The sting of defeat has subsided, but not faded entirely. The hold of the game has loosened, but it was still hanging on in the Ravens’ locker room as late as Tuesday afternoon. There are only so many things the 2024 Ravens can say about the 2023 AFC championship game, and some of those bone-deep pains are probably better off in an internal monologue, not a reporter’s notebook.
Still, the circumstances of Thursday’s season opener can make the misery of that late-January season ender — Chiefs 17, Ravens 10 — too much to ignore for some. Wide receiver Zay Flowers, whose goal-line fumble at M&T Bank Stadium helped send Kansas City to an eventual second straight Super Bowl title, told reporters after Tuesday’s practice that this is a “different season now, so I’m not too worried about last year.” Later, he was asked about the Ravens’ excitement for the prime-time game in Arrowhead Stadium. “We’re all excited,” he said, “especially because of what happened last year.”
What happened last year kept the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson from a Super Bowl berth that seemed inevitable. What happens Thursday night could shape the AFC rivals’ battle for the Lombardi Trophy this season. Here’s what to watch in their Week 1 matchup.
1. A 7-month-old complaint could come full circle Thursday.
Through the spring and summer, no criticism of the Ravens’ performance against Kansas City endured quite like the criticism of offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s play-calling. The Ravens had entered the showdown with the NFL’s most efficient rushing offense, according to FTN; the Chiefs, with the NFL’s sixth-worst rushing defense. The Ravens had rushed for 229 yards (5.5 per carry) in their divisional-round win; Kansas City had allowed 182 rushing yards (4.7 per carry) in theirs.
Then the game kicked off in Baltimore, and nothing went as expected. The Ravens finished with 10 designed runs for 53 yards, both season lows. Their running backs had six carries for 23 yards, also season lows. So surprising was their ground game withdrawal that even then-Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry, asked Sunday about the AFC championship game, acknowledged imagining how the offense might’ve looked with him in the backfield.
“Hell yes,” he said. “I was wishing I could suit up that day watching that game.”
The Ravens didn’t need a Monstar at running back that day, though. They needed better run blocking. The Chiefs’ much-maligned run defense established the line of scrimmage on the first play, with defensive end George Karlaftis shoving the Ravens’ Pro Bowl right guard, a not-totally-healthy Kevin Zeitler, into Ravens fullback Patrick Ricard, who’d failed to set the edge against linebacker Drue Tranquill. They fell like bowling pins, and running back Justice Hill was stopped for a 1-yard gain.
It went on like that for much of the first three quarters. On early downs, the Ravens rushed six times. The results: 1 yard, 15 yards, 5 yards, 1 yard, 1 yard and 3 yards. Their most successful designed run was a 21-yard keeper by Jackson on fourth-and-1, but even that first-quarter blast came with six offensive linemen on the field, a quick snap and Kansas City scrambling to get linemen in their correct gaps.
The Ravens had finished the regular season leading the NFL in yards before contact per carry (1.98), according to TruMedia. Against the Chiefs, they averaged just 1.4, which would’ve ranked 12th. But on early downs, their average cushion was just 0.67 yards, which would’ve ranked last in the NFL by far.
Sure, the Ravens could’ve kept plugging away. But if their renowned run game suddenly looked to Monken like one of the league’s worst rushing attacks, a strategic about-face would’ve made sense. And time was running out. The Ravens entered halftime trailing 17-7. Kansas City had scored on three of its first five drives. At that point, time-consuming, run-heavy drives would’ve seemed impractical.
The challenge for this year’s Ravens is that they might have no better luck in creating space for Henry. Kansas City returns its top three linebackers, its starting defensive ends and All-Pro defensive lineman Chris Jones, plus starting defensive lineman Derrick Nnadi, who missed the upset in Baltimore. The Ravens signed Henry but lost three starting offensive linemen. The line’s preseason run-blocking performance did not inspire much early season confidence.
“I’m excited for them to go and showcase them as a group and us as a whole,” Henry said. “Going to do our job and executing. It’s all tied in together, we all trust one another — just go out there and put it all together.”
2. The Ravens’ most established receiving threat is a tight end. Their most impressive receiver in training camp was another tight end. Monken’s appetite for two-tight-end sets with Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely should become apparent Thursday.
He didn’t show much of a taste for it last season. Of the Ravens’ 568 offensive plays from Week 2 to Week 10, the only stretch in which Andrews and Likely were both healthy, they lined up together just 81 times (14.3%), or nine snaps per game. Three-wide-receiver sets cut into their opportunities. So did heavy formations featuring Ricard.
But Monken said Monday that he felt “good” about the potential for a more impactful Andrews-Likely partnership in 2024.
“Mark was out a little bit of last year’s training camp, and then ‘Zay’ [Likely] came in and he got dinged up a little bit in the preseason,” Monken said. “So it’s a little bit hard as we worked through it. They’ve been healthy this offseason. They’ve been healthy for the most part through training camp. So we’re excited to get those guys on the field at the same time.”
Jackson’s 36 drop-backs in “12″ personnel (one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers) with Andrews and Likely last season were methodical. He went 23-for-29 (79.3%) for 253 yards and one touchdown and averaged a super-productive 0.50 expected points added per attempt. (The San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy led the NFL last season with 0.29 EPA per attempt overall.) Jackson also took one sack and scrambled six times for 24 yards.
The Ravens’ running game didn’t struggle in 12 personnel, either, even though Andrews and Likely aren’t true in-line blockers. On their 35 total designed runs with the two together, the offense averaged 4.8 yards and 0.00 EPA per rush, just below its strong overall season-long averages (4.9 yards and 0.03 EPA per rush).
The Chiefs could be a unique matchup, though. Most defenses last season matched the Ravens’ 12 personnel looks with nickel personnel (five defensive backs), favoring more speed in coverage and less size in the run game. But Kansas City lined up with nickel personnel on less than half of its snaps, according to FTN, one of the league’s lowest rates. Instead, the Chiefs used base personnel (four defensive backs) on 29% of their snaps and dime personnel (six defensive backs) 25% of the time.
If the Ravens see base looks often, they could like their chances on drop-backs, especially if Jackson can create out of structure. If the Ravens get dime looks, they’ll be tempted to run the ball early and often.
3. Two offensive linemen and a draft-day trade that could have been.
In late April, during Day 2 of the NFL draft, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta said he called the Chiefs to accept a proposed trade that would’ve swapped Baltimore’s No. 62 overall pick for Kansas City’s No. 64 overall pick and a fifth-round pick.
But the Chiefs went back on their deal, according to DeCosta, who took Washington right tackle Roger Rosengarten with his original second-round pick. The Chiefs found another trade partner, moving up a spot and acquiring the San Francisco 49ers’ No. 63 overall pick, which they used to take BYU left tackle Kingsley Suamataia.
“You never know 100%, but we had some people tell us that this was the case: Both teams, the 49ers and the Chiefs, both wanted Rosengarten,” DeCosta told the team website in May. “So when Rosengarten got picked, the Chiefs traded with San Francisco to get the next tackle.
“I would have been very angry had we traded for the Chiefs and they had taken Rosengarten. I would have been in a dark place.”
The near-trade could take on new resonance Thursday. Suamataia won the Chiefs’ left tackle job easily this summer, allowing just one pressure on 22 pass-blocking snaps over two preseason games, according to Pro Football Focus.
Suamataia, considered one of the most athletic players in college football last year, will likely face an even more impressive physical specimen in Odafe Oweh, one of the Ravens’ top performers in camp. Fellow outside linebackers Kyle Van Noy, David Ojabo and Tavius Robinson, along with defensive backs coming on slot blitzes, could also challenge the rookie protecting quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ blind side.
“He had a good training camp,” coach Andy Reid told local reporters Sunday. “He had a good preseason, but this is going to be a learning experience for him here. This is a good defensive line, and … I’m sure there will be some ups and downs as he goes, like any young player has. But he’s prepared himself, and it’s time to go play now.”
Rosengarten also had an impressive preseason, but Monken indicated Monday that the versatile Patrick Mekari would start at right tackle. A two-player rotation at the spot is also possible. The challenge will be immense for whoever’s on the field: Karlaftis, who had 10.5 sacks last season, typically lines up over the opponent’s right tackle, and Jones (10.5 sacks in 2023) also rushes off the edge.
4. Mahomes is an early favorite to dethrone Jackson as the league’s Most Valuable Player, and his supporting cast bolsters his case almost as much as Mahomes’ own awesome talents.
In Travis Kelce, Mahomes has perhaps the NFL’s top tight end, who at age 34 tormented the Ravens’ pass defense in the AFC championship game, finishing with a game-high 11 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown.
In first-round pick Xavier Worthy, Mahomes has a wide receiver who ran the 40-yard dash in an NFL-scouting-combine-record 4.21 seconds, blazing speed that should create both big plays and space over the middle of the field for Kelce and rising-star wideout Rashee Rice. (The eventual return of former Ravens wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who’ll miss Thursday’s game with a shoulder injury, should stretch secondaries, too.)
And in left guard Joe Thuney, center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith, Mahomes has one of the NFL’s best interior offensive lines, a trio who should help give him enough time to find someone open downfield.
“They can score from any part of the field, because obviously, Andy Reid is a great coach, but Patrick Mahomes is obviously a problem,” defensive coordinator Zach Orr said Monday.
One problem for the Chiefs’ passing attack: those strengths match up with the Ravens’ strengths.
While their defense couldn’t stop Kelce in the playoffs, the Ravens finished the regular season with the second-best coverage DVOA, a metric of efficiency, against tight ends, according to FTN. Inside linebacker Roquan Smith has a great feel for routes in zone coverage, and safety Kyle Hamilton was one of the NFL’s best slot defenders last season.
Ravens opponents also completed just 23.6% of their deep passes (throws of at least 20 air yards) last season, the second-best rate among NFL defenses, according to TruMedia. With Marcus Williams fully healthy, the Ravens should have one of the NFL’s best center-field safeties back in form.
And then there’s the pass rush. The Ravens led the NFL in sacks last season, though they lost outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney (9.5 sacks) and inside linebacker Patrick Queen (3.5 sacks) in free agency and defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to the Seattle Seahawks. All-Pro defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike is back up front, and Oweh and defensive lineman Travis Jones are poised for breakout seasons. In the AFC championship game, against a Kansas City line missing Thuney, the Ravens pressured Mahomes on 15 of his 46 drop-backs and recorded two sacks, according to PFF.
5. The Ravens were prolific scorers in the first half. Then they faced the Chiefs.
Over their first 18 games, including their divisional-round win over the Houston Texans, the Ravens outscored opponents by a combined 271-129 in the first and second quarters. They entered halftime trailing just twice in that span, with the margin just three points in both: an eventual Week 3 loss to the Indianapolis Colts and an eventual Week 14 win over the Los Angeles Rams.
Kansas City, meanwhile, led by 10 at intermission of the AFC championship game. Maybe the Ravens shouldn’t have been surprised. Slow starts have been a theme of their recent struggles against the Chiefs:
- In 2018, the Ravens led early but entered halftime down 17-10.
- In 2019, they allowed 23 unanswered points in the second quarter and trailed 23-6 at halftime.
- In 2020, they gave up four first-half touchdowns and trailed 27-10 at halftime.
- In 2021, when the Ravens and Jackson secured their lone win, they trailed 21-17 at halftime and never led until late in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens will have to take the crowd out of the game early Thursday. Pregame festivities include a Super Bowl LVIII ceremony, an unveiling of the Chiefs’ latest championship banner and a flyover by a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber.
Chiefs fans have plenty to cheer about already. The Ravens don’t need to give them anything else.
