In Owings Mills and Orchard Park, New York, the superstars seemed to be reading from slightly different scripts Wednesday. The best matchup of the NFL playoffs was fast approaching. Each quarterback saw it differently.
Said the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson: “There’s no problem or nothing like that, but we’re competing with each other. I’m trying to beat you. I’m not trying to be your friend.”
Said the Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen: “In the history of football, I’ve never really played against another quarterback. I’ve played against their defense.”
Believe it or not, the narrative for Sunday’s AFC divisional-round game at Highmark Stadium is as unavoidable as it is irresistible: Jackson versus Allen, the generals of the league’s two best offenses, the favorites for Most Valuable Player honors, fighting for a berth in the AFC championship game.
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Allen’s Bills won their only playoff meeting four years ago, and Jackson’s Ravens cruised in their Week 4 game in Baltimore, but recent history matters only so much. Here’s what to watch in the third-seeded Ravens’ showdown with the second-seeded Bills. (All stats reflect regular-season totals unless otherwise noted.)
1. Bills coach Sean McDermott joked Monday that it would help to have five 300-pound linebackers available to stop Ravens running back Derrick Henry. His options in Buffalo’s second level are considerably smaller.
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Starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are listed at 223 pounds and 224 pounds, respectively, weights that rank in the third and fourth percentile of all draftable off-ball-linebacker prospects, according to MockDraftable. Slot cornerback Taron Johnson, who along with Milano and Bernard missed the Week 4 loss, is 192 pounds, which ranks in the 47th percentile among cornerback prospects.
Henry, at 247 pounds, is in a whole different weight class. The Ravens are expected to press that size advantage Sunday. Buffalo plays almost exclusively with five or six defensive backs on the field. The Ravens, who will likely be without injured wide receiver Zay Flowers, have the personnel to overwhelm smaller defenses. Fullback Patrick Ricard is 300 pounds, tight end Charlie Kolar is 267, and fellow tight ends Mark Andrews (250) and Isaiah Likely (247) can knock back smaller players in space. When lined up in 22 personnel (two backs, two tight ends and one wide receiver) this season, the Ravens averaged 6.3 yards per carry, according to TruMedia.
“This is a unique offense in terms of their production and how explosive they are,” McDermott said Wednesday. “It’s a great combination, unlike any I’ve seen, with Lamar and Derrick Henry.”
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Milano, an All-Pro selection in 2022 whose uneven play has stabilized in recent weeks, is a three-down presence. So, too, are Bernard, who led the team in tackles in 2023, and Johnson, an All-Pro pick last season and dogged run defender.
Well, Johnson is a three-down presence at least theoretically. There are exceptions. When the Bills faced the Detroit Lions in Week 15, Johnson came off the field for six plays. Five were six-lineman formations from Detroit, and the other was a three-tight-end grouping. The Lions scored two touchdowns (a 1-yard run and a 9-yard pass). They also had an 18-yard completion, a 9-yard run and two carries stopped for no gain.
The Ravens could strong-arm Johnson off the field at times, too. They already did that to his Week 4 replacement, safety Cam Lewis; the Bills played more snaps in base personnel (four defensive backs) that game than they had in any other since 2022. But Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken isn’t expecting anything drastic.
“Their structure is going to stay the same … [and] how they’re going to play it,” Monken said Thursday. “And we’re excited to get after it Sunday night.”
2. Sunday’s game could hinge on offensive line play — and not just the usual starting fives.
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Buffalo ran 148 plays this season with six offensive linemen on the field, almost twice as many as the second-place Tennessee Titans did (82). The Ravens, who called just 23 plays with “jumbo” personnel during the regular season, used it 16 times in Saturday’s wild-card-round win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Bills use reserve offensive lineman Alec Anderson as a 305-pound chess piece, sending him in motion as a quasi-fullback, lining him up as a detached tight end and inserting him wherever he’s needed in pass protection. They averaged 5 yards per carry with their six-lineman formations, and their three longest runs this season — 46-, 49- and 65-yard touchdowns by running back James Cook — came out of the look. Allen also averaged an elite 0.25 expected points added per drop-back in jumbo personnel, completing 63.9% of his passes and averaging 9.4 yards per attempt.
The Ravens have the size up front to stop Buffalo’s bully ball game and perhaps inflict some of their own. Their defense allowed just 1.3 yards per carry on the 29 six-lineman looks they saw this season, though the Bills’ two such carries in Week 4 did go for 11 yards. And against a physical Pittsburgh front on Saturday, the Ravens had 15 carries for 72 yards (4.8 per carry) and five first downs when inserting reserve linemen Josh Jones (15 total offensive snaps) or Ben Cleveland (one total snap).
“As you get further into the season and you want to be able to run it, the ability to use an extra lineman is facilitated by being able to run the football, be ahead of the chains and be winning,” Monken said. “That’s a fact. Any part of your run game is a byproduct of continuing to be able to play with physicality, being able to run it, and that’s going to give you other opportunities, but I think Josh has done a great job when he’s been in.”
3. In Week 6, the Ravens held Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels to 22 rushing yards, then a season low. In Week 16, they forced the Steelers’ Russell Wilson, one of the NFL’s most turnover-averse quarterbacks, into two crucial turnovers. In Week 17, they shut out the Houston Texans’ offense. But the Ravens’ most impressive defensive feat might’ve come against Buffalo in Week 4.
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Of the 14 sacks Allen took in the regular season, a season-high three came that night in Baltimore. At a surprisingly mobile 6 feet 5, 237 pounds, he might be the NFL’s most difficult quarterback to bring down. Just 8% of Allen’s pressures ended up as sacks in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus, the league’s lowest rate. Over his seven final regular-season games, he was dropped just once.
But the Ravens got to Allen early and often. He was pressured 15 times, tied for his second most in a game this season, and had a fourth “sack” — on a 0-yard play — wiped out by a holding call on Buffalo. All three sacks effectively ended Bills drives. One came on third down in Bills territory. Another came on third down in Ravens territory and led to a missed 48-yard field goal. And another came on second down and ended with outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy strip-sacking Allen on a poorly conceived trick play.
Against most quarterbacks, even a pressure is enough to torpedo a pass play. But Allen, like Jackson, is resilient and resourceful. His accuracy plummeted this season when harassed (41.9%), but he still passed for 386 yards, five touchdowns and one interception on throws from outside the pocket, according to TruMedia. Allen was just a step away from the Ravens’ sideline when he launched a deep shot to wide receiver Khalil Shakir for a 52-yard gain.
“In the pocket, you have to be careful,” inside linebacker Roquan Smith said Thursday. “But outside of the pocket, you treat him just like any other runner on the field.”
4. The Bills don’t have a dizzying collection of skill position players. But their presnap motion can leave defenses teetering.
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Buffalo ran 754 plays this season with a man in motion, according to TruMedia, sixth most in the NFL, and ranked second in both yards per play and explosive-play rate on those designs — behind only the Ravens.
In the Bills’ blowout win Sunday over the Denver Broncos, Allen was 19-for-24 for 269 yards and two touchdowns when Buffalo used presnap motion, good for a 141.1 passer rating. Not even an All-Pro cornerback was safe from its hazards.
In the fourth quarter, Bills wide receiver Mack Hollins motioned away from a bunch formation, triggering a lot of finger-pointing from Denver’s defensive backs, before he quickly returned to the bunch. Allen took a shotgun snap as Hollins accelerated and wide receiver Curtis Samuel ran a crossing route over the middle of the field from the same side. Broncos star cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who’d mirrored Hollins on his initial motion, was 5 yards behind Samuel when he realized he was the defender responsible for him. Samuel’s 55-yard catch-and-run score gave Buffalo a 28-7 lead, extinguishing any flickering Denver hopes.
Two months ago, the Bills’ window dressing might’ve been a cause for alarm in Owings Mills. Over the season’s first 10 weeks, the Ravens’ defense ranked 25th in EPA per play against presnap motion. Since Week 11, however, it’s second.
“Their offensive scheme has been very successful in terms of putting everybody in different places, utilizing everybody’s strengths … the motions and all that stuff makes you communicate,” safety Kyle Hamilton said Wednesday. “I think it is something that we have had our bumps in the road with, but I think we have gotten really good at it, to this point in the season. It is the reason that we are still one of eight [teams] still playing. We just have to continue that. Every game is its own game. Just because we communicated well last week or the week before doesn’t mean we automatically are going to do that. We have to hone in on it this week and make it a point of emphasis.”
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5. Jackson has played 103 games over his Ravens career, including the postseason. Sunday’s game should be his coldest yet.
According to the National Weather Service, temperatures around Orchard Park are expected to fall Sunday from 19 degrees to as low as 7. With the wind chill around Highmark Stadium, located about 6 miles from Lake Erie, it could feel even colder.
Jackson has played in just four outdoor games in which the temperature at kickoff was 32 degrees or colder, according to TruMedia:
- 2018 (27 degrees): In a Week 14 road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, Jackson went 13-for-24 (54.2%) for 147 yards and two touchdowns.
- 2023 (31 degrees): In an AFC divisional-round home win over the Texans, Jackson went 16-for-22 (72.7%) for 152 yards and two touchdowns.
- 2024 (27 degrees): In a Week 18 home win over the Cleveland Browns, Jackson went 16-for-32 (50%) for 217 yards and two touchdowns.
- 2024 (32 degrees): In a wild-card-round home win over the Steelers, Jackson went 16-for-21 for 175 yards and two touchdowns.
Overall, Jackson has completed 61.6% of his cold-weather passes for 7 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns and no interceptions, good for a 109.4 passer rating. Allen’s rate of production over 14 games is remarkably similar: 61.5% accuracy, 7.2 yards per attempt, 30 touchdowns and 13 interceptions (94.0 passer rating).
Jackson said Wednesday that he wouldn’t wear gloves in Sunday’s game — “I tried that in practice. I was horrible” — but acknowledged earlier this month that he could wear a long-sleeved shirt if the conditions called for it. Typically, though, he goes without.
“I can’t go into a game and be like, ‘It’s too cold, I can’t make things happen,’” he said Wednesday. “Coach [John Harbaugh] would probably send me home. … So I have to lock in in the cold.”
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