For a supposed Super Bowl contender, the 2024 Ravens already have a deep catalog of miseries and misadventures. There have been confounding losses and white-knuckle wins. A disappearing defense and problematic special teams. An inaccurate Justin Tucker and a benched Marcus Williams. A suspended Diontae Johnson and an unemployed Eddie Jackson.
But even the most disappointed Ravens fan could recognize that this year’s troubles are but a molehill next to the mountain of woe that has befallen their next opponent. The New York Giants are an NFL-worst 2-11. They’re starting their third-string quarterback because their backup, who was demoted after they benched Daniel Jones, is hurt. They’ve lost their best offensive and defensive players to season-ending injuries. And, after a plane flew a banner over MetLife Stadium on Sunday calling on team owner John Mara to fix the “dumpster fire,” their top draft pick quipped that he had nothing to do with it.
“I ain’t pay for the plane,” star rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers said.
The heavily favored Ravens (8-5) might not get much out of Sunday’s trip to East Rutherford, New Jersey. But they certainly can’t leave with a loss. Here’s what to watch in the Week 15 matchup.
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1. About two months before Lamar Jackson became the NFL’s highest-paid player, finalizing a five-year, $260 million deal with the Ravens in May 2023, the Giants signed Jones to an extension that underscored the leaguewide desperation for competent quarterback play.
Jones was coming off the most efficient season of his career and the Giants’ first playoff appearance since 2016. After finishing outside the top 15 in ESPN’s QBR rankings over his first three seasons with the franchise, Jones had finished sixth overall in 2022. Instead of designating him with the franchise tag, setting the stage for another prove-it year, the Giants locked Jones down with a four-year, $160 million extension, including $82 million guaranteed at signing.
“We’re happy with the decision we made and happy to move forward with Daniel,” Giants general manager Joe Schoen told local reporters in March 2023. He added: “Daniel will continue to get better. If he’s just at his floor right now, I’m really excited about what his ceiling is going to be.”
The Giants never hit it. Jones finished 28th in QBR in an injury-shortened 2023. This year, he’s again 28th. After a 2-8 start, Jones was benched last month in favor of backup Tommy DeVito. On Nov. 22, Jones was cut by the Giants after requesting his release.
As Schoen deals with the fallout from Jones’ implosion — another lost season, almost $70 million in dead money on the salary cap, the search for a first-round quarterback in next year’s draft — the Ravens and general manager Eric DeCosta have made good on their investment in Jackson. They were the NFL’s best team in the regular season last year, when Jackson won his second NFL Most Valuable Player award, and they are poised to return to the playoffs this season, with Jackson again in the mix for MVP honors.
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“We made Lamar the highest-paid quarterback because we felt he was the best quarterback in the league,” DeCosta said in August. “He won an MVP [in 2019], now two MVPs. I’m blessed. We’re very happy that we did that. ... We try to be responsible with our deals, and we try to be respectful of the player’s position, but we’re going to pay the players what we can afford to pay the players.”
2. Takeaways are the Ravens’ top priority on defense, coordinator Zach Orr said last week. But it could be a while before they face a quarterback who’s generous with his giveaways.
DeVito, who’s expected to start Sunday in place of the Giants’ erratic and newly injured Drew Lock (heel), has thrown just three interceptions over 11 career appearances (seven starts). Over the past two seasons, DeVito has a turnover-worthy-play rate of just 2.2% on his drop-backs, according to Pro Football Focus, a rate that would rank in the upper third of qualifying quarterbacks this year. (Jackson’s, meanwhile, is just 1.5% this season, while Lock’s is an astronomical 6%.)
Careful quarterbacks await in Week 16 and Week 17, too. The Pittsburgh Steelers’ Russell Wilson has the NFL’s best turnover-worthy-play rate (1.2%) and has thrown three interceptions in seven starts. The Houston Texans’ C.J. Stroud is just behind DeVito (2.6%) despite having nine picks in 13 starts. Not until Week 18 do the Ravens get a mistake-prone passer. The Cleveland Browns’ Jameis Winston is fifth in turnover-worthy plays (15), racking up almost two per game.
The Ravens can’t be picky about the handouts they get. They have just two takeaways since Week 10 — a fumble recovery against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 10 and an interception against the Steelers in Week 11 — and have 11 total this season. A year after tying the Giants for the league lead in takeaways (31), the Ravens entered Week 15 tied for 23rd.
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“I think that we’ve had opportunities that we didn’t take advantage of, whether it’s dropped interceptions, or we’d get a sack but we’re not stripping at the ball,” Orr said Thursday. “And then I think also, with some of the plays, obviously, blitzes and stuff, that causes more turnovers, so we look at all that throughout the bye week. So I’m excited. Our guys are aware of it. ... Coming out of these last four games, we want to be able to generate takeaways and play red-zone defense.”
3. A month ago, the Giants’ defensive front looked like the first big test in an end-of-season gauntlet for the Ravens’ offensive line. Injuries have changed that outlook.
Through Week 10, the Giants led the NFL in sack rate (11.6%) and were sixth in pressure rate (38%), according to TruMedia. All-Pro defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence was second in the league in sacks (nine), and outside linebackers Brian Burns (six) and Azeez Ojulari were tied for 15th.
Since the Giants returned from their Week 11 bye, however, that dominance has faded. With Ojulari sidelined by a Week 12 toe injury and Lawrence suffering a season-ending elbow injury in Week 13, the Giants have the NFL’s second-worst sack rate (2%) and second-worst pressure rate (22.3%) over the past three weeks.
Burns is still a top talent — he’s fourth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate among edge rushers — and outside linebacker Kayvon Thibodeaux has first-round pedigree. But replacing Lawrence has been a challenge.
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Of the five defensive linemen who played at least 30% of the Giants’ defensive snaps in Sunday’s loss to the New Orleans Saints — Jordon Riley, Elijah Chatman, Elijah Garcia, Cory Durden and Casey Rogers — just one was drafted. Riley was a seventh-round pick; the four others are former undrafted free agents.
The Ravens, who struggled to keep the Philadelphia Eagles out of the pocket in Week 13 (season-worst 56.8% pressure rate), should have the advantage in the trenches Sunday. But it won’t be easy. Even without Lawrence, the Giants held a potent Saints rushing attack to 92 rushing yards (2.8 per carry) on Sunday.
“I thought the guys that they played last week played pretty well,” offensive coordinator Todd Monken said Thursday. “I didn’t see a significant drop-off. I mean, they’re pros. They’ve been waiting for their opportunity, so we’re going to have to play well. We’re going to have to play well. We’re going to have to play a lot better than we did a couple of weeks ago, and our guys are up to that challenge. I think the bye week’s going to help, and we’ve got to be ready to go.”
4. The Ravens aren’t just the NFL’s biggest favorites this week (16 points). They’re as favored as they’ve been in years.
The last time Las Vegas oddsmakers made the Ravens at least 16-point favorites, according to Covers.com, was Week 15 in the 2019 season, when they faced a New York Jets team that was a 17-point underdog. The Ravens won — and covered the spread — in Baltimore, 42-21, to clinch an AFC North title and extend their winning streak to 10 games. The Jets, led on offense by quarterback Sam Darnold and running back Le’Veon Bell, dropped to 5-9.
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The Ravens have been double-digit favorites in nine games since, winning all nine and covering the spread in five.
“Being a Ravens football player, I think we should beat the Giants,” wide receiver Rashod Bateman said Monday. “But, obviously, we’ve got to go out and do what we need to do. I think that’s what we need to focus on right now, is doing our job.”
5. The most important game of the Ravens’ regular season arrives next week, when AFC North-leading Pittsburgh comes to Baltimore for a matchup that could decide the division. But Week 15 has plenty of playoff considerations, too.
According to The New York Times’ playoff simulator, with a win over the Giants, the Ravens would boost their AFC North title chances from about 29% to about 31%. They’d also bolster their hopes of claiming the AFC’s top wild-card spot — and a likely matchup as the No. 5 seed against the Houston Texans — from about 45% to about 47%. With a loss, however, the Ravens’ division crown and No. 5 seed odds would fall to about 16% and 27%, respectively.
The Ravens need help elsewhere Sunday. If the Steelers (10-3) lose to the Eagles, the Ravens’ AFC North title hopes would rise to about 36% with a win over the Giants.
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If the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5), another wild-card contender, lose to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Ravens would have about 52% odds of claiming the AFC’s No. 5 seed with a win.
And if the Buffalo Bills (10-3) lose to the Detroit Lions, the Ravens’ faint hopes of getting the No. 2 seed would rise from about 5% to about 11% with a win and a Steelers loss.
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