The NFL is rarely treated to Week 16 games as good as Monday night’s.
According to the league, the Ravens’ prime-time showdown against the San Francisco 49ers (11-3) will mark just the third regular-season matchup in modern NFL history between teams with the best outright record in each conference in December or later.
It might just be the best game of the year. And the Ravens (11-3) might just need their best game of the year to win it.
”I don’t think we have played our best game yet,” coach John Harbaugh said Wednesday. “For sure, we haven’t played our best game yet. That’s something you work for, we talk about all the time. We try to improve all the time, and we had a really good practice, and we’re continuing to try and do that and put our best game in front of us still.”
The Christmas Day battle royale at Levi’s Stadium will have something for everyone: two NFL Most Valuable Player favorites, Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy; two of the NFL’s best linebackers, Roquan Smith and Fred Warner; and an intriguing chess match between an ascendant defensive whiz, Mike Macdonald, and a certified offensive mastermind, Kyle Shanahan.
Here’s what to watch in their Week 16 matchup.
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1. It wasn’t long ago that the Ravens and 49ers delivered the NFL a possible Super Bowl preview in December.
Four years ago, in Week 13, the 9-2 Ravens met 10-1 San Francisco in a rainy, sloppy, early-afternoon game in Baltimore. Jackson, on his way to NFL Most Valuable Player honors, led the Ravens’ rapidly improving offense. Jimmy Garoppolo, who a year earlier had become the NFL’s highest-paid player, commanded a balanced 49ers offense.
At the end of a nip-and-tuck game, kicker Justin Tucker nailed a 49-yard field goal as time expired, securing a 20-17 win. The Ravens would run away with the AFC’s top seed. The 49ers, meanwhile, rebounded, winning three of their final four games to finish 13-3 and atop the NFC.
But only one team advanced to the Super Bowl. The Tennessee Titans stunned the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium in the divisional round. San Francisco rolled to an NFC title before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs, 31-20, in Super Bowl LIV. By then, the 49ers’ Week 13 loss was a distant memory.
“We just have to take it one game at a time,” Marlon Humphrey, an All-Pro cornerback on the Ravens’ 2019 team, said Wednesday. “If this could be a [preview] of the Super Bowl, I’d love it. That means we’ve taken care of business and got there, but right now it’s really good to have a really good challenge Monday on Christmas Day.”
Said Jackson: “Super Bowl is in February. We’re in December right now. We have to focus on Monday night. I’m not worried about what people are saying.”
2. When the game is hanging in the balance, offensive coordinator Todd Monken said Thursday, Jackson wants the ball in his hands.
“He wants the opportunity to make a play,” Monken said. “That’s what he’s done his whole life. It makes sense that he would want that. Take any great player, elite player, they want to be at bat when the game’s on the line.”
But, for at least the early stages of Monday’s showdown, the Ravens’ better option — their safer option — might be their running game.
With left tackle Ronnie Stanley and right tackle Morgan Moses struggling at times, Jackson was pressured on 45.7% of his drop-backs in Sunday’s win over Jacksonville, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. He was sacked three times and penalized for intentional grounding.
The Jaguars rank 18th in the NFL in pressure rate; the 49ers are a cut above. With defensive ends Nick Bosa and Chase Young on the field together, according to TruMedia, San Francisco has ranked second in the NFL in pressure rate (44.3%) and a runaway first in sack rate (10.1%).
The 49ers’ run defense is more forgiving. While it ranks third in rushing yards per game allowed (89.4), San Francisco’s overpowering attack has covered up some flaws. Its run defense ranks 18th in DVOA, according to FTN, and allowed 234 yards (7.8 yards per carry) in Sunday’s win over the Arizona Cardinals. The 49ers were without starting defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead, who also missed Thursday’s practice with injuries.
The Ravens’ read-option attack, even with rookie running back Keaton Mitchell sidelined, could be especially dangerous. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Cardinals averaged 12.3 yards per carry on their four option looks Sunday.
“Keep sustaining the blocks, try to get the lead early, build that confidence in the coaches to call those run plays,” center Tyler Linderbaum said Wednesday. “Upfront, we’ve just got to do our best — block our guys, block our assignments and let the running backs do the rest.”
3. If Jackson and Purdy are the most important starters in Sunday’s game, Warner could have a case for third place. Few linebackers are better equipped to limit Jackson where he’s most effective as a passer than the two-time All-Pro.
Despite how often San Francisco’s opponents have resorted to pass-heavy attacks in comeback bids this season, the 49ers have faced just 27 passes over the intermediate middle third of the field (10 to 19 yards downfield), according to NGS, the eighth fewest in the NFL. Opponents have completed just 14 of them, sixth fewest in the NFL.
Jackson has expanded his passing range both vertically and horizontally over the years, but the middle is where he’s been most comfortable. Since 2019, he’s averaged 0.62 expected points added per drop-back when throwing to that area of the field, eighth best in that span. Much of that sweet-spot production has come on completions to tight end Mark Andrews, but Isaiah Likely has stepped up in his absence.
“Lamar’s always been a heck of a playmaker,” Warner told local reporters Thursday. “The things that he can do with his legs and throwing the football are incredible, and for sure going to be our toughest opponent this season.”
4. The 49ers don’t just disorient defenses with their presnap motion and positional flexibility. Their actual structure matters, too.
According to NGS, San Francisco has lined up with the narrowest formations in the league, with an average of 19.8 yards separating the widest players on the left and right sides of its offense. (The Cincinnati Bengals, meanwhile, have the NFL’s widest formations, with an average left-to-right separation of 27.3 yards.)
The 49ers are happy to operate out of condensed formations; no one in the NFL uses them more (63.9%), and only two other teams line up in bunched-together looks on even half of their offensive snaps. The Los Angeles Rams, who had their way at times with the Ravens’ defense in a Week 14 road loss, are one; the Miami Dolphins, who’ll come to Baltimore in Week 17, are the other.
All three offenses rely on exotic motions and balanced attacks to probe defenses’ structural integrity. With less space between players on offense, there’s less space between the defenders covering them. That also means there’s less time to sort out route distributions when a receiver hurries from Point A to Point B, warping the look of the offense.
“Definitely testing your eye discipline, definitely testing your communication, which is obviously one of the reasons why they do it — [and] changing the run fits,” Macdonald, the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, said Thursday. “Every play — every motion, really — should have a rhyme or reason why they’re doing it, based on what they’re trying to achieve. You just don’t know in real time until after the play.”
5. The race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed is effectively down to three teams. But, as the regular-season finish line approaches, the Ravens aren’t in imminent danger of losing their lead.
According to The New York Times’ playoff picture, the Ravens have about a 74% chance of claiming home-field advantage through the AFC championship game, far ahead of the Miami Dolphins (12%) and Kansas City Chiefs (12%). A setback Monday wouldn’t be catastrophic, either; with a loss, the Ravens’ hopes of earning the conference’s top seed would fall to just 66%.
Their Week 17 game against Miami (10-4) is, for now, the most important on their schedule. Here’s how the next two weeks could affect the probability of the Ravens finishing atop the AFC.
- Win vs. 49ers and loss to Dolphins: 71%
- Loss to 49ers and win vs. Dolphins: 94%
- Wins vs. 49ers and Dolphins: 100%
- Losses to 49ers and Dolphins: 10%
With wins over the next two weeks to wrap up the No. 1 seed, the Ravens could rest their starters in their regular-season finale against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’d also get a bye in the wild-card round.
The Dolphins end their regular-season slate with home games against the NFC East-leading Dallas Cowboys (10-4), whom they face Sunday, and the surging Buffalo Bills (8-6), whom they face in Week 18. The Chiefs (9-5) have home games against the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) and Bengals (8-6), a potential playoff team, before traveling to face the Los Angeles Chargers (5-9).
