The Ravens didn’t have to play at M&T Bank Stadium on Saturday, so they practiced there instead. There was value in keeping to a routine, coach John Harbaugh believed, even when that routine meant his team would run around for 90 minutes in an empty venue, preparing for a then-unknown opponent.
“Just even driving down to the stadium, you felt that it’s like a game, because that’s what we do,” Harbaugh said Monday. “We drive to the stadium for our home games. All of that, to me, helped us stay psychologically in the right place.”
Four years after the Ravens’ Super Bowl hopes ended in the wrong place, crushed in the divisional round by the Tennessee Titans, they are back as the AFC’s top seed, eager for redemption. The fourth-seeded Houston Texans stand in their way, led by first-year coach Demeco Ryans and star rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Ravens know all too well what can go wrong Saturday in Baltimore; they also know those memories of 2019 can propel them to a long-awaited playoff breakthrough.
With a win, the Ravens would advance to the AFC championship game for the first time since 2012. With a loss, another season would end in massive disappointment, if not outright failure. Here’s what to watch in the teams’ playoff matchup.
1. Lamar Jackson’s playoff career has not gotten off to a good start. One big reason: The Ravens’ offense hasn’t gotten off to good starts, either.
In their five postseason appearances under former coordinator Greg Roman — four with Jackson (1-3) starting and one with Tyler Huntley (0-1) starting — the Ravens scored a combined zero points in the first quarter. Opponents, meanwhile, averaged 5.8.
Under new coordinator Todd Monken, the Ravens’ offense will enter the postseason with a clean slate and a leg up. In the regular season, the team finished fourth in the NFL in first-quarter points (5.8 per game) and fifth in yards per first-quarter play (6.3), according to TruMedia. (The Texans finished 17th in both.)
Just as important as the Ravens’ early production on offense, though, is their resilience. After the first quarter, no attack has been more efficient than the Ravens’ when trailing this season. Jackson has been the NFL’s best quarterback in those situations, too. He’s 49-for-71 (69%) for 542 yards, four touchdowns and one interception when trailing after the first quarter, with 16 carries for 128 yards (8 per carry) and a touchdown.
On Tuesday, Jackson was asked about his confidence level in a Ravens playoff offense that, under Roman, never scored more than 20 points in a game. “Very confident,” he said. “Very, very confident. Extremely confident.”
2. Jackson saw a lot of Texans defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. and Jonathan Greenard in Week 1.
According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Anderson finished with six quarterback pressures (26.1% pressure rate) and one sack in his NFL debut, while Greenard had two pressures (8.3% rate) and a sack. Jackson was sacked four times overall and struggled with his accuracy when pressured, finishing 4-for-9 for 44 yards and an interception.
Even in defeat, Anderson and Greenard seemed to set the tone for the season to come. Houston finished third in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, which measures how often a pass rusher beats his block within 2.5 seconds. Anderson, the No. 3 overall pick, was third among edge rushers in win rate (26%), behind only the Dallas Cowboys’ Micah Parsons and Cleveland Browns’ Myles Garrett, while Greenard finished sixth (22%).
“They’re good players,” left tackle Ronnie Stanley said Thursday. “They set that edge well. They play a hard and physical game. It’s going to be a challenge, but we’re up for it.”
Injuries have undercut the Ravens’ pass protection at times, but they could also weaken Houston’s pass rush Saturday. Greenard, limited by an ankle injury, played just 15 defensive snaps in the Texans’ wild-card-round win Saturday over the Cleveland Browns. Anderson, also dealing with a late-season ankle injury, was limited to 37 defensive snaps, just over half of Houston’s total. The duo made the most of their time on the field, though, combining for 11 pressures and a sack.
Anderson and Greenard are expected to play Saturday, but neither was a full participant in practice this week. A reduced workload for them could be a relief for Jackson and the Ravens’ passing offense. On his five Week 1 drop-backs against a Houston defense missing both pass rushers, Jackson went 5-for-5 for 44 yards and wasn’t pressured once, according to TruMedia.
3. No defense faced an end-of-season gauntlet quite like the Ravens’.
From Week 14 to Week 18, they took on three of the NFL’s six best offenses, as measured by FTN’s weighted efficiency metrics — the San Francisco 49ers (No. 1), Los Angeles Rams (No. 4) and Miami Dolphins (No. 6) — plus two middle-of-the-road units: the Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 15) and Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 16).
Despite a couple of key injuries and a low-stakes Week 18 loss to Pittsburgh, the Ravens more than held their own. Over the season’s final five weeks, according to TruMedia, their defense finished ninth in expected points added per play and 10th in success rate.
The Ravens’ late-season recipe for success, however, might not be sustainable. Their 12 takeaways in their final five games — the most in the NFL in that span — did a lot of heavy lifting for the defense. On drives that did not end with a fumble or interception, the Ravens ranked 19th in EPA per play and 20th in success rate. Over the season’s first 13 weeks, they’d ranked first and second, respectively.
“We’re not relying on takeaways,” defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, whose Ravens led the NFL in the category, said Wednesday. “We’re trying to create takeaways at all times. But that’s how you attack the football and how you play through your rules, and then plays will be made that way. We’re not just chasing takeaways at the expense of giving up yards or points.”
Takeaways might not come as freely Saturday. Houston finished with an NFL-low 14 turnovers in the regular season.
4. Almost every week, the Ravens’ defense seems to swing from one branch of the Shanahan coaching tree to another.
In Week 14, it was Rams coach Sean McVay. In Week 16, it was 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan. In Week 17, it was Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel. Now, once again, it’s Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik. The four play-callers all oversee offenses tied to the ever-expanding legacy of former Denver Broncos coach Mike Shanhan — Kyle’s father — who built his rushing and passing attack around the outside-zone running schemes that he and offensive line coach Alex Gibbs popularized.
While each coach’s schemes have diverged over the years, play-action passes remain a pillar of Shanahan-inspired playbooks. On run fakes this season, Stroud was one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks, completing 65.3% of his passes for 1,309 yards (an elite 11.1 yards per attempt), eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
The Ravens should be well prepared, and not just because of their familiarity with the offenses. In their three late-season games against Shanahan tree coaches, their defense allowed just 16 completions on 29 play-action passes (55.2% accuracy) for 203 yards, no touchdowns and one interception.
“You get to know those systems and how they work, but every different coaching staff puts their spin on it,” Harbaugh said. “They adapt a system for the players differently. You just have to take every team as they come, and every team is unique in how they do it.”
5. The Ravens will open their postseason in the freezing cold. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be in the mid- to high 20s and drop over the next few hours. Forecasts are also calling for wind gusts over 20 mph.
Neither quarterback has much experience in ice-cold conditions. Jackson has started just one game in which the temperature at kickoff was 32 degrees or lower, according to TruMedia, and that came as a rookie. In a 27-24 overtime road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, Jackson went 13-for-24 for 147 yards and two touchdowns and added 14 carries for 67 yards.
Stroud played in occasionally grim weather conditions over his two years as a starter at Ohio State, but he has been largely protected from the cold this year. The roof of Houston’s NRG Stadium is rarely open, and Stroud missed the one outdoor game the Texans played in the regular season when the temperature was under 50 degrees at kickoff.
“I’ve never been lined up before the ball is snapped and been like, ‘Damn, it’s cold.’ But, yes, it’s just something to get used to in the pregame — get your mind right.”
Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton
The Ravens and Texans’ best preparation for Saturday might have been their own local weather. The Ravens practiced outside, in close-to-freezing temperature, on Wednesday and Thursday. Houston, meanwhile, had a high in the mid-30s Tuesday.
“I think as long as you know what you need to wear, make sure you prepare, make sure you wear the proper things that will help you while you’re standing around on the sideline, but once you hit the field, you’re going to get cold,” Houston’s Ryans told local reporters Monday. “And, again, I would say, ‘Who cares? Let’s go.’ We’ve got to find a way to make plays.”
“I never really think about it during the game,” Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton said Wednesday. “I’ve never been lined up before the ball is snapped and been like, ‘Damn, it’s cold.’ But, yes, it’s just something to get used to in the pregame — get your mind right.”
