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Terrin Vavra can do the math in his head, calculating the dwindling number of open roster spots before spring training even begins. The Orioles utilityman made his major league debut last season, etching out a role at second base and in the corner outfield.
But heading into 2023, when Baltimore has elevated expectations and officially declared the rebuild over, the opportunities are slimmer for a player who may not command an everyday role at a single position. And Vavra knows it.
“There’s not a lot of holes in the lineup,” Vavra admitted over the weekend at an Orioles Caravan event.
That makes his versatility even more important. Late last season, the 25-year-old began fielding grounders ahead of games at first base. He didn’t need any urging from Orioles leadership to continue the practice this winter.
After all, he’s a left-handed hitter. And the Orioles haven’t been shy about their intention of finding a left-handed bat to pair with Ryan Mountcastle at first base — they’ve loaded the upper minors with non-roster spring training invitees who will compete for that position.
Vavra could be among them. And based on his first season in the majors, Vavra — while not a traditional first baseman — could make the case in spring training for a roster spot based on his newly developed ability at first. But whether he is a true candidate depends on what executive vice president and general manager Mike Elias envisions from the position.
The cast of characters includes: Ryan O’Hearn, acquired from the Kansas City Royals; Lewin Díaz, tossed around on waivers before sticking in Baltimore’s organization; Franchy Cordero, a free-agent pickup from Boston; and, perhaps unexpectedly, Vavra.
“We’ve got a really numerous group off the roster right now,” Elias said. “I think it will be a really interesting competition as it currently stands for one of the bigger competitions in camp. That said, there are some players on the free agent market that still interest us and it’s just going to be a matter of kind of where that lands from a contract standpoint, whether we want to jump in on it.”
The first three all have something Vavra doesn’t: They’ve shown the potential to hit for power in their careers, a plus that might somewhat make up for low on-base percentages and a lack of defensive versatility.
Vavra, meanwhile, cranked his first career home run on the final day of Baltimore’s breakout 2022 season. It was an anomaly — Vavra has hit 36 home runs in nearly 2,000 plate appearances in college, a collegiate wood bat league and in professional ball.
But Vavra has something none of the other three options do: an ability to get on base at a high percentage. That, plus his ability to play across the field, could give Baltimore more roster flexibility.
In his 40 games for Baltimore last season, Vavra hit .258 with a .340 on-base percentage and a .677 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. That built on the .435 on-base percentage Vavra held while with Triple-A Norfolk.
Neither O’Hearn nor Díaz had an on-base percentage higher than Cordero’s .300. O’Hearn hit .239 with one homer and a .611 OPS in 67 games and Díaz batted .169 in 58 games for the Miami Marlins with a .512 OPS. Cordero, the best of the three, hit .219 in 84 games for the Red Sox, powering eight homers in 242 at-bats. He can also slot into a corner outfield spot if needed.
Vavra’s OPS+ — a measure where 100 indicates a league average hitter — was 94 in 2022. But Cordero (92), O’Hearn (73) and Díaz (44) all performed at similar or lower levels.
More advanced metrics reflect most favorably on Cordero, whose 45.5 hard hit percentage was coupled with a max exit velocity of 117.9 mph (good for the 99th percentile in the league).
As a contact hitter, Vavra doesn’t stand out. He hit 23.6% of his balls with an exit velocity of 95 mph or faster. He walked more than any of them (11.7%), however, and struck out far less frequently (18.4%). There’s value in both.
And there’s especially value in the ability to play yet another position, potentially filling one of the last remaining roster holes entering spring training.
“I’ve been working on it. It’s something that the more I take reps over there, the better it gets, or the more comfortable it gets,” Vavra said. “I don’t think until I really play a game over there I’ll truly feel the most comfortable, but that’s what spring training is for. I think I’ll get some opportunities to showcase that, and showcase other talents, and try to make my case.”
andy.kostka@thebaltimorebanner.com
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Andy Kostka is an Orioles beat writer for The Baltimore Banner. He previously covered the Orioles for The Baltimore Sun. Kostka graduated from the University of Maryland and grew up in Rockville.
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