Training camp in Owings Mills has wrapped up. The preseason is (mercifully) over. The Ravens’ initial 53-man roster is set. What better time, then, to imagine everything going right in their 2024 season?
With the Ravens’ Week 1 game against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs just eight days away, here are 10 reasons this could be the year they claim the franchise’s third Lombardi Trophy.
1. Lamar Jackson is only getting better.
Jackson’s second NFL Most Valuable Player season wasn’t as brain melting as his first MVP season, but it did show how far the quarterback has come since 2019.
Jackson, one of the NFL’s best middle-of-the-field passers, threw a career-high 50.3% of his passes outside the numbers last season and completed 68.7% of them, according to Pro Football Focus. Only nine quarterbacks with at least 100 passes overall in 2023 finished with a higher completion rate.
Jackson also set career highs with his accuracy on play-action passes (73.7%) and his efficiency, averaging 0.31 expected points added per play-action drop-back, one of the NFL’s best rates, according to TruMedia.
Perhaps most revealing, Jackson was the NFL’s best quarterback when trailing in games last season. He completed a career-high 71.4% of his passes and averaged a career-high 0.35 EPA per drop-back with the Ravens behind, both of which led the NFL.
And Jackson did it all in his first year under offensive coordinator Todd Monken. With another year of experience in the system, he should be even more comfortable as a passer. With a lighter frame, Jackson could be an even more dangerous runner in 2024, too.
2. Their skill position players are as talented as they’ve been in years.
Yes, Jackson’s offensive line could be problematic. (More on that Friday.) But his offensive weapons might be the best he’s ever had.
Wide receiver Zay Flowers set Ravens rookie records in catches (77) and receiving yards (858) last season, production that owed little to his ability as a deep-ball threat, his most striking talent as a draft prospect. According to ESPN’s Receiver Tracking Metrics, Flowers was the NFL’s 10th-highest-performing wide receiver, elite at getting open and great after the catch.
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Rashod Bateman, while injury-prone, might be the team’s most well-rounded wide receiver. When healthy in training camp, the 2021 first-round pick largely outplayed Flowers, earning more targets and getting better separation downfield. Rookie cornerback Nate Wiggins called him the team’s toughest wide receiver to cover early in the offseason.
Nelson Agholor was productive in his first year in Baltimore and impressive in camp. Tylan Wallace, Deonte Harty and rookie Devontez Walker should fortify the team’s depth.
Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely give the Ravens maybe the NFL’s best tight end duo. In an injury-shortened 2023, Andrews had a career-best catch rate and finished second among qualifying tight ends in touchdowns, third in yards per route run and third in EPA per target, according to TruMedia. Likely, meanwhile, ranked first in receiving touchdowns, first in EPA per target and seventh in yards per route run at the position over the regular season’s final six weeks.
In the backfield, the Ravens have one of the NFL’s most fearsome runners. Derrick Henry graded out as PFF’s No. 3 running back last season, and he should have even better running lanes playing next to Jackson. His mere presence will pose a stress test for defenses: better to commit more manpower up front or keep another safety back for downfield security?
Harbaugh called backup running back Justice Hill, who set career highs in rushing and receiving yards last season, a starting-level player. Keaton Mitchell averaged 8.4 yards per carry as a rookie, first among players with at least 40 rushes last year, and a successful return from a torn ACL could add another home run threat to the offense.
3. Derrick Henry is still a beast.
Henry rushed for just 4.2 yards per carry last season with the Tennessee Titans, tying a career low. That was mostly a Tennessee Titans problem. Consider:
- Behind an offensive line rated the NFL’s worst by PFF, Henry averaged just 0.85 yards before contact per carry, according to TruMedia, the fifth-lowest rate among 44 qualifying running backs.
- Henry forced 57 missed tackles on 280 carries, fourth most in the NFL, and rushed for a league-high 930 yards after contact, according to PFF.
- Henry’s fastest run — a 69-yard run against the Jacksonville Jaguars (21.68 mph) — hit a higher top speed than any play by a Ravens ball carrier in 2023, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Mitchell weighed a listed 190 pounds when he reached a team-high 20.99 mph last season. Henry weighed a listed 247 pounds.
- Henry converted 10 of his 12 runs in third-and-2 and fourth-and-2 situations, according to TruMedia. Only three running backs with double-digit opportunities had a higher conversion rate.
- Henry led the NFL with 280 carries and didn’t fumble once.
4. Their secondary is elite.
The Ravens ranked No. 1 in the NFL last season in pass defense efficiency, according to FTN. They had the league’s second-best coverage grade, according to PFF.
And now their secondary could be even better. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey, who missed seven games during an up-and-down, injury-plagued 2023, was maybe the team’s best player in camp. Cornerback Brandon Stephens, the team’s top outside cover man last season, will be playing for a potentially lucrative deal in the final year of his rookie contract. In the slot, cornerback Arthur Maulet and safety Ar’Darius Washington flashed playmaking ability in camp.
At safety, the Ravens have one of the NFL’s best young defensive players in Kyle Hamilton. The All-Pro was a star in the slot last year, but he’s a versatile enough weapon to win as a pass rusher, defend the run in the box and patrol center field as a deep-lying safety. Next to him is Marcus Williams, who played through a pectoral injury last year and, with good health, could recapture the form that made him one of the league’s highest-paid safeties upon his arrival in Baltimore two years ago.
If the secondary’s starting-level talent isn’t its greatest strength, the group’s depth is. Wiggins finished the preseason as the NFL’s third-highest-rated cornerback, according to PFF, and Harbaugh said he would be “counted on heavily this year.” First, he’ll have to beat out Jalyn Armour-Davis for playing time. The 2022 fourth-round pick, finally healthy after two trying seasons, was one of the standouts of camp.
Behind them, Eddie Jackson should step in capably for Geno Stone in the Ravens’ three-safety looks, and rookies Sanoussi Kane and Beau Brade are solid building blocks.
5. Their defensive depth is impressive.
Thirteen Ravens who played at least 100 snaps last season earned a defensive grade of at least 70 on PFF, indicating they were above-average contributors — and that group doesn’t even include Stephens or Humphrey. The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers, who finished with top-six defensive efficiencies, had just nine players apiece with at least 70 grades. The Cincinnati Bengals had just four.
After an offseason exodus cut into both the Ravens’ roster and coaching staff, Zach Orr’s defense probably won’t be as deep this season. But it still has high-end potential and reliable production.
Up front, the Ravens return All-Pro defensive lineman Justin Madubuike, who led all interior linemen last season with 13 sacks. Helping him is one of the NFL’s best nose tackle duos, Michael Pierce and Travis Jones.
At outside linebacker, former first-round pick Odafe Oweh has double-digit-sack potential. Kyle Van Noy, at age 33, is unlikely to repeat last year’s nine-sack season, but he should contribute on and off the field with his veteran savvy. Tavius Robinson was a reliable edge-setting presence as a rookie. If David Ojabo and Adisa Isaac, both Day 2 draft picks, can stay healthy and develop under pass rush coach Chuck Smith, the Ravens have a chance at matching last year’s NFL-best sack total (60).
Masterminding everything in the middle is inside linebacker Roquan Smith, one of the NFL’s best players. Next to him will be Trenton Simpson, who outshined him at times in camp. Malik Harrison is a do-everything fixer up front. Chris Board has over 800 snaps of defensive experience.
And then there’s the defensive backfield, with All-Pro potential at cornerback and safety.
6. John Harbaugh is one of the NFL’s best coaches.
This would not have been a popular point to make after, say, January’s AFC championship game, but few coaches have been as adaptable over the years as Harbaugh.
On offense, he’s hired coordinators who helped Jackson win MVP awards with almost diametrically opposed approaches. In 2019, under Greg Roman, the Ravens had the NFL’s most efficient offense, according to FTN, and ranked last in early-down pass rate, according to RBSDM.com. In 2023, under Monken, the Ravens had the NFL’s fourth-most efficient offense and ranked seventh in early-down pass rate. Harbaugh’s aggressiveness on fourth downs has also helped create an edge, though that impulse was largely kept in check last year.
On the other side of the ball, despite coordinator changes and the inherent year-to-year volatility of defenses, he’s overseen one of the NFL’s most consistent forces. The Ravens have finished in the top 10 in defensive DVOA in seven of the past eight seasons, the lone exception being their injury-decimated 2021. Harbaugh’s defensive system has evolved to incorporate the best elements of play-callers he’s worked with, from Dean Pees’ “creepers” and simulated pressures to Don “Wink” Martindale’s blitz packages to Mike Macdonald’s teaching infrastructure and presnap disguises.
Harbaugh’s taken his lumps for the Ravens’ playoff shortcomings since 2018, but the more the team keeps knocking on the door in the postseason, the closer it’ll get to a Super Bowl breakthrough.
7. Their special teams should be special again.
This is another Harbaugh trademark. According to FTN, the Ravens have finished no worse than third in special teams DVOA over each of the past four seasons.
Last year, despite Tucker making less than 87% of his kicks for the second straight season, despite losing All-Pro long snapper Nick Moore to an offseason Achilles tendon tear, despite a disappointing season from Pro Bowl returner Devin Duvernay and a slow start from punter Jordan Stout, the Ravens finished third in overall special teams efficiency.
Harbaugh considers coordinator Chris Horton a rising star in the coaching world. With the NFL’s new kickoff rules, the Ravens could benefit once more from Harbaugh’s special teams background and Horton’s attention to detail.
8. They could have an easier schedule.
After finishing second in the AFC North in 2022, the Ravens were not expected to have one of the NFL’s toughest schedules last season. According to FTN, their projected strength of schedule was just 16th. Instead, it ended up as the league’s fifth-most difficult slate. Just three of their opponents — the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals and Titans — finished with fewer than nine wins.
This year, despite a first-place schedule, the Ravens have only the 21st-ranked slate. Already, injuries have made it easy to poke holes in their brutal early-season stretch:
- In Week 1, the Ravens will face a Chiefs team missing wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and defensive end Charles Omenihu, who had the strip-sack of Jackson in last season’s AFC championship game.
- In Week 3, the Ravens will face a Dallas Cowboys team missing All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland.
- In Week 4, the Ravens will face a Buffalo Bills team missing All-Pro inside linebacker Matt Milano.
- In Week 5, the Ravens will face a Bengals team missing running back Chris Evans and potentially defensive end Myles Murphy, a 2023 first-round pick.
Quarterback questions loom over other teams on their schedule. The Las Vegas Raiders’ Gardner Minshew, Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, Browns’ Deshaun Watson, Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix, Steelers’ Russell Wilson (or Justin Fields) and New York Giants’ Daniel Jones could be among the NFL’s worst — or at least most inconsistent — starters this year. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield is due for a statistical regression. Joe Burrow’s recovery from surgery on his right (throwing) wrist makes the Bengals star an injury risk, too.
9. They could have better injury luck.
The 2023 Ravens were one of the NFL’s most dominant regular-season teams in recent memory. They were also far from the healthiest.
According to FTN, the Ravens finished with the 14th-most “adjusted games lost” to injury last year. On offense, the Ravens lost running back J.K. Dobbins for 16 games, Mitchell for nine games, Andrews for seven games, and wide receiver-returner Duvernay and left tackle Ronnie Stanley for four games, among others with shorter absences. On defense, they lost Washington for 15 games, Ojabo for 14 games, Humphrey for seven games, Williams for six games and outside linebacker Odafe Oweh for four games, among others.
Even those absences didn’t fully capture the team’s injury toll, though. Right tackle Morgan Moses played most of the season with a torn pectoral muscle. Williams gutted out a chest injury, too. Bateman started the season limited by his recovery from Lisfranc (foot) surgery, and right guard Kevin Zeitler ended the season hobbled by a knee injury.
This summer, the Ravens’ health is off to a good start. They made it through camp and the preseason relatively intact, and players have embraced strength and conditioning coordinator Scott Elliott’s new program. Injuries are inevitable in football, but the Ravens could be due some better luck.
10. The Chiefs can’t really three-peat … right?
When the Ravens ran away with the AFC’s No. 1 seed in 2019, the Chiefs finished one spot back in the standings. After the Ravens lost to the Titans in the divisional round, Kansas City won the conference championship handily, then edged the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl for their first title under coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
When the Ravens ran away with the AFC’s No. 1 seed again last season, they finally got the Chiefs in Baltimore for an AFC championship game. Kansas City was banged up. Its wide receivers weren’t very good. Mahomes wasn’t even having a Pro Bowl-level season. Still, Jackson and the defense struggled early, and the Chiefs never trailed before leaving with a 17-10 win. Two weeks later, after a second straight dramatic Super Bowl, they were NFL champions again.
This season, Kansas City is shooting for history. No team has ever won three straight Super Bowls. The Chiefs are preseason favorites. The Ravens are considered their biggest threat in the AFC. History suggests Kansas City faces long odds in completing a three-peat. Basic math suggests Jackson and the Ravens are due to come out of the AFC one of these years.
Could this be the year?
