In the US Senate primary, will the Baltimore region decide the winner?

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore stood in a West Baltimore park under cloudy skies, gripping a microphone that only worked intermittently, and laid out the geography of the race to represent the state in the U.S. Senate.

“We saw back in 2022, the road to Annapolis, it runs through Baltimore,” he said to scattered applause from the crowd. “And so does the road to Capitol Hill. It runs through Baltimore.”

The governor handed over the mic to his chosen candidate in the Senate race, Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who predicted: “Victory will be ours.”

A day later across town in Mount Vernon, David Trone, the other leading Democratic contender, was in one of his campaign offices, thanking volunteers for working the phones and knocking on doors.

“Baltimore City is the center of this race. We’ve said that over and over,” boomed the congressman from Montgomery County. “We have to be the senator from Baltimore City and help Baltimore come back to some of the greatness we’ve had.”

Statewide candidates always make promises and pledges that they’ll work to help Baltimore thrive. It’s the state’s largest city and one of its economic centers, a community with both challenges and opportunities.

But the Baltimore region also represents something crucial to candidates: It’s a significant source of votes, especially Democratic ones.

When it comes to the math of the election, Baltimore City does not have the population or the voters it once did. Prince George’s County has the distinction of having the most Democratic voters.

But compare the D.C. region with the Baltimore region, and it’s a closer match.

Prince George’s and Montgomery counties combined have about 860,000 Democratic voters.

Put together Baltimore City and Baltimore, Howard and Anne Arundel counties, and there are about 896,000 registered voters. And a competitive mayoral race in the city could drive up turnout in Baltimore.

With no strong Baltimore-affiliated candidate in the race, the region is fertile ground for the contenders to campaign and pile up votes.

“Prince George’s and Montgomery counties will probably cancel each other out,” said Malcolm Drewery, an associate professor of sociology and anthropology at Morgan State University “That leaves Baltimore County and Baltimore City as the battleground area.”

There’s a recent precedent for that dynamic. In the 2022 Democratic primary for governor, Moore had strong support, and Alsobrooks’ backing, in Prince George’s County. His top rival, Tom Perez, hailed from Montgomery County. Moore won Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Baltimore County — Perez won Howard County — and Moore’s margin winning those jurisdictions was nearly equal to his final statewide advantage.

Expanding their reach

For Trone and Alsobrooks, that means moving beyond their home turf and introducing themselves to the rest of the state.

Both have been working to get their names out, shore up support and connect with voters in Baltimore and its suburbs. As Trone sent off his Baltimore campaign volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls, he had two state senators by his side, Katherine Klausmeier from the county and Jill P. Carter from the city.

“Baltimore City is the center of this race!” Trone boomed to the room full of volunteers.

Klausmeier said she met with Trone after he called several times, and walked away impressed with his commitment to protecting reproductive choice, helping returning citizens and the combating the opioid crisis.

“All of those great, great things, I said, ‘I’ll support you 100%,’” Klausmeier said. “Since then, I have been — I call myself a ‘Trone girl,’ but I’m a ‘Trone woman.’”

A few days later, each candidate took turns offering their pitches during a conference put on by Anne Arundel County-based Caucus of African American Leaders.

And that night, Alsobrooks unveiled support from a Baltimore political legend, retired U.S. Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski, during a fundraiser at a brewery in the city.

In an interview, Trone said the Baltimore region is “the key region in this race.”

“Baltimore needs a lot of help: A lot of help in education, a lot of help in crime, a lot of help in infrastructure, a lot of help in housing,” he said. “We’re trying to make Baltimore City the center of everything we’re doing in this campaign.”

Alsobrooks, meanwhile, often mentions that she went to law school at the University of Maryland and worked as a law clerk in both Baltimore and Howard County.

Baltimore, she said in an interview, is “incredibly important.”

“The health of Baltimore determines the health of the rest of the state,” she said. Alsobrooks noted she’s built relationships with the metro area’s elected officials, including the governor, who lived in Baltimore before being elected in 2022.

“Baltimoreans can get, in me, a person who understands Baltimoreans,” she said. “Not just the issues, but the people of Baltimore, I understand their lives and concerns and I will be advocating and working hard to make sure we address the concerns.”

During a rally last weekend in Baltimore, Alsobrooks was flanked by several of her political endorsers from the city and the county.

“We’re all united from Baltimore City and Baltimore County. So much is on the line right now,” said Del. Stephanie Smith. “Democracy is on the line. Reproductive access is on the line and, quite frankly, Maryland is not for sale. The people will power this election. And the people will be standing with Angela Alsobrooks.”

Making choices

Voters will make their choices based on any number of factors, said David Karol, an associate professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland, College Park, and geography is just one of them. The office of senator is statewide and with national implications, so some may be looking at policy issues like abortion access or immigration reform. Others may lean into a candidate’s experience or personality.

Antonio Womack, a health technology entrepreneur and developer from Baltimore’s Ashburton neighborhood, said he values Trone’s business background.

“When I look at the field, David comes off to me as not only being super straightforward, but sincere and committed to the work,” Womack said. “I’m an entrepreneur. He comes from an entrepreneurial background. I can identify that.”

Womack said he also appreciates that Trone is putting his own money into the campaign — $57 million so far — because that means he’s not seeking to get rich off of politics.

“He’s bringing a lot of strengths to the table. He is clearly not in it for a paycheck or a pension,” Womack said. “There are too many politicians who are not in it for the right reasons. He’s wealthy enough that this is not an issue.”

Trone has put his money to use with a barrage of TV and radio ads and endless flyers in voters’ mailboxes.

Stephanie Sandler, who lives in the suburb of Glen Burnie, said she’s sick of all the Trone ads in her mail. “First of all, it’s archaiac. Number two: Don’t clutter my mailbox with your crap,” she said.

Sandler, an office manager, is backing Alsobrooks, after first learning about her in an email newsletter from Anne Arundel County Executive Steuart Pittman, who she thinks has done well for the county. She also values the perspective Alsobrooks will bring to the Senate as a woman and a former prosecutor.

Sandler is confident Alsobrooks would look out for the Baltimore region, even though she’s from the D.C. suburbs. “I don’t think it matters where she hails from. She’ll be a senator for all of us,” she said.

Womack had a similar assessment of Trone: “Just because he’s not from Baltimore, it’s not going to matter. His job [as senator] obviously is statewide.”

A battleground area

When The Washington Post and the University of Maryland polled the race in March, they found each candidate fared well in their home county.

In Montgomery, Trone was up over Alsobrooks, 49%-16%. The numbers were flipped in Prince George’s, where Alsobrooks held a 53%-19% advantage.

In the rest of Central Maryland, Trone led Alsobrooks, 38% to 20% — contributing to his statewide lead of 34% to 27%.

A few weeks later, a poll from The Baltimore Banner and Goucher College found Trone with 42% to 33% for Alsobrooks. In that poll, Alsobrooks led in the D.C. suburbs (Prince George’s and Montgomery combined), 43%-37%, while Trone led in the Baltimore/Central Maryland region, 45%-25%.

Michael Hanmer, director of the University of Maryland’s Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement, which conducted The Post’s poll, said the results indicated that both candidates have legwork to do to get voters across the state familiar with them.

“There were significant pockets of people who just weren’t that familiar with either of the candidates,” Hanmer said.

“It’s likely that who wins Baltimore, who wins Baltimore County and these other large places where they are just not as well known — who breaks through, I think could be a deciding factor,” Hanmer said.

Drewery, of Morgan State, said Alsobrooks’ sign game has been strong in the Baltimore area, with her signs often posted next to those of well-known U.S. Rep. Kweisi Mfume. Trone, meanwhile, has been running plenty of ads in the region.

Drewery noted other geographic factors could be at play as well. Trone might to try pile up as many votes as possible in the lower-population Western Maryland counties he represents in Congress. And Charles County has seen an influx of residents moving in from Prince George’s — who may bring with them either support or distaste for Alsobrooks, depending on their reasons for moving.

No matter where the candidates are campaigning, Drewery said they should be making the case that they are the strongest candidate to beat Hogan in the general election and keep the U.S. Senate in Democratic control.

“This is going to be a close race. I think at the end of it, who can beat Larry Hogan?” he said. “Baltimore City and Baltimore County will have to think about it.”

Pamela Wood

pamela.wood@thebaltimorebanner.com

Pamela Wood covers Maryland politics and government. She previously reported for The Baltimore Sun, The Capital and other Maryland newspapers. A graduate of the University of Maryland, College Park, she lives in northern Anne Arundel County.

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