Seven weeks ago, in the middle of training camp, Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken shared a confession about how the 2023 season had gone. It was a surprising regret.
“We probably just didn’t call it enough,” he said. “We didn’t screen enough last year, didn’t take the pressure off our O-line enough.”
Monken’s remorse was notable not only because of how much more reliant on screen passes (short throws, typically behind the line of scrimmage, to a receiver protected by blockers) his offense had become, but also because of how inefficient the plays were. According to Sports Info Solutions, quarterback Lamar Jackson attempted 58 screen passes in 2023, 30 more than he had in any previous season. But his success rate (the percentage of plays with positive expected points added) was 41.4%, the lowest of his career, and he averaged a disappointing minus-0.20 EPA per screen.
Four games into the 2024 season, though, Monken’s conviction in the Ravens’ screen game has been handsomely rewarded. In their 35-10 win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday night, Jackson went 4-for-4 for 37 yards and averaged 0.91 EPA on screens — almost a point added per play. Overall, Jackson is 16-for-19 for 137 yards on the passes this year, a crucial weapon for an offensive line that has needed a counterpunch against overly aggressive pass rushes. Screens can keep defenses honest on obvious passing downs, turning the space they vacate into opportunities for yards after the catch.
Around the NFL, few screen attacks have been better. Among the 23 quarterbacks who’ve attempted at least 10 screens this season, Jackson ranks fifth in success rate (59.2%) and third in EPA per attempt (0.24), behind only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield and the Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa.
The Ravens’ running back screens have been particularly potent. Justice Hill has five catches on five targets for 56 yards, and Derrick Henry has one catch on two targets for 23 yards.
“We’re executing it better,” coach John Harbaugh said Monday. “We have a better understanding of it. Timing has been better. Just across the board we’re just executing the play at a much higher level than we ever have before. I’m excited about it. There are different types of screens in there, so some nuances here and there that guys are doing a really good job with. I’m proud of the guys. I think the coaches have done a really good job of coaching it, and it’s nice to see, because it’s a valuable thing. It’s really helping us.”
Here’s what else stood out from Sunday’s blowout win:
Under-center shift
Jackson’s never more threatening before the snap than when he’s in the shotgun or pistol formation. That means he’s also never less dangerous than when he’s under center.
And yet the Ravens are leaning into under-center looks with Jackson more than ever before — and finding success.
The Ravens have lined up under center on 15.4% of their early-down plays this season (excluding kneel-downs), according to TruMedia, more than double their rate under Monken last year (7.2%) and more than five percentage points clear of their previous high since Jackson became a full-time starter (10% in 2022).
Sunday’s win was a high-water mark for the Ravens’ more old-school look. They lined up under center 22 times against Buffalo, their most since the NFL’s Next Gen Stats started tracking the data in 2022. The Ravens’ previous high was tied in Week 3, when they had 21 under-center plays in their win over the Dallas Cowboys.
“I like what Coach [Monken] was doing tonight,” Jackson said Sunday. “He kept the defense honest. We were going to ‘gun,’ being under center in [the] play-action game, the run game. We’re just good across the board.”
The Ravens have been far more dangerous in the pistol and shotgun (7.9 yards per play, 49% success rate, 16.6% explosive-play rate) than under center (5.3 yards per play, 44.8% success rate, 9.1% explosive-play rate) this season, but the changeup has generated easy looks in the passing game.
Jackson is 9-for-12 for 116 yards and a touchdown on under-center drop-backs this season (excluding spikes), according to SIS, and he’s perhaps unlucky to have missed any throws at all. One was batted at the line of scrimmage, another was dropped Sunday by tight end Mark Andrews, and another was nearly completed Sunday on a sliding attempt by tight end Isaiah Likely.
Unsurprisingly, the Ravens have leaned into their run threat. All but one of Jackson’s under-center passes have used play-action, and even that one had the look of a run. It came at the start of the second quarter against Buffalo, with the Ravens 5 yards from the end zone. Jackson, who would finish 3-for-5 for 41 yards on under-center drop-backs, rolled to his right as in-motion fullback Patrick Ricard and the offensive line bluffed a run block to the left. With the Bills’ defense outleveraged, Jackson hit Henry for an easy touchdown pass in the right flat.
Manning up
One month into defensive coordinator Zach Orr’s first season as a play caller, a subtle distinction between him and his predecessor has emerged: Orr’s willingness to play man-to-man coverage.
Over Mike Macdonald’s two seasons in Baltimore, he called man coverage on 22.6% and 25.9% of opponents’ pass plays, according to Pro Football Focus. In 2022, that rate ranked 20th in the NFL; in 2023, 13th.
This season, the Ravens have turned to man-to-man on 29.8% of pass plays, the league’s 10th-highest rate. So far, so good: The Ravens rank seventh in EPA per man coverage drop-back (0.13), 13th in success rate (60.4%) and 16th in yards per play (5.6), according to TruMedia.
Their execution Sunday was especially impressive. Over the Bills’ first three games, quarterback Josh Allen had torn man coverage apart. He went 19-for-29 (65.5%) for 276 yards, six touchdowns and zero interceptions, taking just one sack and averaging 0.80 EPA per drop-back, second highest in the NFL, according to TruMedia.
Against the Ravens, Allen did not see man-to-man coverage often — just seven of his 34 drop-backs (20.5%) — but he struggled when he did. Hounded by the Ravens’ pass rush, even four-man pressure packages, Allen went just 3-for-7 for 11 yards and one first down, averaging a woeful minus-0.85 EPA per drop-back.
“I’ve always really felt like we were going to be a really good man-cover team going into the season,” Harbaugh said Monday. The Bills “were really hurting people with the crossing routes. Josh is so accurate throwing those things in there. Our guys were on them. There were a couple of contested catches. Everything was contested, really, except the scramble play late [from Allen to wide receiver Khalil Shakir]. …
“I thought Brandon [Stephens] was really good. I thought Nate [Wiggins] really made ... the things that [he] needed to do better from one week to the next, he did them. He fixed them. Marlon [Humphrey] was all over people out there. Our safeties covered well. It’s good to feel like you can have confidence in playing man coverage.”