That Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will meet again Sunday night as two of the NFL’s best quarterbacks is not a surprise. That only one defense has seemed capable of stopping them, however, definitely is.
The Ravens (1-2) enter Week 4 in good health and with impressive continuity from last year’s elite defense — and yet they rank last in the NFL in pass defense and 20th in overall success rate, according to TruMedia. The Buffalo Bills (3-0) are down three key starters (injured linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and slot cornerback Taron Johnson) and lost several others this past offseason — and yet they rank eighth in both pass defense and success rate.
“They’re a chemistry defense,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said Monday. “They play together really well. First of all, they have a really good team, and they have a lot of depth. They’ve done a great job; [Bills general manager] Brandon Beane and [coach] Sean McDermott have done a great job building that team. They drafted well, and they have a lot of good young players. They can bring guys in, and they play at a high level. They’re put together really well.”
The Ravens’ hopes of knocking off the Bills on “Sunday Night Football” could depend on their highly decorated quarterback and their once-hyped secondary. They need to get another big game from Jackson, the NFL’s reigning Most Valuable Player, and to avoid another bad game from their pass defense. Here’s what to watch in their Week 4 matchup at M&T Bank Stadium.
1. Through three weeks, the Bills’ passing attack has been the NFL’s best unit — and Allen the NFL’s best quarterback.
According to FTN, Buffalo leads the league in passing efficiency with a DVOA of 98.3%, which means it’s 98.3% better than the NFL’s average passing offense — or almost twice as good. The Ravens rank third in passing DVOA and are still almost 50 percentage points behind the Bills (49.6%).
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Despite the high-profile offseason departure of wide receiver Stefon Diggs, Allen has been close to unstoppable this season. He’s completing a career-high 75% of his passes for a career-high 8.8 yards per attempt and seven touchdowns. And, a year after throwing 18 interceptions, second most in the NFL, and losing four fumbles, Allen has just one giveaway, a Week 1 fumble.
Even if the Ravens’ pass rush can overwhelm a stellar Bills offensive line, Allen has proven largely impervious to pressure. He has been sacked just twice this season, both times in Week 1. Just 6.9% of opponents’ pressures have been converted into sacks, according to Pro Football Focus, an extraordinary outlier. The lowest full-season pressure-to-sack rate for a qualifying quarterback over the past decade was 8.1%, posted by Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers in 2017.
Outside the pocket, Allen has 10 scrambles for 69 yards, according to TruMedia. Outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy compared the challenge of stopping Allen in the open field to stopping Ravens running back Derrick Henry.
“If somebody misses a block, he can escape out of a sack,” safety Kyle Hamilton said Wednesday. “It doesn’t matter who’s rushing him. He can escape a DB or a D-lineman and then roll to his left and fire the ball 60 yards downfield on a rope. That’s obviously impressive, and in addition to that, the confidence he plays with … is contagious for that team. It’s impressive to watch. He’s a good player.”
2. When the Bills traded Diggs in April to the Houston Texans, Allen lost a big-name target but not his favorite target. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir could be as dangerous as the star wideouts who have torched the Ravens this season.
Over the second half of last season, Shakir caught 25 of his 30 targets (83.3%), the highest catch rate for any wide receiver with at least 20 targets in that span, according to TruMedia. This year, somehow, the 2022 fifth-round pick has been even better: 14 targets, 14 catches, 168 yards and two touchdowns. With Shakir averaging an absurd 1.51 expected points added per target — tight end Isaiah Likely leads the Ravens in 0.41 EPA per target — a four-target game for Shakir is worth about an extra touchdown in value.
“I think he’s just where he’s supposed to be at in the route concepts, and he makes plays for them,” defensive coordinator Zach Orr said Thursday, recalling an important catch Shakir made in the Bills’ comeback win in Baltimore two years ago. “It’s crazy to see how much his game has grown, but I think that you can say that about their whole receiver corps, man. They’re tough guys. They are where they’re supposed to be at in the route concepts. They make the plays when Josh gives them the opportunity, and then they’re good RAC [run after catch] guys, so we respect those guys. Obviously, we know Shakir is the leading receiver, and you know they’re going to try to find ways to get him the football, so we have to make sure that we’re ready for that.”
Shakir works primarily in the slot, and the Ravens have struggled to defend the middle of the field. But with Buffalo’s unproven options out wide — rookie Keon Coleman has struggled to separate downfield, and Mack Hollins has just three catches despite leading the team in routes run — the Ravens could have cornerback Marlon Humphrey shadow Shakir.
Finally healthy after an up-and-down 2023, Humphrey has been the Ravens’ top defensive back this season. According to PFF, he’s allowed 73 yards in coverage and ranks sixth leaguewide on the analytics site in “lockdown percentage,” which measures how often a defender prevents a receiver from getting open.
3. Safety Marcus Williams’ surprising early-season struggles have come as he’s taken on a different role in the Ravens’ defense.
Williams, who established himself as one of the NFL’s premier center field safeties over five seasons with the New Orleans Saints, has played 41 snaps in the box entering Week 4, according to PFF, putting him on pace to play over 230 snaps there this season. His single-season high is just 108 snaps in the box, defined loosely as the imaginary rectangle that extends about 5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and to the width of the offensive line on every play.
Williams still operates primarily as a deep-lying safety for the Ravens, but he’s surprisingly fared better in coverage elsewhere. According to Sports Info Solutions, he’s allowed four catches on five targets for 80 yards when lined up as a safety. In Williams’ far fewer snaps in the box and the slot, he has yet to be targeted.
“I think that the one thing you don’t want to do as a defense is [to be] where the offense can peg where guys are at,” Orr said. “If they know where guys are going to be at every single time, now they can scheme you up a whole bunch of different ways. Marcus is a talented guy. He’s been doing a heck of a job for us this year, and all our guys in the back end can play in the box, they can play deep, so we let those guys do that.”
The Ravens will need more from Williams, one of PFF’s lowest-graded defensive backs, as they try to curb their big-play habit. In Week 2, he lost control of Las Vegas Raiders rookie tight end Brock Bowers for a 27-yard completion in the red zone. On Sunday, he gave up a 17-yarder to Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson over the middle and was late in coverage other times. Williams also let a would-be interception sail through his hands and appeared to misjudge his coverage responsibilities on a fourth-quarter Cowboys touchdown, though Orr blamed himself for the breakdown.
4. One of Jackson’s most memorable deep throws last year came in prime time, a leaping 26-yard catch by Likely against the Jacksonville Jaguars after a spinning escape in the pocket by his quarterback.
But the bright lights generally didn’t bring out the best in the Ravens’ downfield passing game — Jackson finished just 2-for-12 on passes of at least 20 air yards in those four 2023 games — and the early returns this year have been lacking.
Jackson is 1-for-8 on deep throws this season, according to TruMedia, with the one completion to wide receiver Rashod Bateman coming on a hurry-up play late in the Ravens’ season-opening loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Against Dallas, just one of Jackson’s 15 passes went over 10 yards downfield: his 13-yard touchdown to Bateman late in the second quarter.
“Are we looking to throw the ball down the field like every team?” offensive coordinator Todd Monken said Thursday. “Yes, of course so, but efficiency is big, too. And again, the first two games, we had 33 snaps of 2-minute [offense]. That’s not going to come up [as a downfield option], even though it did to Bate. We did have a play in Kansas City that way, but we’re certainly looking to do that and push it down the field, and when the opportunity arises, we’ll do that.”
The Bills don’t have an elite safety tandem, but with Christian Benford and Rasul Douglas starring at cornerback, they’ve been airtight in their downfield coverage. Buffalo’s rate of explosive pass plays allowed is tied for the NFL’s second best, and opponents have completed just one of their 11 deep passes, tied for the fewest in the league.
5. Left guard Andrew Vorhees’ ankle injury could lead to some offensive line shuffling Sunday — and perhaps clarity on the Ravens’ pecking order up front.
If Vorhees, who missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, is unavailable against Buffalo, the chain reaction could be significant. In a more complicated scenario, the Ravens could move starting right tackle Patrick Mekari to left guard, where he’s played just 10 snaps over his career. Rookie Roger Rosengarten, who didn’t play against Dallas, would then be in line to make his first career start, tasked with containing Bills defensive end Von Miller, who’s averaging a sack every 21.3 pass rush snaps.
The less complicated scenario involves a guard-for-guard swap. But would the Ravens prefer Ben Cleveland, who last lined up extensively at left guard as a rookie, or Josh Jones, who played 63 snaps there last season for the Houston Texans? It’s unclear whether either has earned Harbaugh’s trust.
Whoever starts will face a defensive line much tougher than the Cowboys’. Ed Oliver had 9.5 sacks last year, and fellow tackle DaQuan Jones ranks among the top 10 interior linemen in both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate this season, according to ESPN. Defensive ends A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau and Oliver are dangerous on stunts and twists and can set the edge against the run.
“They do a great job mixing up the front with it and subtle, little things that make it difficult,” Monken said. “You think you’re going to get a big run, and then a vacuum sucks it in. All of a sudden, it’s a 4-yard gain, it’s a 5-yard gain.”
