The best thing about the Ravens’ disastrous Week 10 defensive performance might’ve been its timing. After a 35-34 win Thursday night over the Cincinnati Bengals, the Ravens had even more time to pore through the film, the numbers. Even more time to forget about all that had gone wrong and focus instead on what might finally go right.
“We worked at it through the weekend, and we’ll continue to work at it, and everybody is determined to get better,” coach John Harbaugh said at his news conference Monday, where the focus was less on Sunday’s AFC North showdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers and more on Thursday’s shoot-out, in which Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow finished with 428 passing yards and four touchdowns. “We have a growth mindset to get better at everything with a high sense of urgency, but that one area has to get better.”
It’s hard to imagine the Ravens’ pass defense getting much worse. They’re last in the NFL in pass defense (294.9 yards allowed per game) and have already given up more passing touchdowns (22) than they did all last year (18), when they had one of the league’s stingiest secondaries.
Solutions have not come easily this season for first-year coordinator Zach Orr, and new changes might not arrive quickly. As the Ravens look to reverse their fortunes on defense, here are four pressing questions the unit now faces.
Should the Ravens play more man-to-man?
The Ravens don’t play a lot of straight man-to-man. But neither does the rest of the NFL. The Ravens’ man coverage rate is just 28.7% — far behind the league-leading Detroit Lions (40%) but still 11th highest in the league, according to TruMedia.
Those numbers don’t capture the full picture, though. Some coverages start out with zone drops and play out with man-to-man principles, while others start out with man looks until routes take defenders to the edge of their assigned zones.
The Ravens’ reliance on zone coverage has come under scrutiny in the wake of Thursday’s barn burner. Against zone looks, Burrow went 26-for-36 for 372 yards and two touchdowns and took three sacks, per TruMedia. Against man, he was just 7-for-16 for 72 yards.
Overall, though, both coverage types have been equally risky propositions for the Ravens. Against man looks, which feature a higher rate of blitzes (five or more pass rushers), opposing passers have completed 59.3% of their passes for 7.2 yards per attempt, nine touchdowns and one interception, with a 5.6% sack rate. Against zone looks, opponents have completed 68.8% of their passes for 8.3 yards per attempt, nine touchdowns and four interceptions, with an 8% sack rate.
The play-to-play efficiency is nearly equal, too: 0.16 expected points added per drop-back against man — about as productive as a typical Jared Goff drop-back — and 0.15 EPA per drop-back against zone.
“Sometimes we’re in ‘spot’ zones, sometimes we’re in ‘match’ zones, sometimes we’re in ‘fire’ zone,” Harbaugh said Monday. “Sometimes we’re in two-deep [coverage shells], sometimes we’re in three-deep. All those things are different, and they have different ways of playing routes, but the bottom line is that you want to keep the ball in front of you, and you want to be able to see your threats and the ball.”
Should the Ravens simplify their defense?
After the Seahawks hired Mike Macdonald as their head coach last offseason, Seattle general manager John Schneider borrowed a Sean McVay-ism to describe the defense he’d seen on tape: “illusion of complexity.” Opposing quarterbacks had trouble figuring out the Ravens’ post-snap picture, even as the Ravens themselves, well-schooled and highly skilled, rarely had trouble putting all the pieces together.
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Orr’s promotion to defensive coordinator was supposed to build a bridge to new ground in the Ravens’ ever-evolving defensive landscape. But Orr’s first two months have felt more like an emergency rebuild than a by-the-books project. Coaches and players have routinely pointed to communication lapses as their undoing, a surprise for a system with so much personnel continuity.
If the Ravens sacrificed any schematic complexity in their play-caller change, the changes have come on a more granular level. According to Field Vision, the Ravens are still disguising their coverages — usually showing a two-high defensive structure before shifting to one high close to the snap, or vice versa — at one of the league’s highest rates. They’re also running simulated pressures — where the threat of five or more pass rushers forces offenses to adjust their protection rules and keep blockers in, only for the defense to send just four pass rushers after the quarterback — at a rate comparable to last year’s.
But Orr’s misdirection has, at times, given the Ravens more trouble than their opponents. In their Week 5 shoot-out against the Bengals, Burrow hit wide receiver Tee Higgins for an 11-yard touchdown after inside linebacker Roquan Smith, who’d lined up over the center to mess with Cincinnati’s pass protection, couldn’t drop into coverage fast enough (or accurately enough) to disrupt the throwing lane. Later, Burrow found Higgins for a 5-yard touchdown after buzzing a pass past defensive lineman Nnamdi Madubuike, who was also falling back into a shallow zone on another simulated pressure.
At other points this season, the Ravens have looked alternately unprepared and overburdened. Pick plays and “rub” routes have led to easy completions. Quick snaps have caught the Ravens by surprise. Coverage busts have unfolded weekly, with stars like All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton even bearing responsibility.
Could a simplified defense help lift the Ravens’ floor, especially in pass defense? Perhaps. But it would also limit their ceiling. Some of their biggest plays this season have come with the help of pre-snap window dressing. Hamilton’s strip-sack of Cleveland Browns quarterback Jameis Winston in Week 8 came on a disguised blitz.
And on Thursday, the Ravens duped Burrow into throwing a near-interception to cornerback Brandon Stephens.
The Ravens have three more games until they reach their Week 14 bye. At that point, Harbaugh will have time to consider bigger-picture questions on defense, from how the Ravens are strategizing to how their coaches are teaching technique. Until then, Orr and his unit will probably keep experimenting with the formula that had worked year after year in Baltimore — and might still this season.
“So many times this year, just one guy is not exactly where he’s supposed to be, and that’s where it’s been hit,” cornerback Marlon Humphrey said last week. “It’s been hitting, like, 90%. When you watch other teams, you see people wide open here, wide open here, [and] it doesn’t get hit, but for us, it’s been really making us get so detailed, because it seems like every time one guy is supposed to be 2 yards outside the hash, and you’re not 2 yards outside the hash, the ball goes there. …
“It’s those little, tiny details that’s made everybody tighten up their approach, tighten up their mindset and really just focus to just do only your job, your job only. So it’s been very unique from that aspect, but it makes you focus. It makes you focus, and that’s what we need.”
Should the Ravens bench Marcus Williams?
Effectively, they already did in Week 8, when Williams was active but didn’t play a snap against the Browns. It did little to cure the Ravens’ defensive ills. Winston, starting for the first time since Deshaun Watson’s season-ending Achilles tendon injury, finished with a season-high 334 passing yards in a 29-24 upset win.
Williams returned the following week and has played most of the team’s meaningful defensive snaps since. He was solid in a Week 9 win over the Denver Broncos but a weak point against Cincinnati. Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase coasted by him on a 67-yard catch-and-run score, and Williams’ miscommunication with Stephens later led to a 70-card touchdown for Chase.
“The techniques were played wrong,” Harbaugh said Monday of Chase’s second score. The Ravens were playing a coverage shell that required their deep-lying defensive backs to pass off deep routes when appropriate, but Stephens and Williams both followed tight end Mike Gesicki when he broke for the sideline as Chase headed inside. “They weren’t played the way that they’re designed to be played, whether something wasn’t seen the right way, or it was misunderstood. We’ll look at it from a coaching standpoint that we didn’t coach it well enough. We have to coach it better, make sure that we understand it more clearly in that type of situation.”
Over his first two injury-marred seasons in Baltimore, and even during his first training camp under Orr, Williams proved himself a more-than-capable safety. But he doesn’t have an interception or a forced fumble in his nine games this year, and he’s on pace to finish with his fewest passes defended in a season since 2018. According to Pro Football Focus, quarterbacks have posted a perfect passer rating (158.3) when targeting Williams in coverage; his 247 yards allowed are already a career high.
The Ravens’ trouble is a lack of reliable alternatives. Eddie Jackson, signed this past offseason to replace Geno Stone, was benched against Denver after a porous performance against Cleveland. Ar’Darius Washington, who’s flashed in recent weeks, had never played regular snaps as a deep-lying safety until this year. Rookies Sanoussi Kane and Beau Brade, both late-round draft prospects, have combined for just four defensive snaps. And Hamilton is most dangerous when lined up closer to the line of scrimmage.
The Ravens need another back-end Band-Aid, whether it’s Williams or not. Last year, they allowed just 17 completions of 20-plus air yards. This year, they’ve already given up an NFL-worst 23.
“I’m just going to stay prepared, no matter what,” Williams said last month, before the win against Denver. “I’d rather be prepared for an opportunity and not have one than have an opportunity and not be prepared, so I’m going to stay prepared. When my name is called, I’m going to go out there and do what I have to do.”
Should the Ravens bench Brandon Stephens?
Stephens’ decline, like Williams’ downturn, has been sudden and unexpected. Last year, in his first year as a full-time starter, he was the Ravens’ most reliable outside cornerback. In a “Thursday Night Football” win over the Bengals, he lined up against Chase on 22 routes and allowed just two catches on three targets for 2 yards and a touchdown, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
A year later, the results were far worse. Against a mix of Cincinnati receivers Thursday, Stephens allowed seven catches on 10 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown, according to NGS, and couldn’t complete what would’ve been a crucial red-zone interception.
With opponents reluctant to test Humphrey this season, quarterbacks have instead picked on Stephens, and to great success. Only three cornerbacks have been targeted more often than Stephens (60), according to PFF, and only two have given up more yards in coverage (555). Over the past month, his coverage grade has been among the NFL’s worst at the position.
In training camp, Stephens put himself in position to make plays on the ball — and often did. In the regular season, he’s still forcing high-risk throws — but without the same productivity. Stephens is 14th in the NFL in tight-window rate (35.9%), according to NGS, which defines tight-window throws as having the defender less than a yard away from the target. But he’s allowed an overall catch rate of 64.1%, with just five passes defended and no interceptions.
“There have been plays, obviously, that have been made,” Harbaugh said about a month ago. “He’s had plays he’d want to have back, but there are really not too many that I would look at and say, ‘Hey, that’s poor technique’ — really, none. They’ve made some plays on him, some things [where] you’d coach the details, in terms of where he’s leveraged on the receiver. And he’s all ears, and he’s really detailed, in that sense. So I feel good about the way Brandon has been playing.”
The Ravens’ options out wide are somewhat limited, too. Harbaugh said Monday that the team is not considering moving Stephens back to safety, where he started his career in Baltimore. His “big job,” Harbaugh said, is still at outside cornerback.
With the development of rookie Nate Wiggins, the Ravens have three starting-level options there. But only Stephens has played extensively at the right cornerback position; Wiggins has been deployed on the other side, while Humphrey has played as the left cornerback in base personnel groupings (four defensive backs) and has moved inside in nickel (five DBs) and dime (six DBs) personnel.
Humphrey could return to a full-time outside role if Stephens continues to struggle, but that would limit Hamilton’s versatility and put more pressure on slot cornerback Arthur Maulet, who’s still working his way back into form after arthroscopic knee surgery.
Other options could develop over the season’s second half. Jalyn Armour-Davis has good size and speed but has struggled to stay healthy. Rookie T.J. Tampa has had a bumpy rookie year, with injuries stalling the fourth-round pick’s development. The Ravens’ most intriguing option might be trade deadline addition Tre’Davious White. Acquired in a late-round pick swap with the Los Angeles Rams, White was one of the NFL’s best cornerbacks until a series of injuries starting in 2021.
“We expect him to get in there and start taking snaps in the rotation at corner,” Harbaugh said of White, who hasn’t played since September. “That’s why we traded for him, so we’re looking forward to it, and I know he’s excited.”
Correction: This story has been updated with the correct spelling of John Schneider’s surname.
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