game and hasn’t scored a touchdown.
With the Ravens on defense
The Ravens entered this season with perhaps the NFL’s most impressive defensive spine. Three All-Pro selections — defensive lineman Justin Madubuike, inside linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton — were returning. Safety Marcus Williams was healthy again. Defensive lineman Travis Jones and inside linebacker Trenton Simpson were ascendant talents.
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Their play so far has been a mixed bag, the highs extremely high and the lows surprisingly low. The good: an NFL-best run defense that ranks first in yards per carry allowed (2.8), yards per game allowed (50) and success rate (75%) and fifth in average yards before contact per rush (0.91), according to TruMedia. The Ravens have allowed just one carry for more than 8 yards all season, and it came on a trick play.
The bad: a disastrous middle-of-the-field pass defense. Last year, the Ravens ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA per attempt on passes between the numbers. This year, they rank 27th.
Opposing quarterbacks have attacked the Ravens’ spine relentlessly this month. In Week 1, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes went 14-for-17 for 201 yards and an interception on throws between the numbers, tied for the sixth-most passing yardage over the middle in a game this season. On Sunday, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott finished 17-for-26 for 263 yards and a touchdown when targeting the area, the most such yardage in a game this season. Even Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Gardner Minshew went 15-for-17 for 119 yards and a touchdown over the middle in Week 2.
Tight end coverage has been a persistent, and surprising, problem. In 2023, the Ravens allowed 804 passing yards overall (47.3 per game) to the position, 12th fewest in the NFL. This year, opposing tight ends have racked up 280 yards, or 93.3 yards per game, the second most allowed by any defense.
On Sunday, Prescott connected on four explosive pass plays to tight end Jake Ferguson, who led all receivers with six catches for 95 yards. Smith was a step slow or a foot out of place on three of them; he couldn’t get deep enough in his zone drop to deter one throw, allowed a back-shoulder completion down the seam on another and missed a tackle in space on the third. Williams, who’s graded out as one of the NFL’s worst safeties in coverage this season, according to Pro Football Focus, gave up the other big gain over the middle.
“The easiest place to complete passes is in the middle of the field,” Harbaugh said Monday. “You have to get between the quarterback and the football, and we’re not doing a good job of that. It has to stop. We have to put a stop to it.”
And Bills quarterback Josh Allen does not profile as a get-right patsy. He leads the NFL in EPA per attempt on throws between the numbers, completing 26 of 30 passes for 279 yards and four touchdowns. Slot receiver Khalil Shakir has caught all 14 of his overall targets for a team-high 168 yards and two touchdowns, while tight end Dalton Kincaid has eight catches on 11 targets for 85 yards and a touchdown.
Just look at Allen’s heat map; the brighter the spot, the better he’s been.
With running back James Cook’s emergence as a reliable receiving option, Buffalo’s creative passing offense can torment linebackers and safeties in coverage. Cook (eight catches for 97 yards and a touchdown) is fast enough to run by second-level defenders, but Allen’s scrambling and improvisational abilities require heightened attention from that same group.
“Whether I’m on the sideline or actually on the field, just seeing him [Allen] run around, making the throws he does, making scramble plays, making guys miss, I mean, doing all this, it’s weirdly not surprising at this point,” Bills tight end Dawson Knox told reporters Monday after Allen passed for 263 yards and four touchdowns in a 47-10 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. “But it’s still fun to be a fan from time to time. Just watch him do what he does and scramble outside the pocket. He’s impressive, man.”
