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When Brandon Hyde thinks back on how he felt this time a year ago, while looking around a bullpen made up of cast-offs and unproven talent, he remembers not knowing what to think.
To assume right-hander Félix Bautista would make his major league debut and turn into one of the most electrifying late-game relievers would have been wildly optimistic. The same goes for left-hander Cionel Pérez, who had allowed nearly as many runs as innings pitched for the Cincinnati Reds in 2021.
“This time last year,” Hyde said, “had you asked me who our bullpen was, I would’ve had no idea.”
Heading into this season, though, Hyde has more certainty and wouldn’t be wrong to even feel a sense of optimism — if he was the type to allow himself such feelings.
Last year, Bautista, Pérez and others arrived and then performed at a level beyond Baltimore’s wildest dreams. They played a large part in creating the most improved pitching staff Major League Baseball has seen in 91 years, with the relievers accounting for a 5.70 ERA in 2021 before dropping to 3.49 last year.
The outlook of any bullpen can be volatile, however. It’s a fickle group, with season-to-season swings leaving future performance uncertain. But this Orioles bullpen, which features a new back-end arm in right-hander Mychal Givens, will enter 2023 with raised expectations.
They’re no longer an unknown commodity. Whether they can repeat the magic of last season, though, is a major sticking point with pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training this week.
“I don’t know how we can be much better,” right-hander Joey Krehbiel said. “All of us at one point were doing really, really well. We weren’t pitching better than we thought we could. We were doing what we practiced and prepared ourselves to do. So, honestly, we just need to repeat. That’s the hardest thing, is being able to repeat.”
The performances across the board impressed.
Of the eight relievers who made 25 or more appearances, seven of them finished with ERAs under 4.00. Two of them — Pérez and right-hander Jorge López, before he was traded at the deadline — held ERAs under 2.00. Three of them allowed fewer than one walk or hit an inning. Seven of them managed an ERA+ above league average, with Pérez at a whopping 287 (100 is average). The group accounted for a combined 45 saves and struck out 483 batters in 481 2/3 innings.
But now it’s a new season, with the added pressure of enhanced expectations.
“For a lot of us, it’s just building on what we did the previous year,” right-hander Dillon Tate said. “But at the same time, looking forward and pushing forward and not being too far in the past. So, 2022 was a good year, and it’s done, and now this is the only year that really matters.”
What worked for the Orioles bullpen can be broken into multiple factors. The pitching staff, under the direction of Chris Holt, has thrived at maximizing player potential by working hand-in-hand with the analytics department. The relievers understand which of their pitches are most successful — and perhaps most importantly, they know which not to throw to certain hitters, or in certain locations.
There’s another thing: More than ever, the Orioles emphasized throwing strikes, having their catchers set up more down the middle to avoid the tendency to be too fine near the corners of the zone. Orioles relievers threw 52.1% of their pitches in the strike zone, according to FanGraphs, which was tied for the second-highest strike zone total in 2022.
They benefited from standout defense behind them, with shortstop Jorge Mateo deserving of a Gold Glove, center fielder Cedric Mullins earning a nomination for one and third baseman Ramón Urías actually earning one.
And they also benefited from some luck.
Of those eight relievers who made at least 25 appearances, right-hander Bryan Baker was the only one with an actual ERA higher than the expected ERA Statcast calculation.
For as good a year as Pérez had (1.40 ERA), his expected ERA was 3.62. Tate, Bautista, Krehbiel, López, left-hander Nick Vespi and left-hander Keegan Akin were all in a similar place, with an expected ERA higher than their actual output.
To tightrope out of those situations shows the guile of the bullpen. But finding themselves in those situations could also show the turbulent nature of a bullpen.
Unlike last offseason, Hyde knows how his bullpen will shape up on opening day. The optimism Hyde feels is rooted in the strong 2022 campaigns across the board. But with that comes pressure — and a sense of intrigue as to whether the Baltimore bullpen can find a way to repeat it.
“There’s definitely more expectations this year, as there should be, based off what we did last year,” Baker said. “I think that’s probably a good thing.”
andy.kostka@thebaltimorebanner.com
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Andy Kostka is an Orioles beat writer for The Baltimore Banner. He previously covered the Orioles for The Baltimore Sun. Kostka graduated from the University of Maryland and grew up in Rockville.
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