Before Kyle Bradish’s breakout a season a year ago and Corbin Burnes’ rotation-changing acquisition this winter, the mantel of soon-to-be Orioles ace belonged to Grayson Rodriguez.
I still think that’s his future.
His present is quite good, too. He’s comfortably floating in the land between top-end starter and mid-rotation starter — and is probably closer to the former — and that assessment is likely why the last couple of weeks played out the way they did for the Orioles before the trade deadline.
It’s hard to upgrade on Rodriguez as a No. 2 starter. And with Burnes as steady at the top as he’s been, there may not be a more pivotal spot on the Orioles’ roster than what happens the day after him in the rotation. For that reason, Rodriguez feels like a great option to fill it — and has demonstrated that for over a year now.
Rodriguez was promoted back to the big leagues on July 17, 2023. He had a 2.58 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP and 8.6 strikeouts per nine in 76 2/3 innings from that point until the end of last year, and in 116 2/3 innings this season has a 3.86 ERA with 10 strikeouts per nine and a 1.24 WHIP. The 24-year-old Texan outperformed his peripherals some last year and is slightly underperforming them this year, and in what amounts to almost a full season since his return to the majors, Rodriguez has a 3.35 ERA, 9.5 strikeouts per nine, and a 1.18 WHIP in 193 1/3 innings.
Of the 140 pitchers with at least 100 innings in that span, Rodriguez ranks 28th in ERA, 27th in strikeout rate, and 16th in FIP (fielding-independent pitching, which computes an ERA based on strikeouts, walks and home runs). There quite simply aren’t a lot of teams that have that kind of ability in the No. 2 slot in their rotation, and a recent quirk in the playoff schedule makes that particularly important.
Should the Orioles win the AL East and be able to line up their rotation, a scheduled off-day between Games 1 and 2 of the American League Division Series means Rodriguez can start Game 2 on Monday, Oct. 7 and come back for a potential Game 5 on Oct. 12 on four days’ rest. Burnes, similarly, would be on regular rest for a Game 4 start following a Game 1 assignment.
The whole idea of starting those two in the first two games is to win them, and not need a fourth or fifth game. Because, well, baseball is baseball, it’s not always that simple. Rodriguez will have to overcome some playoff ghosts to hold up his end of the bargain.
But when you draw up a pitcher to slot in as part of the top half of your rotation, the idea is for them to do what Rodriguez has done this year. He’s completed at least five innings in 19 of his 20 starts, and allowed two earned runs or fewer in 14 of those. Pitcher wins are properly devalued, but it’s important to note that of his 13, seven have come after an Orioles loss. He also snapped the team’s five-game losing streak with seven strong innings on June 26 and a three-game losing streak on May 23 at Chicago.
He’s had a clunker or two mixed in, but they’re infrequent. And if he keeps this up, Rodriguez’s own trajectory has a chance to track well with the Orioles as a team. There’s a real chance for these Orioles to take the next step and climb from really good to great. It will require beating the Yankees for the division and taking advantage of a potentially favorable playoff format to do it.
And it will take Rodriguez sustaining his best for that to happen.
Ballpark chatter
“The way he can stay on the baseball is much improved. … He’s a really, really young player. But it’s great to see him swing the bat this way this series.”
— Orioles manager Brandon Hyde on Jackson Holliday’s return
It’s hard to overstate how impressive Holliday has been since his return, and how important that is to the Orioles’ lineup down the stretch. He’s put 13 balls in play, averaging 97.7 mph at seven degrees off the bat. His hard-hit percentage is 84.6%, which goes a long way to explaining why he’s 7-for-18 with a pair of home runs (for reference, Gunnar Henderson leads the team, and is fourth in all of MLB, with a 56.5% hard-hit percentage.)
Holliday’s work to get back to the majors and the organization’s work to help him focus it have clearly paid off. I’ll never be convinced it couldn’t have happened in the majors, but the end result once he was sent down was always going to be the same: He’d be a much better hitter than the one who was demoted. So far, that’s playing out.
🚀 The Talent Pipeline
Something quite interesting happened on the minor league off day Monday. As part of a wave of roster moves at Low-A Delmarva, the Orioles brought 18-year-old right-hander Keeler Morfe stateside and straight to affiliated ball. With the Florida Complex League season finished, this was the best opportunity to continue challenging an arm that has the makings of a special one. Signed out of Venezuela in 2023, Morfe throws a high-90s fastball that’s hit 100 mph this year in addition to a change-up and slider and struck out 38 in 22 innings with a 0.86 WHIP and 0.82 ERA in the Dominican Summer League. The “Orioles On The Verge” crew has some more background here.
As a fun exercise, let’s see if anyone in my household reads this newsletter with the following statement: I really, really hope I can make it out to Delmarva to see him pitch before the season ends.
By the numbers
95.7
It’s always prudent to tread lightly on out-of-nowhere relievers, but it feels notable that Burch Smith’s fastball is over a full mile per hour firmer (95.7 mph) since joining the Orioles than it was earlier in the season with the Marlins, where he averaged 94.4 mph with his heater. The results have been better as well, both actual and expected, and the pitch likely plays up thanks to both the velocity and the fact that he’s throwing it less often (44.7% with Baltimore versus 52.8% with the Marlins), further keeping hitters off balance. Put another tick on the scoreboard for Mike Snyder’s pro scouting department.
📖 For further reading
🔮 Unpacking the projections: Personal favorite Dan Szymborski updated his ZiPS projections after the trade deadline, and the Orioles’ moves to shore up their rotation boosted their odds to win the World Series from 10.7% to a league-best 16%. It also swung the division odds in their favor. (FanGraphs)
🆕 Eloy Jiménez’s start: Jiménez is off to quite a start for the Orioles, and Danielle Allentuck has a look at what has helped him settle in quickly. I don’t think it’s possible to communicate how miserable it is to be on or around a team as bad as the White Sox are, or to escape the pervasive feeling that nothing matters for such a club. The opposite must be so refreshing for him, and it shows. (The Baltimore Banner)
