Baltimore may have cooled off a bit this week, but the current forecast calls for temperature in the 80s this weekend. You might want to get used to it. Maryland is likely to see a warmer and wetter summer than average, according to the latest seasonal outlook from forecasters.

Most of Maryland has a 50%-60% chance of seeing warmer than average temperatures and the entire state has a 33%-40% chance of seeing more precipitation than average for the months of May, June and July, according to the latest three-month seasonal outlook published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

The average summer temperature in Maryland is between 64 degrees in the far western part of the state and 72-76 degrees for most of the state, including in Baltimore. The western part of the state sees an average of 12-13 inches of rain, while Baltimore and much of the Eastern Shore sees a bit more, an average of 13-14 inches of rain, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.

A seasonal outlook is not a weather report — this is not a guarantee that every day this summer will be blisteringly hot or that the region will see massive rainstorms every day. The seasonal averages are predicted to be higher than normal, but day-to-day conditions will vary.

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This fits with a climate trend in the United States: The last 30 or so years (1991-2020) have been warmer and wetter on the East Coast than the previous grouping (1981-2010).

A wetter, warmer climate is probably what Baltimore — and Maryland — will continue to have in the future because of climate change. One expert from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science said one way to think about Maryland’s climate future is to imagine taking the current conditions of the Deep South and plopping them on top of Maryland.

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There’s also a 60% chance that La Niña conditions develop later in the summer, according to the Climate Prediction Center. La Niña and El Niño are climate patters in the Pacific Ocean that affect weather around the globe. La Niña typically means warmer and drier conditions in the south and cooler conditions in the north, and can mean a more intense hurricane season.

Cody Boteler

cody.boteler@thebaltimorebanner.com

Cody Boteler

Cody Boteler is a reporter on The Banner’s Express Desk, reporting on breaking news, trending stories and interesting things in and around Baltimore. His work has appeared in The Baltimore Sun, USA TODAY, Baltimore magazine and others.

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